KSSKohl's Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.46 · now $16.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KSS has typically landed between $12.63 and $21.29 — a range of −23.3% to +29.3% from the issuance price $16.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KSS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.63worst · -23.3%$21.29best · +29.3%
  • now $16.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.1 (-2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.25–$17.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.63–$21.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−69.5%−69.5%+0.0%
2020-03-04−66.7%−66.7%+0.0%
2020-03-05−65.0%−65.0%+1.5%
3 best
2020-11-04+97.0%+0.0%+97.0%
2020-11-02+87.2%+0.0%+87.2%
2020-11-05+86.7%−0.5%+88.8%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
+1.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
−3.8%
n=19
Apr
42%
−0.5%
n=19
May
32%
−5.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+2.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
+2.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
61%
+6.1%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$24$122026-08-03: 2 insider sales, $759K — Kent Jennifer J., Raymond Christie2026-07-16: 1 insider sale, $910 — Steinmetz Mari2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $5K — Steinmetz Mari2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $1K — Steinmetz Mari2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $24K — Steinmetz Mari2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $1K — Steinmetz Mari2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $7K — Steinmetz Mari2026-03-26: 1 insider sale, $6K — Steinmetz Mari2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $20K — Steinmetz Mari2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $240K — Timm Jill2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $569K — Timm Jill2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $809K2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $35K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $30K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $9102026-08: 2 open-market sales, $759K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kent Jennifer J. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Raymond Christie — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed same dayofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed same dayofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same dayofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed same dayofficer Steinmetz Mari — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed same daydirector Timm Jill — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Timm Jill — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Kent Jennifer J.directorSale22,942 @ $20.00$459K−8.9% of holding−4.9%not yet — horizon still open234,452Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Raymond ChristiedirectorSale15,000 @ $20.00$300K−5.4% of holding−4.9%not yet — horizon still open261,720Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Steinmetz MariofficerSale53 @ $17.17$910−0.0% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open243,119Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-15Steinmetz MariofficerSale351 @ $13.51$5K−0.1% of holding−23.5%not yet — horizon still open243,254Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06Steinmetz MariofficerSale112 @ $12.98$1K−0.0% of holding−3.0%not yet — horizon still open244,338Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01Steinmetz MariofficerSale1,847 @ $13.01$24K−0.8% of holding+3.9%not yet — horizon still open244,273Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-31Steinmetz MariofficerSale107 @ $12.65$1K−0.0% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open246,120Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30Steinmetz MariofficerSale606 @ $12.33$7K−0.3% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open216,613Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Steinmetz MariofficerSale457 @ $12.50$6K−0.2% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open217,743Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-20Steinmetz MariofficerSale1,583 @ $12.81$20K−0.7% of holding+19.1%not yet — horizon still open218,750Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10Timm JilldirectorSale10,000 @ $24.00$240K−3.0% of holding−17.9%−30.7%325,561Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Timm JilldirectorSale25,000 @ $22.75$569K−6.9% of holding−2.9%−35.7%335,561Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-22Raymond ChristiedirectorSale16,500 @ $19.30$318K−6.5% of holding−8.4%+16.9%238,349Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-22Raymond ChristiedirectorSale10,000 @ $20.00$200K−4.2% of holding−8.4%+16.9%228,349Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15DEE STEVEN E.officerWithheld for tax2,03865,973Form 4
2026-09-15DEE STEVEN E.officerAward / grant13968,011Form 4
2026-09-15DEE STEVEN E.officerAward / grant13968,011Form 4
2026-08-14Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant8,85063,748Form 4
2026-08-14Villagomez AdolfodirectorAward / grant1,56243,967Form 4
2026-08-14Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant8,85063,748Form 4
2026-08-14Chaudhary NirendirectorAward / grant7,5487,548Form 4
2026-08-14Villagomez AdolfodirectorAward / grant1,56243,967Form 4
2026-08-14Chaudhary NirendirectorAward / grant7,5487,548Form 4
2026-08-14Villagomez AdolfodirectorAward / grant1,56243,967Form 4
2026-08-14Villagomez AdolfodirectorAward / grant1,56243,967Form 4
2026-08-14Chaudhary NirendirectorAward / grant7,5487,548Form 4
2026-08-14Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant8,85063,748Form 4
2026-08-14Chaudhary NirendirectorAward / grant7,5487,548Form 4
2026-08-14Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant8,85063,748Form 4
2026-07-15Steinmetz MariofficerWithheld for tax189243,172Form 4
2026-07-15Steinmetz MariofficerAward / grant107243,361Form 4
2026-07-15Steinmetz MariofficerAward / grant107243,361Form 4
2026-06-24Raymond ChristiedirectorWithheld for tax40276,720Form 4
2026-06-24SCHLIFSKE JOHN E.directorAward / grant187136,193Form 4
2026-06-24Villagomez AdolfodirectorAward / grant7842,405Form 4
2026-06-24Floyd H. CharlesdirectorAward / grant12364,503Form 4
2026-06-24Raymond ChristiedirectorAward / grant84276,760Form 4
2026-06-24Raymond ChristiedirectorAward / grant84276,760Form 4
2026-06-24Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant10854,686Form 4
2026-06-24Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant21254,898Form 4
2026-06-24COSSET YAELdirectorAward / grant8970,667Form 4
2026-06-24COSSET YAELdirectorAward / grant5170,718Form 4
2026-06-24Floyd H. CharlesdirectorAward / grant7864,380Form 4
2026-06-24Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant10854,686Form 4
2026-06-24Arlin Wendy C.directorAward / grant21254,898Form 4
2026-06-24COSSET YAELdirectorAward / grant8970,667Form 4
2026-06-24COSSET YAELdirectorAward / grant5170,718Form 4
2026-06-24Floyd H. CharlesdirectorAward / grant7864,380Form 4
2026-06-24Floyd H. CharlesdirectorAward / grant12364,503Form 4
2026-06-24Mitchell RobbindirectorAward / grant7852,510Form 4
2026-06-24Mitchell RobbindirectorAward / grant16552,675Form 4
2026-06-24PRISING JONASdirectorAward / grant92113,188Form 4
2026-06-24SCHLIFSKE JOHN E.directorAward / grant187136,193Form 4
2026-06-24Villagomez AdolfodirectorAward / grant7842,405Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Dean PhillipsHousesale2020-05-072020-04-02$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2020-03-122020-02-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-03-092020-02-11$1–15K
Pat RobertsSenatesale2020-02-032020-01-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-01-102019-12-06$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2019-12-112019-11-22$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2019-09-162019-08-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Bill FloresHousepurchase2019-06-132019-05-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-06-112019-05-28$1–15K
Bill FloresHousepurchase2019-04-042019-03-25$1–15K
Pat RobertsSenatepurchase2018-09-302018-08-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.