KMTKennametal Inc.Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.70 · now $29.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KMT has typically landed between $25.54 and $34.83 — a range of −14.0% to +17.3% from the issuance price $29.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.54worst · -14.0%$34.83best · +17.3%
  • now $29.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.66 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.61–$31.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.54–$34.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−51.1%−51.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−49.9%−49.9%+0.0%
2008-09-26−44.9%−44.9%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+53.2%+0.0%+61.6%
2020-03-23+47.7%+0.0%+55.0%
2020-03-30+46.9%+0.0%+46.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Mar
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Apr
70%
+5.4%
n=20
May
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Jun
45%
−1.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.6%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.6%
n=20
Oct
60%
+3.0%
n=20
Nov
55%
+4.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$43$202026-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $204K — Chowbey Sanjay2026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $293K — Bacchus Judith L2026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $611K — Keating Michelle R2026-09-04: 1 insider purchase, $151K — HARSHMAN RICHARD J2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $197K — Bacchus Judith L2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $988K — Patel Sagar A2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $398K — Reilly Carlonda R.2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $487K — Reilly Carlonda R.2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $194K — Witt John Wayne2026-02-11: 2 insider sales, $2.6M — Bacchus Judith L, Keating Michelle R2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $487K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-09: 2 open-market purchases, $355K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $904K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Chowbey Sanjay — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bacchus Judith L — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Keating Michelle R — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HARSHMAN RICHARD J — Purchase on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bacchus Judith L — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Patel Sagar A — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reilly Carlonda R. — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reilly Carlonda R. — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Witt John Wayne — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bacchus Judith L — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Keating Michelle R — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Chowbey SanjaydirectorPurchase7,000 @ $29.10$204K+2.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open246,839Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08Bacchus Judith LdirectorSale9,676 @ $30.29$293K−38.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open15,721Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-04Keating Michelle RofficerSale20,000 @ $30.54$611K−44.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open25,272Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-04HARSHMAN RICHARD JdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $30.21$151Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-15Bacchus Judith LdirectorSale5,488 @ $35.94$197K−54.7% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open4,554Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08Patel Sagar AdirectorSale29,499 @ $33.50$988K−100.0% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02Reilly Carlonda R.officerSale12,013 @ $33.12$398K−32.3% of holding+1.5%not yet — horizon still open25,143Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Reilly Carlonda R.officerSale13,410 @ $36.31$487K−25.7% of holding−0.7%−32.9%38,746Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Witt John WayneofficerSale5,060 @ $38.29$194K−75.6% of holding−6.7%−34.0%1,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Bacchus Judith LdirectorSale39,051 @ $40.23$1.6M−79.5% of holding−0.8%−36.7%10,042Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Keating Michelle RofficerSale24,617 @ $40.22$990K−52.5% of holding−0.8%−36.7%22,310Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11Chowbey SanjaydirectorPurchase10,000 @ $21.75$218K+14.8% of holding+6.4%−5.5%77,595Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04Cardenas FranklinofficerSale20,470 @ $28.24$578K−34.1% of holding−12.9%−19.4%39,581Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Bersaglini Clark DavidofficerOption exercise11,59633,709Form 4
2026-09-01Bersaglini Clark DavidofficerWithheld for tax5,07828,631Form 4
2026-09-01Bersaglini Clark DavidofficerOption exercise11,59611,596Form 4
2026-09-01HARSHMAN RICHARD JdirectorAward / grant5,3105,310Form 4
2026-09-01HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant5,3105,310Form 4
2026-09-01HARSHMAN RICHARD JdirectorAward / grant271271Form 4
2026-08-25DIETRICH DOUGLAS TdirectorAward / grant98217,085Form 4
2026-08-25Bausch Shelley JdirectorAward / grant81116,897Form 4
2026-08-15Sternlieb PauldirectorAward / grant4,9654,965Form 4
2026-08-15Patel Sagar AdirectorAward / grant4,9654,965Form 4
2026-08-15Keating Michelle RofficerAward / grant8,3548,354Form 4
2026-08-15Reilly Carlonda R.officerAward / grant6,5556,555Form 4
2026-08-15Bacchus Judith LdirectorAward / grant7,1407,140Form 4
2026-08-15ALVARADO JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant4,9654,965Form 4
2026-08-15Bausch Shelley JdirectorAward / grant4,9654,965Form 4
2026-08-15Witt John WayneofficerAward / grant3,1203,120Form 4
2026-08-15Chowbey SanjaydirectorAward / grant54,96954,969Form 4
2026-08-15Cole Amanda MarieofficerAward / grant4,8054,805Form 4
2026-08-15DIETRICH DOUGLAS TdirectorAward / grant4,9654,965Form 4
2026-08-15Watson Patrick SofficerAward / grant13,26613,266Form 4
2026-08-15Hamadi FaisalofficerOption exercise3,7307,461Form 4
2026-08-15Martin Lorraine MdirectorAward / grant4,9654,965Form 4
2026-08-15Hamadi FaisalofficerAward / grant7,9127,912Form 4
2026-08-14Chowbey SanjaydirectorOption exercise25,372258,995Form 4
2026-08-14Chowbey SanjaydirectorWithheld for tax19,156239,839Form 4
2026-08-14Watson Patrick SofficerWithheld for tax9,45482,006Form 4
2026-08-14Keating Michelle RofficerWithheld for tax7,77445,272Form 4
2026-08-14Bacchus Judith LdirectorWithheld for tax7,45225,397Form 4
2026-08-14Watson Patrick SofficerOption exercise6,34591,460Form 4
2026-08-14Reilly Carlonda R.officerWithheld for tax6,25143,753Form 4
2026-08-14ALVARADO JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise6,09236,443Form 4
2026-08-14LAMBERT WILLIAM MdirectorOption exercise6,09283,084Form 4
2026-08-14Bersaglini Clark DavidofficerOption exercise4,56424,327Form 4
2026-08-14Keating Michelle RofficerOption exercise3,99653,046Form 4
2026-08-14Hamadi FaisalofficerOption exercise3,73023,262Form 4
2026-08-14Witt John WayneofficerOption exercise3,65711,753Form 4
2026-08-14Witt John WayneofficerWithheld for tax3,5748,179Form 4
2026-08-14Bacchus Judith LdirectorOption exercise3,53432,849Form 4
2026-08-14Reilly Carlonda R.officerOption exercise3,13550,004Form 4
2026-08-14Martin Lorraine MdirectorOption exercise2,29945,368Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.