KREFKKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.98 · now $6.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KREF has typically landed between $6.03 and $7.80 — a range of −13.6% to +11.8% from the issuance price $6.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,333 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KREF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.03worst · -13.6%$7.8best · +11.8%
  • now $6.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.94 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.58–$7.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.03–$7.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,333 windows spanning 2017-05-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−55.3%−55.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−53.8%−53.8%+1.0%
2020-02-24−52.2%−54.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+50.3%+0.0%+73.1%
2020-03-20+49.8%−2.2%+69.3%
2020-03-18+47.5%−7.4%+60.3%

2,333 overlapping windows · 2017-05-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.4%
n=9
Feb
44%
−3.7%
n=9
Mar
44%
−4.2%
n=9
Apr
44%
−1.7%
n=9
May
78%
+2.6%
n=9
Jun
60%
+1.2%
n=10
Jul
80%
+4.5%
n=10
Aug
80%
+2.7%
n=10
Sep
40%
−2.2%
n=10
Oct
44%
−2.1%
n=9
Nov
67%
+2.6%
n=9
Dec
56%
−1.0%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$62026-04-24: 2 insider purchases, $604K — Salem Matthew A, Mattson W Patrick2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — ROSENBERG RALPH F2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $78K — Lee Christen E.J.2025-11-06: 3 insider purchases, $539K — Salem Matthew A, AHERN TERRANCE R, Mattson W Patrick2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $617K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $604K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Salem Matthew A — Purchase on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Mattson W Patrick — Purchase on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROSENBERG RALPH F — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed same daydirector Lee Christen E.J. — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Salem Matthew A — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector AHERN TERRANCE R — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mattson W Patrick — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-24Salem Matthew AdirectorPurchase60,000 @ $6.04$362K+9.3% of holding+4.3%not yet — horizon still open703,075Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-24Mattson W PatrickofficerPurchase40,000 @ $6.03$241K+8.7% of holding+4.3%not yet — horizon still open500,287Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-03ROSENBERG RALPH FdirectorSale125,289 @ $8.25$1.0M−100.0% of holding−2.7%−20.8%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07Lee Christen E.J.directorPurchase10,000 @ $7.80$78K+4.6% of holding+8.6%−23.2%229,133Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-06Salem Matthew AdirectorPurchase32,000 @ $7.84$251K+6.0% of holding+8.1%−21.7%561,825Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06AHERN TERRANCE RdirectorPurchase23,700 @ $7.81$185K+61.0% of holding+8.1%−21.7%62,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06Mattson W PatrickofficerPurchase13,000 @ $7.91$103K+3.5% of holding+8.1%−21.7%386,787Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

22 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-14Madoff PauladirectorAward / grant16,69170,182Form 4
2026-04-14MCANENY DEBORAH HdirectorAward / grant16,69180,099Form 4
2026-04-14AHERN TERRANCE RdirectorAward / grant16,69179,247Form 4
2026-04-14ESTEVES IRENE MdirectorAward / grant16,69169,968Form 4
2026-04-14Langer Jonathan AdirectorAward / grant16,69173,513Form 4
2025-12-18Salem Matthew AdirectorAward / grant81,250643,075Form 4
2025-12-18Decious KendraofficerAward / grant24,00080,241Form 4
2025-12-18Galligan KellyofficerAward / grant6,5009,580Form 4
2025-12-18Mattson W PatrickofficerAward / grant73,500460,287Form 4
2025-11-03Langer Jonathan AdirectorOther acquisition14,08656,822Form 4
2025-10-01Lee Christen E.J.directorWithheld for tax10,074219,133Form 4
2025-10-01Decious KendraofficerWithheld for tax8,79956,241Form 4
2025-10-01Galligan KellyofficerWithheld for tax4203,080Form 4
2025-04-25AHERN TERRANCE RdirectorAward / grant12,38738,856Form 4
2025-04-25MCANENY DEBORAH HdirectorAward / grant12,38763,408Form 4
2025-04-25Langer Jonathan AdirectorAward / grant12,38770,908Form 4
2025-04-25Madoff PauladirectorAward / grant12,38753,491Form 4
2025-04-25ESTEVES IRENE MdirectorAward / grant12,38753,277Form 4
2024-12-16Salem Matthew AdirectorAward / grant81,250529,825Form 4
2024-12-16Galligan KellyofficerAward / grant3,5003,500Form 4
2024-12-16Decious KendraofficerAward / grant24,00065,040Form 4
2024-12-16Mattson W PatrickofficerAward / grant73,500373,787Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.