KMXCarMax, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.80 · now $58.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KMX has typically landed between $47.66 and $69.59 — a range of −18.9% to +18.3% from the issuance price $58.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KMX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$47.66worst · -18.9%$69.59best · +18.3%
  • now $58.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.39 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.74–$63.05
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $47.66–$69.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−56.6%−56.6%+0.0%
2020-02-21−52.9%−56.3%+0.0%
2020-02-19−51.9%−51.9%+1.8%
3 best
2020-04-03+50.1%+0.0%+62.5%
2009-05-20+48.5%−3.9%+48.5%
2026-05-19+47.9%+0.0%+47.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Mar
58%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.7%
n=19
May
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
63%
+3.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
32%
−3.4%
n=19
Oct
33%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Dec
44%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$64$312026-06-25: 2 insider purchases, $137K — Chawla Sona, Shinder Marcella2026-06-24: 2 insider purchases, $503K — ONeil Mark F …2026-06-22: 2 insider purchases, $629K — Barr Keith, Bensen Peter J2025-10-02: 2 insider purchases, $591K — ONeil Mark F, STEENROD MITCHELL D2025-10: 2 open-market purchases, $591K2026-06: 6 open-market purchases, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Chawla Sona — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Shinder Marcella — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ONeil Mark F — Purchase on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ONeil Mark F — Purchase on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barr Keith — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bensen Peter J — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ONeil Mark F — Purchase on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STEENROD MITCHELL D — Purchase on 2025-10-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-25Chawla SonadirectorPurchase2,000 @ $53.39$107K+10.2% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open21,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Shinder MarcelladirectorPurchase574 @ $52.01$30K+2.4% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open24,993Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24ONeil Mark FdirectorPurchase4,800 @ $52.36$251K+19.4% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open29,490Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-24ONeil Mark FdirectorPurchase4,800 @ $52.36$251Kownership Δ n/a+9.5%not yet — horizon still open4,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22Barr KeithdirectorPurchase9,400 @ $53.01$498K+39.2% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open33,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22Bensen Peter JdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $52.20$131K+11.2% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open24,796Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-02ONeil Mark FdirectorPurchase10,816 @ $46.21$500K+78.0% of holding−10.9%−6.5%24,690Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02STEENROD MITCHELL DdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $45.57$91K+5.5% of holding−10.9%−6.5%38,330Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02Daniels Jon GofficerSale1,540 @ $70.64$109K−35.7% of holding−22.0%−56.5%2,779Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-24STEENROD MITCHELL DdirectorPurchase1,300 @ $65.49$85K+4.0% of holding−11.1%−57.9%33,577Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-28Tuite TylerofficerSale4,869 @ $84.58$412K−95.5% of holding−0.7%−37.6%227Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-15Livesay Jill AofficerSale13,009 @ $81.00$1.1M−57.9% of holding+7.9%−28.5%9,448Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-15Mayor-Mora Enrique NofficerSale5,000 @ $81.43$407K−19.8% of holding+7.9%−28.5%20,260Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Shamim MohammaddirectorSale12,845 @ $81.94$1.1M−52.3% of holding+1.7%−27.0%11,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-02Lyski JamesofficerSale57,986 @ $81.35$4.7M−71.8% of holding+0.7%−22.5%22,803Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-26Daniels Jon GofficerSale10,000 @ $85.30$853K−91.0% of holding+0.5%−20.8%995Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-24Daniels Jon GofficerSale30,245 @ $84.34$2.6M−96.8% of holding−0.1%−24.2%995Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-23Nash William DdirectorSale80,087 @ $83.43$6.7M−26.5% of holding+0.2%−24.4%222,109Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23Nash William DdirectorSale40,426 @ $82.85$3.3M−18.2% of holding+0.2%−24.4%181,683Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23Shamim MohammaddirectorSale10,000 @ $83.77$838K−46.0% of holding+0.2%−24.4%11,738Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-23Daniels Jon GofficerSale7,600 @ $84.00$638K−88.4% of holding+0.2%−24.4%995Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-26McCreight David W.directorAward / grant3,69639,530Form 4
2026-06-26Satriano PietrodirectorAward / grant3,69620,011Form 4
2026-06-26Chawla SonadirectorAward / grant3,69625,398Form 4
2026-06-26FOLLIARD THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant3,696227,754Form 4
2026-06-26ONeil Mark FdirectorAward / grant3,69633,186Form 4
2026-06-26Shinder MarcelladirectorAward / grant3,69628,689Form 4
2026-06-26Bensen Peter JdirectorAward / grant3,69628,492Form 4
2026-06-26COBB WILLIAM CdirectorAward / grant3,6963,696Form 4
2026-06-26OShaughnessy RobertdirectorAward / grant3,6963,696Form 4
2026-06-26KESSLER JAMES FRANCISdirectorAward / grant3,6963,696Form 4
2026-06-23FOLLIARD THOMAS JdirectorOption exercise14,855227,676Form 4
2026-06-23FOLLIARD THOMAS JdirectorWithheld for tax3,618224,058Form 4
2026-06-23FOLLIARD THOMAS JdirectorOption exercise14,8550Form 4
2026-05-01Cafritz Diane LdirectorWithheld for tax1,0159,564Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Charles JosephofficerWithheld for tax1,01519,025Form 4
2026-05-01Mayor-Mora Enrique NofficerWithheld for tax1,01522,868Form 4
2026-05-01Shamim MohammaddirectorWithheld for tax1,01514,523Form 4
2026-05-01Daniels Jon GofficerWithheld for tax8221,957Form 4
2026-05-01Stuckey John M IIIofficerWithheld for tax3572,493Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerWithheld for tax31910,956Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Charles JosephofficerAward / grant22,89822,898Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerOption exercise1,7990Form 4
2026-05-01Stuckey John M IIIofficerOption exercise2,0090Form 4
2026-05-01Daniels Jon GofficerAward / grant14,65514,655Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerAward / grant5,6675,667Form 4
2026-05-01Barr KeithdirectorAward / grant64,11464,114Form 4
2026-05-01Shamim MohammaddirectorAward / grant16,94416,944Form 4
2026-05-01Stuckey John M IIIofficerAward / grant10,07510,075Form 4
2026-05-01Cafritz Diane LdirectorAward / grant22,89822,898Form 4
2026-05-01Mayor-Mora Enrique NofficerAward / grant22,89822,898Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerAward / grant8,0298,029Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerOption exercise1,05911,275Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerOption exercise1,05911,275Form 4
2026-05-01Stuckey John M IIIofficerOption exercise1,1832,850Form 4
2026-05-01Stuckey John M IIIofficerOption exercise1,1832,850Form 4
2026-05-01Livesay Jill AofficerAward / grant8,0298,029Form 4
2026-03-22Tuite TylerofficerOption exercise3080Form 4
2026-03-22Tuite TylerofficerOption exercise9860Form 4
2026-03-22Tuite TylerofficerOption exercise1951,664Form 4
2026-03-22Tuite TylerofficerOption exercise6111,469Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.