Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.09 · now $35.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KN has typically landed between $30.26 and $40.69 — a range of −13.8% to +16.0% from the issuance price $35.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,132 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-02-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $35.09 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.51 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.19–$37.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.26–$40.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,132 windows spanning 2014-02-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2014-09-18 | −41.1% | −41.1% | +0.0% |
| 2014-09-22 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2014-09-23 | −39.8% | −39.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2015-09-04 | +37.3% | −0.7% | +37.3% |
| 2015-09-14 | +34.8% | +0.0% | +38.4% |
| 2015-09-11 | +33.5% | −1.5% | +36.2% |
3,132 overlapping windows · 2014-02-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
58%
+2.2%
n=12
Feb
50%
−3.2%
n=12
Mar
46%
−1.9%
n=13
Apr
46%
+1.3%
n=13
May
69%
+3.4%
n=13
Jun
54%
+1.7%
n=13
Jul
62%
+2.9%
n=13
Aug
38%
−2.7%
n=13
Sep
46%
−2.6%
n=13
Oct
50%
−1.1%
n=12
Nov
67%
+5.9%
n=12
Dec
58%
+0.5%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | SHAVERS CHERYL L | director | Sale | 6,443 @ $39.27 | $253K | −15.2% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | SHAVERS CHERYL L | director | Sale | 175 @ $39.28 | $7K | −0.5% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 6,951 @ $38.00 | $264K | −1.0% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 683,719 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 43,049 @ $38.69 | $1.7M | −5.9% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 690,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $38.84 | $388K | −4.9% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $39.07 | $5.9M | −17.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 733,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $39.07 | $1.2M | −12.8% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Sale | 6,178 @ $36.28 | $224K | −4.6% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 10,189 @ $37.33 | $380K | −5.2% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 10,012 @ $37.31 | $374K | −5.4% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 142,857 @ $33.25 | $4.7M | −13.9% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 883,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 3,623 @ $30.91 | $112K | −7.1% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,569 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 2,153 @ $29.96 | $65K | −4.0% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,192 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 1,962 @ $30.26 | $59K | −3.5% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 2,262 @ $30.68 | $69K | −3.9% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Sale | 9,221 @ $27.88 | $257K | −100.0% of holding | −1.1% | +14.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Sale | 7,422 @ $28.10 | $209K | −8.5% of holding | −0.9% | +19.7% | 80,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | SHAVERS CHERYL L | director | Sale | 3,700 @ $27.40 | $101K | −9.3% of holding | −3.5% | +19.0% | 36,076 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | BARNES KEITH | director | Sale | 41,048 @ $27.16 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −6.2% | +18.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 16,006 @ $27.13 | $434K | −7.6% of holding | −3.3% | +15.5% | 194,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 8,994 @ $27.00 | $243K | −4.6% of holding | −3.3% | +15.5% | 185,691 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Sale | 3,166 @ $27.09 | $86K | −5.0% of holding | −3.3% | +15.5% | 60,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Sale | 15,885 @ $27.22 | $432K | −8.8% of holding | −4.2% | +16.6% | 164,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.75 | $268K | −8.9% of holding | −4.2% | +16.6% | 102,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 9,567 @ $26.75 | $256K | −16.6% of holding | −4.2% | +16.6% | 48,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 2,433 @ $26.82 | $65K | −4.0% of holding | −4.2% | +16.6% | 57,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $27.00 | $675K | −3.3% of holding | −4.1% | +16.5% | 739,370 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $26.50 | $663K | −3.2% of holding | −4.1% | +16.5% | 764,370 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $26.00 | $650K | −3.1% of holding | −4.1% | +16.5% | 789,370 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $25.50 | $638K | −3.0% of holding | +5.7% | +23.9% | 814,370 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $25.00 | $625K | −2.8% of holding | +10.2% | +34.6% | 864,370 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.50 | $613K | −2.9% of holding | +10.2% | +34.6% | 839,370 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.00 | $600K | −2.7% of holding | −4.3% | +58.5% | 889,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $23.50 | $588K | −2.7% of holding | −0.9% | +54.6% | 914,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $21.95 | $220K | −4.6% of holding | −4.9% | +54.1% | 207,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 1,440 @ $22.40 | $32K | −0.7% of holding | −4.9% | +54.1% | 205,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $21.50 | $215K | −4.4% of holding | −1.6% | +61.8% | 217,299 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.90 | $209K | −4.0% of holding | −1.6% | +61.8% | 237,299 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.80 | $208K | −4.2% of holding | −1.6% | +61.8% | 227,299 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 38,404 @ $23.55 | $904K | −3.9% of holding | −2.8% | +35.5% | 939,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 98,252 @ $23.71 | $2.3M | −9.5% of holding | −3.1% | +34.2% | 939,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | SHAVERS CHERYL L | director | Sale | 21,047 @ $20.02 | $421K | −34.6% of holding | +5.2% | +12.1% | 39,776 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.94 | $209K | −13.8% of holding | +1.8% | +6.6% | 62,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Sale | 29,412 @ $20.47 | $602K | −30.6% of holding | +1.6% | +6.4% | 66,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Sale | 26,718 @ $20.47 | $547K | −28.6% of holding | +1.6% | +6.4% | 66,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Sale | 5,337 @ $17.25 | $92K | −4.6% of holding | −1.8% | +13.7% | 111,286 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Sale | 208 @ $17.26 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −1.8% | +13.7% | 116,623 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Sale | 10,009 @ $17.02 | $170K | −11.7% of holding | −2.1% | +17.4% | 75,773 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-10 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Sale | 4,423 @ $19.50 | $86K | −100.0% of holding | +2.4% | −13.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Anderson John S. | officer | Sale | 93 @ $19.50 | $2K | −100.0% of holding | +2.4% | −13.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
137 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,599 | 134,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Option exercise | 25,210 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Option exercise | 25,210 | 151,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Option exercise | 142,857 | 1,026,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Option exercise | 142,857 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Crowley Daniel J | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 59,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SHAVERS CHERYL L | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 42,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | BARNES KEITH | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 63,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | WISHART MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 76,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Cardew Jason M | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 36,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Li Ye Jane | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 66,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Angelini Laura | director | Award / grant | 6,265 | 30,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Withheld for tax | 17,456 | 883,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Anderson John S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,731 | 234,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,968 | 196,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,086 | 126,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,086 | 87,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,347 | 57,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Withheld for tax | 15,943 | 901,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Anderson John S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,234 | 240,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,624 | 200,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,818 | 129,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,818 | 90,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,143 | 59,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 212,814 | 938,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Withheld for tax | 94,277 | 844,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Anderson John S. | officer | Award / grant | 64,489 | 250,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Award / grant | 39,685 | 204,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Award / grant | 34,725 | 95,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Award / grant | 29,764 | 131,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Anderson John S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,569 | 221,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,581 | 187,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,384 | 79,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,184 | 118,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Anderson John S. | officer | Award / grant | 23,950 | 245,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | PERNA ROBERT J | officer | Award / grant | 13,817 | 93,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Cabrera Raymond D. | officer | Award / grant | 13,817 | 132,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 72,955 | 917,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Bastarrica Air A. Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 11,054 | 62,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Giesecke Daniel J. | officer | Award / grant | 16,581 | 203,648 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-09 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2019-02-04 | 2019-01-03 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2019-02-04 | 2019-01-08 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2019-02-04 | 2019-01-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-01-11 | 2018-12-18 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2019-01-09 | 2018-12-13 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2019-01-09 | 2018-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2018-12-10 | 2018-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2018-12-10 | 2018-11-13 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2018-12-06 | 2018-11-12 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2018-12-06 | 2018-11-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.