Issued 2026-09-16 at $55.62 · now $55.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KNF has typically landed between $46.98 and $65.94 — a range of −15.5% to +18.6% from the issuance price $55.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
809 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-05-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($55.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KNF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $55.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $55.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $56.73 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $52.75–$60.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.98–$65.94
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-05-20 | −22.1% | −22.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-03 | −21.6% | −21.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | −21.4% | −21.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-30 | +31.6% | +0.0% | +39.9% |
| 2026-01-27 | +30.3% | −2.1% | +37.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | +29.1% | −2.6% | +36.3% |
809 overlapping windows · 2023-05-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Fagg Karen B | director | Award / grant | 197 | 1,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Carmona-Alvarez German | director | Award / grant | 2,040 | 9,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Chiodo Patricia | director | Award / grant | 2,040 | 5,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Fagg Karen B | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 33,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Hill Thomas W. | director | Award / grant | 2,040 | 5,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MOSS PATRICIA L | director | Award / grant | 2,040 | 31,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 2,040 | 7,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fagg Karen B | director | Award / grant | 222 | 1,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gray Brian R. | director | Award / grant | 20,955 | 84,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Liepitz Karl A | officer | Award / grant | 4,611 | 44,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Ring Nathan W | officer | Award / grant | 5,211 | 30,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | LaChapelle Sarah L. | officer | Award / grant | 2,713 | 4,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hastings Trevor J | officer | Award / grant | 6,130 | 46,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pladsen Glenn R. | officer | Award / grant | 2,950 | 22,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kadrmas Marney L. | officer | Award / grant | 1,199 | 4,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gray Brian R. | director | Withheld for tax | 19,572 | 63,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gray Brian R. | director | Withheld for tax | 10,072 | 83,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Liepitz Karl A | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,648 | 39,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Hastings Trevor J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,599 | 40,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ring Nathan W | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,336 | 25,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Hastings Trevor J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,880 | 45,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ring Nathan W | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,922 | 29,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Pladsen Glenn R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,569 | 19,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Pladsen Glenn R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,385 | 20,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kadrmas Marney L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,232 | 3,718 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Chiodo Patricia | director | Award / grant | 1,551 | 3,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | MOSS PATRICIA L | director | Award / grant | 1,551 | 29,834 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Fagg Karen B | director | Award / grant | 1,810 | 30,937 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | SANDBROOK WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 1,551 | 5,695 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Carmona-Alvarez German | director | Award / grant | 1,551 | 6,985 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Hill Thomas W. | director | Award / grant | 1,551 | 3,456 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Gray Brian R. | director | Award / grant | 12,599 | 93,436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Liepitz Karl A | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,083 | 48,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Hastings Trevor J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,016 | 48,109 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Ring Nathan W | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,698 | 31,577 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Christenson Nancy K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,583 | 25,776 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Pladsen Glenn R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,292 | 22,098 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Kadrmas Marney L. | officer | Award / grant | 709 | 4,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Hastings Trevor J | officer | Award / grant | 3,114 | 52,125 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Liepitz Karl A | officer | Award / grant | 2,770 | 55,432 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.