Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.19 · now $8.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KMDA has typically landed between $7.15 and $9.67 — a range of −12.7% to +18.1% from the issuance price $8.19.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,322 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-06-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KMDA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.19 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.2 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.69–$8.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.15–$9.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2014-04-28 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +0.3% |
| 2014-04-29 | −45.7% | −46.0% | +0.0% |
| 2014-04-23 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-12 | +49.4% | −0.2% | +49.4% |
| 2019-10-25 | +47.8% | −1.8% | +47.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +47.6% | +0.0% | +48.0% |
3,322 overlapping windows · 2013-06-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Tsur David | director | Sale | 175 @ $8.26 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 430,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Tsur David | director | Sale | 162,760 @ $8.26 | $1.3M | −27.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 430,931 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Tsur David | director | Sale | 14,238 @ $8.28 | $118K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 593,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
297 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Tsur David | director | Option exercise | 26,500 | 634,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tsur David | director | Option exercise | 22,500 | 630,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tsur David | director | Withheld for tax | 6,406 | 607,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tsur David | director | Withheld for tax | 2,760 | 607,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Brenner Yael | officer | Option exercise | 3,036 | 9,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Brenner Yael | officer | Withheld for tax | 865 | 6,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tsur David | director | Option exercise | 26,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Tsur David | director | Option exercise | 22,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Brenner Yael | officer | Option exercise | 3,036 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Brenner Yael | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 16,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Brenner Yael | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,776 | 6,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Brenner Yael | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Asher-Topilsky Lilach | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | RECANATI LEON | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Botzer Uri | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Tsur David | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Payorski Lilach | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | ITSHAYEK ASSAF | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Goldwasser Karnit | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Dekel Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | DAVIDI ISHAY | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Disposition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Disposition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Disposition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Disposition | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Disposition | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Disposition | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Beladev Shavit | officer | Disposition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brenner Yael | officer | Disposition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Disposition | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nir Eran | officer | Award / grant | 22,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.