KOSKosmos Energy Ltd.Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.87 · now $2.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KOS has typically landed between $2.16 and $3.80 — a range of −24.7% to +32.4% from the issuance price $2.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,839 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-05-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KOS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.16worst · -24.7%$3.8best · +32.4%
  • now $2.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.84 (-1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.53–$3.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.16–$3.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,839 windows spanning 2011-05-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-19−89.7%−89.7%+1.2%
2020-02-18−89.2%−89.2%+0.6%
2020-02-20−88.3%−89.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04+128.0%−1.0%+128.0%
2020-05-07+121.0%+0.0%+121.0%
2020-11-06+119.2%+0.0%+130.3%

3,839 overlapping windows · 2011-05-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
53%
+6.6%
n=15
Feb
60%
+4.0%
n=15
Mar
47%
−0.1%
n=15
Apr
40%
+4.3%
n=15
May
40%
−0.5%
n=15
Jun
50%
−2.7%
n=16
Jul
44%
−1.2%
n=16
Aug
63%
+1.2%
n=16
Sep
50%
−2.8%
n=16
Oct
40%
+1.6%
n=15
Nov
47%
+0.9%
n=15
Dec
33%
−2.7%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-07-02: 4 insider sales, $346K — INGLIS ANDREW G, Shah Nealesh D., Marion Josh R., Glass Ronald W.2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $119K — Franklin Roy A.2026-05-27: 2 insider sales, $224K — Grant John Douglas Kelso, Sterin Steven2026-03-10: 4 insider purchases, $7.0M — Ogunlesi Adebayo O., INGLIS ANDREW G, Shah Nealesh D., STICE J MICHAEL2026-02-04: 4 insider sales, $108K — INGLIS ANDREW G, Shah Nealesh D., Glass Ronald W., Marion Josh R.2026-02-03: 4 insider sales, $270K — INGLIS ANDREW G, Shah Nealesh D., Marion Josh R., Glass Ronald W.2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $378K2026-03: 4 open-market purchases, $7.0M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $343K2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $346K↑ buys↓ salesdirector INGLIS ANDREW G — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Shah Nealesh D. — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Marion Josh R. — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Glass Ronald W. — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Franklin Roy A. — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Grant John Douglas Kelso — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sterin Steven — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ogunlesi Adebayo O. — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector INGLIS ANDREW G — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shah Nealesh D. — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STICE J MICHAEL — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector INGLIS ANDREW G — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Shah Nealesh D. — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Glass Ronald W. — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marion Josh R. — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector INGLIS ANDREW G — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shah Nealesh D. — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Marion Josh R. — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Glass Ronald W. — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorSale85,935 @ $2.05$176K−1.8% of holding+20.5%not yet — horizon still open4,678,043Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Shah Nealesh D.officerSale45,980 @ $2.05$94K−2.3% of holding+20.5%not yet — horizon still open1,935,410Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Marion Josh R.officerSale24,969 @ $2.05$51K−9.7% of holding+20.5%not yet — horizon still open233,404Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Glass Ronald W.officerSale12,128 @ $2.05$25K−3.3% of holding+20.5%not yet — horizon still open358,700Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Franklin Roy A.directorSale43,466 @ $2.73$119K−22.4% of holding−22.5%not yet — horizon still open150,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Grant John Douglas KelsodirectorSale43,466 @ $2.73$119K−34.6% of holding−15.7%not yet — horizon still open82,311Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27Sterin StevendirectorSale38,636 @ $2.73$105K−10.4% of holding−15.7%not yet — horizon still open331,295Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Ogunlesi Adebayo O.directorPurchase3,157,895 @ $1.90$6.0M+173.9% of holding+5.1%+5.9%4,974,184Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorPurchase315,790 @ $1.90$600K+7.5% of holding+5.1%+5.9%4,542,807Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Shah Nealesh D.officerPurchase157,894 @ $1.90$300K+9.3% of holding+5.1%+5.9%1,863,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10STICE J MICHAELdirectorPurchase52,631 @ $1.90$100K+34.0% of holding+5.1%+5.9%207,620Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorSale44,628 @ $1.42$63K−1.0% of holding+70.0%+48.8%4,227,017Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Shah Nealesh D.officerSale24,690 @ $1.42$35K−1.4% of holding+70.0%+48.8%1,705,167Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Glass Ronald W.officerSale3,313 @ $1.42$5K−1.0% of holding+70.0%+48.8%339,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Marion Josh R.officerSale3,284 @ $1.42$5K−1.7% of holding+70.0%+48.8%194,125Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorSale103,554 @ $1.37$142K−2.4% of holding+84.5%+58.1%4,271,645Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03Shah Nealesh D.officerSale54,434 @ $1.37$75K−3.1% of holding+84.5%+58.1%1,729,857Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03Marion Josh R.officerSale19,656 @ $1.37$27K−9.1% of holding+84.5%+58.1%197,409Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03Glass Ronald W.officerSale19,285 @ $1.37$26K−5.3% of holding+84.5%+58.1%342,945Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05Grant John Douglas KelsodirectorSale27,923 @ $1.81$51K−48.3% of holding+16.7%−55.3%29,921Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorSale138,689 @ $3.12$433K−3.4% of holding−24.7%−46.6%3,959,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Ball Christopher JamesofficerSale84,898 @ $3.12$265K−4.9% of holding−24.7%−46.6%1,639,925Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Shah Nealesh D.officerSale78,015 @ $3.12$243K−4.8% of holding−24.7%−46.6%1,555,374Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Glass Ronald W.officerSale10,354 @ $3.12$32K−3.3% of holding−24.7%−46.6%299,498Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Marion Josh R.officerSale10,354 @ $3.12$32K−6.4% of holding−24.7%−46.6%151,324Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorSale139,002 @ $3.11$432K−3.3% of holding−26.5%−46.4%4,097,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Ball Christopher JamesofficerSale138,584 @ $3.11$431K−7.4% of holding−26.5%−46.4%1,724,823Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Shah Nealesh D.officerSale78,191 @ $3.11$243K−4.6% of holding−26.5%−46.4%1,633,389Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Glass Ronald W.officerSale10,379 @ $3.11$32K−3.2% of holding−26.5%−46.4%309,852Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Marion Josh R.officerSale10,379 @ $3.11$32K−6.0% of holding−26.5%−46.4%161,678Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorSale102,701 @ $3.12$320K−2.4% of holding−23.8%−46.7%4,236,691Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Shah Nealesh D.officerSale56,987 @ $3.12$178K−3.2% of holding−23.8%−46.7%1,711,580Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Glass Ronald W.officerSale16,182 @ $3.12$50K−4.8% of holding−23.8%−46.7%320,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Marion Josh R.officerSale16,144 @ $3.12$50K−8.6% of holding−23.8%−46.7%172,057Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Shah Nealesh D.officerAward / grant118,3291,981,390Form 4
2026-07-01INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorAward / grant221,1714,763,978Form 4
2026-07-01Glass Ronald W.officerAward / grant31,196370,828Form 4
2026-07-01Marion Josh R.officerAward / grant64,248258,373Form 4
2026-05-28Ogunlesi Adebayo O.directorAward / grant62,0445,036,228Form 4
2026-05-28Moraeus Hanssen MariadirectorAward / grant62,044223,694Form 4
2026-05-28Franklin Roy A.directorAward / grant62,044212,766Form 4
2026-05-28GOODWIN DEANNA LdirectorAward / grant62,044288,363Form 4
2026-05-28Sterin StevendirectorAward / grant62,044393,339Form 4
2026-05-28STICE J MICHAELdirectorAward / grant62,044269,664Form 4
2026-05-28Grant John Douglas KelsodirectorAward / grant62,044144,355Form 4
2026-05-27Franklin Roy A.directorWithheld for tax976194,188Form 4
2026-05-27Grant John Douglas KelsodirectorWithheld for tax735125,777Form 4
2026-02-03Marion Josh R.officerAward / grant7,661217,065Form 4
2026-02-03Shah Nealesh D.officerAward / grant65,5671,784,291Form 4
2026-02-03INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorAward / grant118,5394,375,199Form 4
2026-02-03Glass Ronald W.officerAward / grant7,732362,230Form 4
2026-01-31Glass Ronald W.officerAward / grant55,000354,498Form 4
2026-01-31Marion Josh R.officerAward / grant58,080209,404Form 4
2026-01-31INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorAward / grant297,6604,256,660Form 4
2026-01-31Shah Nealesh D.officerAward / grant163,3501,718,724Form 4
2025-06-05Moraeus Hanssen MariadirectorAward / grant96,591161,650Form 4
2025-06-05Ogunlesi Adebayo O.directorAward / grant96,5911,816,289Form 4
2025-06-05Franklin Roy A.directorAward / grant96,591195,164Form 4
2025-06-05STICE J MICHAELdirectorAward / grant96,591154,989Form 4
2025-06-05GOODWIN DEANNA LdirectorAward / grant96,591226,319Form 4
2025-06-05Grant John Douglas KelsodirectorAward / grant96,591126,512Form 4
2025-06-05Sterin StevendirectorAward / grant96,591369,931Form 4
2025-06-04Franklin Roy A.directorWithheld for tax29998,573Form 4
2025-06-04Grant John Douglas KelsodirectorWithheld for tax27557,844Form 4
2025-01-31Ball Christopher JamesofficerAward / grant99,5251,508,769Form 4
2025-01-31Shah Nealesh D.officerAward / grant389,2371,768,567Form 4
2025-01-31Glass Ronald W.officerAward / grant50,000284,773Form 4
2025-01-31Glass Ronald W.officerAward / grant51,640336,413Form 4
2025-01-31INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorAward / grant270,6003,647,416Form 4
2025-01-31INGLIS ANDREW GdirectorAward / grant691,9764,339,392Form 4
2025-01-31Marion Josh R.officerAward / grant52,800136,561Form 4
2025-01-31Marion Josh R.officerAward / grant51,640188,201Form 4
2025-01-31Ball Christopher JamesofficerAward / grant354,6381,863,407Form 4
2025-01-31Shah Nealesh D.officerAward / grant148,5001,379,330Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.