KRNY · TickerCove

KRNYKearny Financial Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.65 · now $9.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KRNY has typically landed between $8.39 and $11.17 — a range of −13.0% to +15.8% from the issuance price $9.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.65 · 88% of range

$6.01 low$10.13 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.0%

typical move · IQR 11.9%

−13.0%worst (p90)+15.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where KRNY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.65 (+0.0%)
typical $9.65 (+0.0%)
middle 50% $9.07–$10.23
90% range $8.39–$11.17

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−35.3%	−35.3%	+0.0%
2009-02-05	−31.0%	−31.0%	+1.9%
2020-03-05	−30.6%	−30.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05	+46.1%	−4.6%	+46.9%
2009-03-06	+44.1%	−3.0%	+49.3%
2009-03-09	+42.4%	+0.0%	+54.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

20%

−3.5%

n=20

Feb

55%

−0.1%

n=20

Mar

60%

−0.4%

n=20

Apr

35%

+0.0%

n=20

May

50%

−0.4%

n=20

Jun

55%

+1.2%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.7%

n=20

Aug

40%

−0.1%

n=20

Sep

45%

−1.8%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.0%

n=20

Nov

55%

+3.5%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	MONTANARO LEOPOLD W	director	Purchase	4,773 @ $9.46	$45K	+1.8% of holding	+5.4%	not yet — horizon still open	270,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	9,742 @ $9.41	$92K	+20.5% of holding	+2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	57,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	3,900 @ $9.40	$37K	+9.0% of holding	+2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	47,458	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	700 @ $9.39	$7K	+1.2% of holding	+2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	57,900	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	358 @ $9.40	$3K	+0.8% of holding	+2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	43,558	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	1,972 @ $8.41	$17K	+4.8% of holding	+12.5%	not yet — horizon still open	42,800	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-18	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	1,228 @ $8.40	$10K	+3.1% of holding	+12.5%	not yet — horizon still open	40,828	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-18	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	400 @ $8.42	$3K	+0.9% of holding	+12.5%	not yet — horizon still open	43,200	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-17	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	4,950 @ $8.34	$41K	+14.3% of holding	+12.6%	not yet — horizon still open	39,600	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	4,950 @ $8.71	$43K	+16.7% of holding	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	34,650	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Wong-Zaza Melvina	director	Purchase	3,500 @ $8.57	$30K	+11.5% of holding	+6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	33,910	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	4,800 @ $8.61	$41K	+19.3% of holding	+4.9%	not yet — horizon still open	29,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	2,320 @ $8.46	$20K	−4.3% of holding	+7.6%	not yet — horizon still open	51,865	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	180 @ $8.45	$2K	−0.3% of holding	+7.6%	not yet — horizon still open	54,185	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	1,840 @ $8.41	$15K	+8.4% of holding	+10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	23,740	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	560 @ $8.37	$5K	+2.4% of holding	+10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	24,300	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	500 @ $8.40	$4K	+2.1% of holding	+10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	24,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Fields Curtland E	director	Purchase	100 @ $8.39	$839	+0.4% of holding	+10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	24,900	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $7.60	$15K	−3.4% of holding	+8.6%	+20.1%	56,333	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Sale	900 @ $7.59	$7K	−1.5% of holding	+8.6%	+20.1%	58,933	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Sale	600 @ $7.59	$5K	−1.0% of holding	+8.6%	+20.1%	58,333	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Sale	400 @ $7.61	$3K	−0.7% of holding	+8.6%	+20.1%	55,933	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Sale	100 @ $7.61	$761	−0.2% of holding	+8.6%	+20.1%	55,833	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-28	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	3,900 @ $7.65	$30K	−6.7% of holding	+3.4%	+23.0%	54,465	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	100 @ $7.66	$766	−0.2% of holding	+3.4%	+23.0%	54,365	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-19	MONTANARO LEOPOLD W	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $6.57	$66K	+3.9% of holding	+1.8%	+16.4%	265,227	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Wong-Zaza Melvina	director	Purchase	1,375 @ $5.93	$8K	+4.7% of holding	+11.1%	+35.8%	30,410	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-01	Wong-Zaza Melvina	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $5.99	$9K	+5.4% of holding	+14.3%	+30.6%	29,035	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-09	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	1,715 @ $6.13	$11K	−3.3% of holding	+3.9%	+8.8%	50,622	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	1,585 @ $6.13	$10K	−2.9% of holding	+3.9%	+8.8%	52,337	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Sale	700 @ $6.13	$4K	−1.3% of holding	+3.9%	+8.8%	53,922	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07	Wong-Zaza Melvina	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $7.23	$36K	+22.2% of holding	−5.5%	−21.3%	27,535	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	MONTANARO CRAIG	director	Withheld for tax	12,856	300,521	Form 4
2026-08-07	Suchodolski Keith	officer	Withheld for tax	6,601	117,156	Form 4
2026-08-07	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Withheld for tax	4,517	55,410	Form 4
2026-08-07	Parisi Erika K	officer	Withheld for tax	4,110	168,131	Form 4
2026-08-07	BILOTTA ANTHONY V JR	officer	Withheld for tax	3,561	98,546	Form 4
2026-08-07	DeMedici Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	2,565	86,109	Form 4
2026-08-07	Byrnes Sean	officer	Withheld for tax	2,222	42,394	Form 4
2026-08-07	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Withheld for tax	2,207	62,428	Form 4
2026-08-07	Beierle Cassia J.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,911	36,550	Form 4
2026-08-07	DeMedici Thomas	officer	Award / grant	7,680	88,674	Form 4
2026-08-07	Parisi Erika K	officer	Award / grant	6,886	172,241	Form 4
2026-08-07	Byrnes Sean	officer	Award / grant	9,914	44,616	Form 4
2026-08-07	MONTANARO CRAIG	director	Award / grant	27,058	313,377	Form 4
2026-08-07	Suchodolski Keith	officer	Award / grant	15,186	123,757	Form 4
2026-08-07	Beierle Cassia J.	officer	Award / grant	6,441	38,461	Form 4
2026-08-07	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Award / grant	6,673	64,635	Form 4
2026-08-07	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Award / grant	8,062	59,927	Form 4
2026-08-07	BILOTTA ANTHONY V JR	officer	Award / grant	7,578	102,107	Form 4
2026-06-01	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,026	57,962	Form 4
2026-06-01	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Award / grant	2,686	58,988	Form 4
2025-09-10	Byrnes Sean	officer	Discretionary	2,887	6,874	Form 4
2025-09-03	Suchodolski Keith	officer	Discretionary	7,566	23,544	Form 4
2025-08-07	MONTANARO CRAIG	director	Withheld for tax	10,504	286,319	Form 4
2025-08-07	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Withheld for tax	3,663	58,365	Form 4
2025-08-07	BILOTTA ANTHONY V JR	officer	Withheld for tax	3,660	94,392	Form 4
2025-08-07	Suchodolski Keith	officer	Withheld for tax	3,123	108,571	Form 4
2025-08-07	Byrnes Sean	officer	Withheld for tax	2,883	33,788	Form 4
2025-08-07	Parisi Erika K	officer	Withheld for tax	2,883	164,999	Form 4
2025-08-07	DeMedici Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	1,879	80,994	Form 4
2025-08-07	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,610	58,079	Form 4
2025-08-07	Beierle Cassia J.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,393	32,020	Form 4
2025-08-07	DeMedici Thomas	officer	Award / grant	12,240	82,873	Form 4
2025-08-07	BILOTTA ANTHONY V JR	officer	Award / grant	12,078	98,052	Form 4
2025-08-07	Beierle Cassia J.	officer	Award / grant	10,167	33,413	Form 4
2025-08-07	Byrnes Sean	officer	Award / grant	11,284	36,671	Form 4
2025-08-07	Parisi Erika K	officer	Award / grant	11,082	167,882	Form 4
2025-08-07	MONTANARO CRAIG	director	Award / grant	34,071	296,823	Form 4
2025-08-07	Suchodolski Keith	officer	Award / grant	19,641	111,694	Form 4
2025-08-07	Swansson Timothy A	officer	Award / grant	10,584	59,689	Form 4
2025-08-07	Joyce Patrick M	officer	Award / grant	12,787	62,028	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i