KNX · TickerCove

KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.Industrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.78 · now $65.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KNX has typically landed between $58.06 and $75.61 — a range of −11.7% to +14.9% from the issuance price $65.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$65.78 · 62% of range

$38.57 low$82.45 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 11.7%

−11.7%worst (p90)+14.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where KNX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $65.78 (+0.0%)
typical $65.89 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $62.04–$69.73
90% range $58.06–$75.61

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-18	−32.8%	−33.7%	+0.0%
2008-09-16	−30.2%	−30.2%	+5.3%
2008-09-19	−27.9%	−32.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-05-12	+38.0%	−0.2%	+38.0%
2026-05-13	+36.8%	+0.0%	+38.3%
2018-12-28	+33.1%	+0.0%	+33.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

70%

+4.3%

n=20

Feb

30%

−0.5%

n=20

Mar

50%

+1.4%

n=20

Apr

50%

−0.2%

n=20

May

60%

+1.8%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.5%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.9%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.7%

n=20

Sep

50%

−1.8%

n=20

Oct

50%

+1.1%

n=20

Nov

75%

+5.5%

n=20

Dec

50%

−0.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-13	Dove Reid	director	Sale	126,864 @ $73.13	$9.3M	−100.0% of holding	−4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Dove Reid	director	Sale	42,290 @ $71.49	$3.0M	−25.0% of holding	−3.6%	not yet — horizon still open	126,864	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-12	Vander Ploeg David	director	Sale	2,200 @ $52.33	$115K	−6.8% of holding	−3.6%	not yet — horizon still open	30,252	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31	Dove Reid	director	Sale	50,000 @ $70.25	$3.5M	−22.8% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	169,154	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Sale	3,600 @ $70.82	$255K	−40.0% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	5,405	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26	Smith Joshua	officer	Sale	5,770 @ $60.91	$351K	−38.5% of holding	−1.9%	−0.1%	9,214	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20	KNIGHT KEVIN P	director	Sale	30,000 @ $61.00	$1.8M	−2.2% of holding	−7.2%	+5.1%	1,305,347	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-18	KNIGHT KEVIN P	director	Sale	22,330 @ $60.17	$1.3M	−1.6% of holding	−5.9%	+5.5%	1,343,017	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18	KNIGHT KEVIN P	director	Sale	8,857 @ $59.39	$526K	−0.6% of holding	−5.9%	+5.5%	1,365,347	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18	KNIGHT KEVIN P	director	Sale	7,670 @ $60.03	$460K	−0.6% of holding	−5.9%	+5.5%	1,335,347	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	KNIGHT KEVIN P	director	Sale	31,143 @ $60.07	$1.9M	−2.2% of holding	−8.2%	+5.8%	1,374,204	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10	Harrington Timothy Sean	officer	Sale	8,500 @ $59.81	$508K	−59.4% of holding	−9.3%	+7.2%	5,812	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Sale	5,917 @ $54.77	$324K	−40.4% of holding	−3.2%	+3.2%	8,716	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04	Liu Michael K	officer	Sale	1,243 @ $60.87	$76K	−100.0% of holding	−3.2%	+3.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09	KNIGHT KEVIN P	director	Sale	35,000 @ $51.01	$1.8M	−2.4% of holding	+12.9%	+58.0%	1,405,347	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-04	Stultz Reed	officer	Sale	4,692 @ $51.51	$242K	−91.0% of holding	+7.1%	+51.4%	465	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Sale	4,300 @ $45.04	$194K	−43.2% of holding	+6.1%	+19.6%	5,644	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-03	Liu Michael K	officer	Sale	3,420 @ $43.41	$148K	−100.0% of holding	−12.4%	+34.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	KNIGHT GARY J	director	Gift	111,740	2,602,998	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Withheld for tax	508	9,005	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Withheld for tax	502	12,718	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Withheld for tax	466	8,372	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Withheld for tax	461	11,388	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Withheld for tax	324	7,791	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Withheld for tax	265	7,387	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Withheld for tax	206	9,704	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Withheld for tax	202	4,844	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Withheld for tax	199	6,145	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Withheld for tax	183	5,668	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Withheld for tax	175	10,166	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Withheld for tax	167	9,157	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Withheld for tax	161	5,229	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Withheld for tax	159	7,058	Form 4
2026-05-31	Hess Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	121	12,748	Form 4
2026-05-31	Hess Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	116	13,069	Form 4
2026-05-31	Hess Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	84	12,412	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Option exercise	685	685	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Option exercise	546	1,091	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Option exercise	622	1,865	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Option exercise	676	2,708	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	5,751	5,751	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	1,832	7,328	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	1,683	5,049	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	637	1,273	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	753	754	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	608	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Option exercise	356	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Option exercise	594	594	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Option exercise	728	1,455	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Option exercise	1,047	3,140	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Option exercise	1,141	4,567	Form 4
2026-05-31	Flanagan Cary M	officer	Option exercise	3,503	3,503	Form 4
2026-05-31	Prickett Wilburn Douglas III	officer	Option exercise	1,983	1,983	Form 4
2026-05-31	Hess Andrew	director	Option exercise	437	873	Form 4
2026-05-31	Hess Andrew	director	Option exercise	457	457	Form 4
2026-05-31	Vitiritto Joseph A.	director	Award / grant	3,966	3,966	Form 4
2026-05-31	Hess Andrew	director	Option exercise	315	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	Fitzsimmons James L	officer	Option exercise	1,683	11,849	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i