Issued 2026-09-16 at $53.84 · now $53.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KNTK has typically landed between $46.97 and $62.23 — a range of −12.8% to +15.6% from the issuance price $53.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,212 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($53.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KNTK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $53.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $53.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $54.98 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $51.92–$58.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.97–$62.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,212 windows spanning 2017-05-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-27 | −60.6% | −60.6% | +7.7% |
| 2020-02-18 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +4.7% |
| 2020-03-04 | −55.3% | −63.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-03 | +400.9% | +0.0% | +400.9% |
| 2020-11-04 | +362.6% | +0.0% | +396.3% |
| 2020-11-02 | +324.5% | +0.0% | +324.5% |
2,212 overlapping windows · 2017-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.1%
n=9
Feb
56%
−2.0%
n=9
Mar
44%
−4.8%
n=9
Apr
44%
−0.6%
n=9
May
67%
+2.7%
n=9
Jun
60%
−2.4%
n=10
Jul
70%
+1.8%
n=10
Aug
40%
−2.0%
n=10
Sep
50%
−0.0%
n=10
Oct
33%
−3.1%
n=9
Nov
44%
+31.5%
n=9
Dec
56%
+6.4%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,772 @ $55.06 | $483K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 713,845 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,686 @ $55.11 | $258K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 722,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,025 @ $55.15 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 727,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,886 @ $55.21 | $270K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 729,282 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 954 @ $56.30 | $54K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 728,328 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,585 @ $55.19 | $253K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 734,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 58,383 @ $55.14 | $3.2M | −7.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 738,753 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 45,428 @ $55.06 | $2.5M | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 797,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 76,260 @ $55.28 | $4.2M | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 842,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,963 @ $55.17 | $384K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 918,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,107 @ $55.07 | $171K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 925,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64,892 @ $54.32 | $3.5M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 928,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6 @ $54.84 | $329 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 928,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 134,815 @ $52.78 | $7.1M | −11.9% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 994,079 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 287 @ $53.11 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 993,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 101,098 @ $53.57 | $5.4M | −8.2% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,129,267 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SUGG LAURA A | director | Sale | 61,180 @ $52.25 | $3.2M | −74.5% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,910 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,689 @ $52.56 | $562K | −0.9% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,230,365 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 373 @ $54.09 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,128,894 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 74,866 @ $51.71 | $3.9M | −5.7% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,241,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 38,209 @ $51.38 | $2.0M | −2.8% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,315,920 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 84,701 @ $51.52 | $4.4M | −5.9% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,354,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Byers Deborah L | director | Sale | 2,739 @ $51.51 | $141K | −10.1% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 90,376 @ $52.36 | $4.7M | −5.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,438,830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 57,140 @ $51.51 | $2.9M | −3.6% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,529,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 40,527 @ $50.59 | $2.1M | −2.4% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,624,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 37,947 @ $51.17 | $1.9M | −2.3% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,586,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,550 @ $50.24 | $1.3M | −1.6% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,664,820 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 210,552 @ $50.46 | $10.6M | −10.9% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,716,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,797 @ $51.02 | $1.3M | −1.4% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,691,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,175 @ $50.04 | $109K | −0.1% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,926,719 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 404,268 @ $50.56 | $20.4M | −43.6% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 523,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 94,160 @ $50.86 | $4.8M | −18.0% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 428,894 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 36,136 @ $49.20 | $1.8M | −3.8% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 927,322 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 183,434 @ $49.53 | $9.1M | −16.0% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 963,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 192,041 @ $48.56 | $9.3M | −14.3% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,146,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 868 @ $48.01 | $42K | −0.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,338,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 138,771 @ $48.17 | $6.7M | −9.4% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,339,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 21,429 @ $48.02 | $1.0M | −1.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,478,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wall Matthew | officer | Sale | 3,222 @ $46.92 | $151K | −0.5% of holding | +6.4% | +10.4% | 585,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Stellato Steven | officer | Sale | 2,907 @ $46.92 | $136K | −0.7% of holding | +6.4% | +10.4% | 393,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Howard Trevor | officer | Sale | 1,619 @ $46.92 | $76K | −0.6% of holding | +6.4% | +10.4% | 249,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Ellis Lindsay | officer | Sale | 1,260 @ $46.92 | $59K | −2.6% of holding | +6.4% | +10.4% | 46,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,000,000 @ $44.85 | $179.4M | −100.0% of holding | +11.1% | +7.1% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Wall Matthew | officer | Sale | 8,083 @ $36.05 | $291K | −1.4% of holding | +12.2% | +29.8% | 554,738 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Welch Jamie | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $34.57 | $277K | +0.2% of holding | +12.0% | +42.5% | 3,687,791 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Welch Jamie | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $39.13 | $196K | +0.1% of holding | −2.2% | +24.4% | 3,676,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,262,090 @ $44.16 | $188.2M | −100.0% of holding | −10.8% | −33.8% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 657,582 @ $52.66 | $34.6M | −100.0% of holding | −12.8% | −32.4% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,044,519 @ $52.66 | $55.0M | −61.4% of holding | −14.9% | −34.9% | 657,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,952,431 @ $55.63 | $219.9M | −79.1% of holding | −0.1% | −33.9% | 1,044,520 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Stellato Steven | officer | Award / grant | 10,846 | 404,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wall Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 12,164 | 597,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wall Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 1,939 | 34,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Stellato Steven | officer | Award / grant | 1,721 | 30,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Howard Trevor | officer | Award / grant | 1,150 | 19,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Howard Trevor | officer | Award / grant | 10,846 | 260,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 578 | 9,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 9,731 | 56,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 15,569,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,928,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,928,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,928,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,928,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,928,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,928,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Harris Craig | director | Award / grant | 1,755 | 1,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Byers Deborah L | director | Award / grant | 3,102 | 26,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | LELAND D MARK | director | Award / grant | 3,102 | 30,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | SUGG LAURA A | director | Award / grant | 3,102 | 81,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | McCarthy Kevin S | director | Award / grant | 3,102 | 112,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | ORDEMANN WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 3,102 | 13,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Byers Deborah L | director | Award / grant | 288 | 7,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Byers Deborah L | director | Award / grant | 206 | 27,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 17,069,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,500,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,500,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,500,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,500,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,500,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 1,500,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Stellato Steven | officer | Award / grant | 7,245 | 396,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ellis Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 5,072 | 48,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wall Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 8,030 | 588,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Welch Jamie | director | Award / grant | 16,101 | 3,788,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Howard Trevor | officer | Award / grant | 6,521 | 251,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 18,569,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 4,000,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 4,000,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 4,000,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | ISQ Global Fund II GP LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 4,000,001 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.