KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $360.75 · now $360.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KNSL has typically landed between $309.00 and $428.56 — a range of −14.3% to +18.8% from the issuance price $360.75.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,527 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-07-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($360.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KNSL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $360.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$309worst · -14.3%$428.56best · +18.8%
  • now $360.75 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $367.78 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $343.06–$392.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $309–$428.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,527 windows spanning 2016-07-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−33.3%−33.3%+4.3%
2024-03-28−31.8%−31.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−30.9%−32.5%+5.4%
3 best
2020-04-24+43.1%+0.0%+44.6%
2020-04-23+41.7%−2.0%+41.7%
2020-04-27+39.1%−0.3%+39.1%

2,527 overlapping windows · 2016-07-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.8%
n=10
Feb
70%
+6.4%
n=10
Mar
60%
+0.1%
n=10
Apr
60%
−1.2%
n=10
May
60%
+5.2%
n=10
Jun
90%
+5.8%
n=10
Jul
70%
+6.8%
n=10
Aug
91%
+5.4%
n=11
Sep
55%
−0.0%
n=11
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=10
Nov
70%
+7.9%
n=10
Dec
50%
−1.9%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$478$2902026-06-08: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Tangard Christopher R.2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $78K — Allibhai Salmaan K.2026-05-05: 6 insider sales, $6.8M — Kehoe Michael P …2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Petrucelli Bryan P.2026-02-26: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — Russell Frederick L. Jr., Hatcher Robert V. III2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $300K — Russell Frederick L. Jr.2025-12-15: 14 insider purchases, $1.0M — SHARE GREGORY M …2025-08-25: 5 insider sales, $2.3M — Kehoe Michael P …2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $2.3M2025-12: 14 open-market purchases, $1.0M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $3.8M2026-05: 7 open-market sales, $6.9M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $100K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Tangard Christopher R. — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Allibhai Salmaan K. — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Petrucelli Bryan P. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Russell Frederick L. Jr. — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hatcher Robert V. III — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Russell Frederick L. Jr. — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHARE GREGORY M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kehoe Michael P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Tangard Christopher R.officerPurchase330 @ $304.00$100K+660.0% of holding+11.3%not yet — horizon still open380Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26Allibhai Salmaan K.officerSale250 @ $311.17$78K−6.4% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open3,645Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale9,673 @ $302.79$2.9M−3.0% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open313,874Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale5,357 @ $301.88$1.6M−1.6% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open323,547Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale5,028 @ $303.53$1.5M−1.6% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open308,846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale1,720 @ $300.76$517K−0.5% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open328,904Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale638 @ $304.63$194K−0.2% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open308,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale160 @ $306.06$49K−0.1% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open308,048Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale5,100 @ $378.35$1.9M−7.5% of holding−6.0%−15.0%62,924Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26Russell Frederick L. Jr.directorSale4,000 @ $379.50$1.5M−89.7% of holding−6.7%−12.6%460Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26Hatcher Robert V. IIIdirectorSale150 @ $379.68$57K−6.7% of holding−6.7%−12.6%2,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24Russell Frederick L. Jr.directorSale801 @ $374.17$300K−63.5% of holding−9.8%−10.0%460Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase599 @ $391.10$234K+2.0% of holding−0.1%−30.5%31,131Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase532 @ $390.17$208K+1.8% of holding−0.1%−30.5%30,532Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase322 @ $391.89$126K+1.0% of holding−0.1%−30.5%31,453Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase280 @ $394.18$110K+0.9% of holding−0.1%−30.5%31,788Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase202 @ $391.10$79K+112.2% of holding−0.1%−30.5%382Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase180 @ $390.17$70Kownership Δ n/a−0.1%−30.5%180Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase118 @ $395.44$47K+0.4% of holding−0.1%−30.5%31,906Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase108 @ $391.89$42K+28.3% of holding−0.1%−30.5%490Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase95 @ $394.19$37K+18.7% of holding−0.1%−30.5%603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase94 @ $395.93$37K+0.3% of holding−0.1%−30.5%32,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase55 @ $393.04$22K+0.2% of holding−0.1%−30.5%31,508Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase41 @ $395.41$16K+6.8% of holding−0.1%−30.5%644Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase31 @ $395.93$12K+4.8% of holding−0.1%−30.5%675Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15SHARE GREGORY MdirectorPurchase18 @ $393.03$7K+3.7% of holding−0.1%−30.5%508Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale2,389 @ $452.90$1.1M−0.8% of holding−7.5%−25.4%303,475Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale1,198 @ $451.72$541K−0.4% of holding−7.5%−25.4%305,864Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale981 @ $450.19$442K−0.3% of holding−7.5%−25.4%307,062Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale381 @ $453.53$173K−0.1% of holding−7.5%−25.4%303,094Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Kehoe Michael PdirectorSale51 @ $454.78$23K−0.0% of holding−7.5%−25.4%303,043Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05Schnupp Diane D.officerSale1,398 @ $472.00$660K−17.4% of holding−1.9%−39.3%6,646Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-05Kronenberg Anne C.directorSale1,738 @ $455.44$792K−20.7% of holding−3.2%−36.7%6,655Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Kronenberg Anne C.directorSale262 @ $456.68$120K−3.9% of holding−3.2%−36.7%6,393Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Hatcher Robert V. IIIdirectorSale100 @ $446.76$45K−5.3% of holding+4.7%−24.3%1,787Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Lippincott Robert IIIdirectorSale1,545 @ $428.09$661K−15.9% of holding+17.4%−5.1%8,162Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale1,105 @ $441.79$488K−1.7% of holding+9.4%−0.7%64,741Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale742 @ $442.26$328K−1.1% of holding+9.4%−0.7%63,999Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale730 @ $444.76$325K−1.2% of holding+9.4%−0.7%62,644Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale700 @ $440.81$309K−1.1% of holding+9.4%−0.7%65,846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale625 @ $443.35$277K−1.0% of holding+9.4%−0.7%63,374Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale498 @ $445.65$222K−0.8% of holding+9.4%−0.7%62,146Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale300 @ $448.29$134K−0.5% of holding+9.4%−0.7%61,646Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale200 @ $447.21$89K−0.3% of holding+9.4%−0.7%61,946Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Petrucelli Bryan P.officerSale100 @ $449.26$45K−0.2% of holding+9.4%−0.7%61,546Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11Schnupp Diane D.officerSale500 @ $510.00$255K−6.7% of holding−12.2%−7.9%6,994Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05SHARE GREGORY MdirectorSale441 @ $500.98$221K−17.9% of holding−13.0%−7.9%2,025Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04RITCHIE JAMES JOSEPHdirectorSale1,085 @ $499.80$542K−11.9% of holding−13.8%−6.2%8,012Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04RITCHIE JAMES JOSEPHdirectorSale664 @ $500.85$333K−8.3% of holding−13.8%−6.2%7,348Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04RITCHIE JAMES JOSEPHdirectorSale546 @ $498.49$272K−5.7% of holding−13.8%−6.2%9,097Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-26Allibhai Salmaan K.officerOption exercise6003,895Form 4
2026-05-26Allibhai Salmaan K.officerOption exercise6000Form 4
2026-05-21Petrucelli Bryan P.officerGift26,10835,457Form 4
2026-05-21Petrucelli Bryan P.officerGift26,10829,307Form 4
2026-05-08Petrucelli Bryan P.officerGift1,75761,565Form 4
2026-05-08Petrucelli Bryan P.officerGift1,7573,199Form 4
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorOption exercise22,576330,624Form 4
2026-05-05Kehoe Michael PdirectorOption exercise22,5760Form 4
2026-05-04Petrucelli Bryan P.officerGift1,4421,442Form 4
2026-05-04Petrucelli Bryan P.officerGift1,44263,322Form 4
2026-03-01Kehoe Michael PdirectorWithheld for tax2,443308,048Form 4
2026-03-01Petrucelli Bryan P.officerWithheld for tax98264,764Form 4
2026-03-01Haney Brian D.directorWithheld for tax95396,571Form 4
2026-03-01Beachy Mark J.officerWithheld for tax7628,940Form 4
2026-03-01Schnupp Diane D.officerWithheld for tax7287,776Form 4
2026-03-01Winston Stuart PofficerWithheld for tax42115,430Form 4
2026-03-01Tangard Christopher R.officerWithheld for tax1212,883Form 4
2026-03-01Tangard Christopher R.officerAward / grant8983,004Form 4
2026-03-01Petrucelli Bryan P.officerAward / grant2,82265,746Form 4
2026-03-01Kehoe Michael PdirectorAward / grant7,698310,491Form 4
2026-03-01Schnupp Diane D.officerAward / grant1,9248,504Form 4
2026-03-01Beachy Mark J.officerAward / grant2,0539,702Form 4
2026-03-01Winston Stuart PofficerAward / grant1,41115,851Form 4
2026-02-27Petrucelli Bryan P.officerOption exercise5,10068,024Form 4
2026-02-27Petrucelli Bryan P.officerOption exercise5,1000Form 4
2026-02-26Russell Frederick L. Jr.directorOption exercise4,0004,460Form 4
2026-02-26Russell Frederick L. Jr.directorOption exercise4,0000Form 4
2026-02-25SHARE GREGORY MdirectorGift3543,054Form 4
2026-02-25SHARE GREGORY MdirectorGift354460Form 4
2026-02-25SHARE GREGORY MdirectorGift3543,054Form 4
2026-02-25SHARE GREGORY MdirectorGift354460Form 4
2026-01-01Lippincott Robert IIIdirectorAward / grant4608,622Form 4
2026-01-01BENSINGER STEVEN JdirectorAward / grant46028,848Form 4
2026-01-01SHARE GREGORY MdirectorAward / grant4602,839Form 4
2026-01-01Chia TeresadirectorAward / grant4603,042Form 4
2026-01-01Russell Frederick L. Jr.directorAward / grant4601,261Form 4
2026-01-01Haney Brian D.directorAward / grant46097,524Form 4
2026-01-01Kronenberg Anne C.directorAward / grant4606,753Form 4
2026-01-01Hatcher Robert V. IIIdirectorAward / grant4602,247Form 4
2026-01-01FORTIN MARY JANEdirectorAward / grant460814Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.