KNSAKiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plcHealthcare · Medical - Pharmaceuticalsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.62 · now $77.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KNSA has typically landed between $65.76 and $101.14 — a range of −15.3% to +30.3% from the issuance price $77.62.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,068 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-05-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KNSA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$65.76worst · -15.3%$101.14best · +30.3%
  • now $77.62 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $79.64 (+2.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $72.65–$86.62
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.76–$101.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,068 windows spanning 2018-05-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-09-19−43.2%−43.2%+0.0%
2019-09-18−42.3%−42.3%+0.5%
2020-02-18−38.7%−38.7%+10.1%
3 best
2018-08-09+106.4%+0.0%+106.4%
2018-08-08+93.1%+0.0%+93.1%
2019-11-12+92.0%−4.4%+92.0%

2,068 overlapping windows · 2018-05-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • 2027-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Transition to KPL-387 Monotherapy Dosing & Administration Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Phase 2/3 Study of Participants With Recurrent Pericarditis Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of KPL-387 (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=8
Feb
75%
+4.7%
n=8
Mar
38%
−4.2%
n=8
Apr
38%
+2.8%
n=8
May
63%
−0.8%
n=8
Jun
78%
+8.2%
n=9
Jul
67%
+6.5%
n=9
Aug
56%
+3.5%
n=9
Sep
44%
+0.9%
n=9
Oct
13%
−10.8%
n=8
Nov
88%
+19.3%
n=8
Dec
50%
+2.9%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$81$332026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $369K — Megna Michael R2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $299K — Cole G Bradley2026-05-01: 3 insider sales, $5.8M — Patel Sanj K, Paolini John F. …2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $116K — Patel Sanj K2026-04-29: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Patel Sanj K2026-04-28: 5 insider sales, $25.7M — Patel Sanj K, Quart Barry D …2026-04-09: 2 insider sales, $389K — Megna Michael R, Moat Ross2026-04-06: 3 insider sales, $824K — Patel Sanj K, Quart Barry D, Moat Ross2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $867K — Ragosa Mark2025-08: 10 open-market sales, $13.1M2025-09: 8 open-market sales, $6.8M2025-10: 10 open-market sales, $15.5M2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $1.3M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $503K2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $3.5M2026-04: 12 open-market sales, $28.3M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $5.8M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $299K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $369K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Megna Michael R — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed same daydirector Cole G Bradley — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed same dayofficer Paolini John F. — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Paolini John F. — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed same daydirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Quart Barry D — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Megna Michael R — Sale on 2026-04-09, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Moat Ross — Sale on 2026-04-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Patel Sanj K — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Quart Barry D — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Moat Ross — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ragosa Mark — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Megna Michael RofficerSale4,600 @ $80.30$369K−13.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open29,062Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-29Cole G BradleydirectorSale3,673 @ $81.43$299K−23.9% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open11,672Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Patel Sanj KdirectorSale48,565 @ $54.02$2.6M−100.0% of holding−20.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01Paolini John F.officerSale37,327 @ $53.52$2.0M−30.1% of holding−20.5%not yet — horizon still open86,720Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-01Paolini John F.officerSale21,097 @ $54.04$1.1M−24.3% of holding−20.5%not yet — horizon still open65,623Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Patel Sanj KdirectorSale2,141 @ $54.01$116K−100.0% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-29Patel Sanj KdirectorSale22,544 @ $54.01$1.2M−100.0% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28Patel Sanj KdirectorSale243,596 @ $52.02$12.7M−82.5% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open51,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28Patel Sanj KdirectorSale113,673 @ $51.47$5.9M−27.8% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open295,346Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28Patel Sanj KdirectorSale74,635 @ $50.43$3.8M−15.4% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open409,019Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28Patel Sanj KdirectorSale51,750 @ $54.02$2.8M−100.0% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28Quart Barry DdirectorSale13,099 @ $50.10$656K−51.1% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open12,546Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-09Megna Michael RofficerSale6,625 @ $46.69$309K−19.5% of holding+15.3%not yet — horizon still open27,418Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-09Moat RossofficerSale1,703 @ $46.69$80K−12.4% of holding+15.3%not yet — horizon still open12,029Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-06Patel Sanj KdirectorSale7,278 @ $50.01$364K−100.0% of holding+4.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06Quart Barry DdirectorSale6,901 @ $50.00$345K−35.5% of holding+4.7%not yet — horizon still open12,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06Moat RossofficerSale2,367 @ $48.58$115K−16.4% of holding+4.7%not yet — horizon still open12,029Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Ragosa MarkofficerSale18,741 @ $46.24$867K−60.8% of holding+0.7%+51.4%12,086Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorWithheld for tax15,14492,348Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorWithheld for tax15,14492,348Form 4
2026-09-01Megna Michael RofficerWithheld for tax5,53133,662Form 4
2026-09-01Ragosa MarkofficerWithheld for tax4,40420,854Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerWithheld for tax4,02969,922Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerWithheld for tax4,00716,307Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerOption exercise2,4970Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorAward / grant120,150120,150Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerOption exercise1,7403,481Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerAward / grant6,7006,700Form 4
2026-09-01Ragosa MarkofficerAward / grant31,15031,150Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise8,60925,826Form 4
2026-09-01Ragosa MarkofficerOption exercise1,7501,750Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise8,60925,826Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerAward / grant26,75026,750Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerOption exercise2,4577,371Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise9,9910Form 4
2026-09-01Ragosa MarkofficerOption exercise1,5913,182Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerOption exercise2,4577,371Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise6,23712,475Form 4
2026-09-01Megna Michael RofficerAward / grant14,60014,600Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerOption exercise1,6241,624Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise6,4816,481Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerAward / grant9,2509,250Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerOption exercise2,4770Form 4
2026-09-01Megna Michael RofficerOption exercise2,3624,725Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise6,4816,481Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerAward / grant36,95036,950Form 4
2026-09-01Moat RossofficerOption exercise1,6111,611Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise9,9910Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorOption exercise6,23712,475Form 4
2026-09-01Megna Michael RofficerOption exercise3,9320Form 4
2026-09-01Ragosa MarkofficerAward / grant7,8007,800Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorAward / grant30,05030,050Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorAward / grant120,150120,150Form 4
2026-09-01Ragosa MarkofficerOption exercise3,0699,206Form 4
2026-09-01Patel Sanj KdirectorAward / grant30,05030,050Form 4
2026-09-01Megna Michael RofficerOption exercise2,5582,557Form 4
2026-09-01Paolini John F.officerOption exercise1,7503,500Form 4
2026-09-01Megna Michael RofficerOption exercise2,6447,931Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.