KRThe Kroger Co.Consumer Defensive · Grocery Storesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.14 · now $61.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KR has typically landed between $55.67 and $67.92 — a range of −9.0% to +11.1% from the issuance price $61.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.67worst · -9.0%$67.92best · +11.1%
  • now $61.14 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $61.21 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $58.59–$63.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.67–$67.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2017-06-09−26.5%−27.6%+0.0%
2017-06-08−25.1%−26.2%+1.9%
2017-06-13−24.4%−26.5%+0.0%
3 best
2022-02-02+34.2%+0.0%+34.2%
2022-02-03+28.8%−1.0%+31.3%
2022-02-24+28.3%+0.0%+32.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$34.8B
market cap
$1.71
EPS (TTM)
33.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-10
next earnings
Revenue$147.6B
'20'25
Net income$1.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr0.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr4.16
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $61.14$38.55$85.61
  • DCF (intrinsic)$82.37
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$41.80
  • Analyst target · range $58.00–$82.00$72.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$61.14

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.4%
n=18
Feb
68%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
74%
+4.2%
n=19
Apr
63%
+0.4%
n=19
May
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$75$562026-07-14: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — COSSET YAEL2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector COSSET YAEL — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-14COSSET YAELdirectorSale30,000 @ $58.80$1.8M−19.0% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open127,868Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16MOORE CLYDE RdirectorSale3,810 @ $71.61$273K−4.2% of holding−7.0%−23.5%85,850Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-11MOORE CLYDE RdirectorSale26,814 @ $70.50$1.9M−21.3% of holding+3.4%−26.7%99,143Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-27Adcock Mary EllendirectorSale34,250 @ $71.16$2.4M−15.7% of holding−6.3%−23.4%184,473Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-25Arreaga GabrielofficerSale37,960 @ $72.44$2.7M−33.5% of holding−6.0%−26.8%75,218Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23COSSET YAELdirectorSale71,224 @ $73.49$5.2M−33.9% of holding−7.2%−28.8%139,124Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23FIKE CARIN LofficerSale8,979 @ $73.75$662K−15.4% of holding−7.2%−28.8%49,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23Massa Timothy AofficerSale8,415 @ $74.00$623K−6.6% of holding−7.2%−28.8%118,761Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23FIKE CARIN LofficerSale4,246 @ $73.83$313K−7.9% of holding−7.2%−28.8%49,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23FIKE CARIN LofficerSale3,250 @ $73.84$240K−6.2% of holding−7.2%−28.8%49,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-23Wheatley Christine SofficerSale30,000 @ $72.07$2.2M−23.5% of holding−14.1%−29.2%97,737Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-22COSSET YAELdirectorSale30,000 @ $73.00$2.2M−17.7% of holding−15.7%−34.5%139,124Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-22Massa Timothy AofficerSale22,565 @ $73.00$1.6M−15.1% of holding−15.7%−34.5%127,176Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21Arreaga GabrielofficerSale13,867 @ $71.82$996K−15.6% of holding−18.8%−34.8%75,218Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21Nichols Brian WofficerSale1,000 @ $72.03$72K−8.7% of holding−18.8%−34.8%10,473Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-17Foley Todd AofficerSale14,001 @ $70.67$989K−23.8% of holding−15.7%−29.1%44,828Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-16Jabbar Valerie L.officerSale31,271 @ $69.08$2.2M−27.4% of holding−12.8%−25.6%82,684Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-04Wheatley Christine SofficerSale30,000 @ $69.44$2.1M−19.0% of holding−2.0%−36.3%127,737Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-03FIKE CARIN LofficerSale5,541 @ $70.79$392K−61.4% of holding−2.0%−30.7%3,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21Kimball Kenneth CofficerSale11,000 @ $65.37$719K−8.0% of holding+18.1%−19.3%127,106Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-19Arreaga GabrielofficerSale15,959 @ $65.63$1.0M−15.2% of holding+15.7%−15.7%89,085Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17COSSET YAELdirectorSale17,685 @ $66.19$1.2M−11.3% of holding+7.6%−15.5%139,124Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17FIKE CARIN LofficerSale4,492 @ $66.53$299K−56.3% of holding+7.6%−15.5%3,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Nichols Brian WofficerSale1,441 @ $65.88$95K−10.6% of holding+7.6%−15.5%12,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14COSSET YAELdirectorSale10,510 @ $65.77$691K−6.3% of holding+10.0%−13.5%156,809Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13Adcock Mary EllendirectorSale43,888 @ $66.34$2.9M−17.1% of holding+6.1%−15.6%212,724Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Adcock Mary EllendirectorSale41,460 @ $66.43$2.8M−13.9% of holding+6.1%−15.6%256,612Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Massa Timothy AofficerSale22,500 @ $66.53$1.5M−17.0% of holding+6.1%−15.6%110,146Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Adcock Mary EllendirectorSale18,588 @ $66.41$1.2M−8.7% of holding+6.1%−15.6%194,136Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Massa Timothy AofficerSale7,054 @ $66.66$470K−6.4% of holding+6.1%−15.6%103,092Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Nichols Brian WofficerSale1,300 @ $66.71$87K−9.7% of holding+6.1%−15.6%12,090Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-10COSSET YAELdirectorSale66,335 @ $68.06$4.5M−32.3% of holding+9.2%−15.9%139,338Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10COSSET YAELdirectorSale29,499 @ $68.07$2.0M−17.5% of holding+9.2%−15.9%139,338Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10COSSET YAELdirectorSale10,611 @ $68.20$724K−7.1% of holding+9.2%−15.9%139,338Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10COSSET YAELdirectorSale8,704 @ $68.15$593K−5.9% of holding+9.2%−15.9%139,338Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

265 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01SARGENT RONALDdirectorAward / grant46269,087Form 4
2026-09-01Gates AnnedirectorAward / grant18828,164Form 4
2026-09-01Aufreiter Nora AdirectorAward / grant7310,859Form 4
2026-09-01Sutton Mark SdirectorAward / grant507,475Form 4
2026-07-15FIKE CARIN LofficerWithheld for tax5650,683Form 4
2026-07-15HOGUET KAREN MdirectorAward / grant3,66031,938Form 4
2026-07-15Butier Mitchell RdirectorAward / grant3,6603,949Form 4
2026-07-15Brown Kevin MdirectorAward / grant3,66025,465Form 4
2026-07-15Sutton Mark SdirectorAward / grant3,66046,004Form 4
2026-07-15SARGENT RONALDdirectorAward / grant7,916262,914Form 4
2026-07-15Aufreiter Nora AdirectorAward / grant3,66052,967Form 4
2026-07-15SOURRY KNOX JUDITH AMANDAdirectorAward / grant3,66025,465Form 4
2026-07-15Gates AnnedirectorAward / grant3,66027,976Form 4
2026-07-15Vemuri AshokdirectorAward / grant3,66039,361Form 4
2026-07-13Shaffer Megan N.officerWithheld for tax46632,207Form 4
2026-07-13Nichols Brian WofficerWithheld for tax9614,143Form 4
2026-06-25Butier Mitchell RdirectorAward / grant289289Form 4
2026-06-01SARGENT RONALDdirectorAward / grant38868,625Form 4
2026-06-01Gates AnnedirectorAward / grant13824,316Form 4
2026-06-01Chao Elaine L.directorAward / grant8815,560Form 4
2026-06-01Aufreiter Nora AdirectorAward / grant6110,787Form 4
2026-06-01Sutton Mark SdirectorAward / grant427,425Form 4
2026-03-31Chao Elaine L.directorAward / grant3886,061Form 4
2026-03-13SARGENT RONALDdirectorWithheld for tax26,567254,998Form 4
2026-03-13Kennerley David John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax7,74365,739Form 4
2026-03-13COSSET YAELdirectorWithheld for tax6,694157,868Form 4
2026-03-13Massa Timothy AofficerWithheld for tax5,676135,312Form 4
2026-03-13Adcock Mary EllendirectorWithheld for tax5,182199,328Form 4
2026-03-13Arreaga GabrielofficerWithheld for tax3,16375,062Form 4
2026-03-13Jabbar Valerie L.officerWithheld for tax2,40088,666Form 4
2026-03-13Shaffer Megan N.officerWithheld for tax1,11232,673Form 4
2026-03-13Kelley Joseph MichaelofficerWithheld for tax78245,840Form 4
2026-03-13Nichols Brian WofficerWithheld for tax75514,239Form 4
2026-03-13Smith Victor RemonofficerWithheld for tax57431,683Form 4
2026-03-13FIKE CARIN LofficerWithheld for tax2414,006Form 4
2026-03-13FIKE CARIN LofficerWithheld for tax18650,686Form 4
2026-03-12COSSET YAELdirectorWithheld for tax6,388142,150Form 4
2026-03-12Adcock Mary EllendirectorWithheld for tax4,509185,299Form 4
2026-03-12Massa Timothy AofficerWithheld for tax4,509120,977Form 4
2026-03-12Jabbar Valerie L.officerWithheld for tax2,25583,061Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-06-122026-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-04-022026-03-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-062026-02-26$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-03-062026-02-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-02-022026-01-16$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-02-022026-01-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-11-142025-10-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.