Issued 2026-09-25 at $187.92 · now $187.92 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, KLAC has typically landed between $159.60 and $230.07 — a range of −15.1% to +22.4% from the issuance price $187.92.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($187.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KLAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $187.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $187.92 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $192.81 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $179.2–$206.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $159.6–$230.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +3.4% |
| 2008-09-26 | −40.9% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | −40.2% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-29 | +57.0% | +0.0% | +57.0% |
| 2026-05-19 | +49.1% | +0.0% | +49.1% |
| 2026-05-20 | +47.1% | +0.0% | +47.1% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$62.30
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$120.78
- Analyst target · range $145.00–$325.00$200.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$187.92
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 72,019 @ $171.88 | $12.4M | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 706,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 59,586 @ $208.13 | $12.4M | −43.4% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 31,500 @ $209.87 | $6.6M | −9.3% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 87,568 @ $198.95 | $17.4M | −10.1% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 778,944 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Sale | 33,180 @ $198.95 | $6.6M | −12.2% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 238,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 1,661 @ $204.56 | $340K | −4.3% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 529 @ $204.56 | $108K | −3.8% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 21,831 @ $197.57 | $4.3M | −36.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 2,405 @ $197.57 | $475K | −14.9% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,771 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 13,802 @ $195.50 | $2.7M | −38.4% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 4,504 @ $195.50 | $881K | −36.1% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,972 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 4,295 @ $191.59 | $823K | −10.7% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,912 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 1,565 @ $191.59 | $300K | −11.1% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 27,701 @ $265.69 | $7.4M | −9.5% of holding | −24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 263,472 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 196 @ $265.69 | $52K | −1.0% of holding | −24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,575 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 14,392 @ $285.30 | $4.1M | −21.2% of holding | −31.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 4,512 @ $2213.37 | $10.0M | −5.9% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,383 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 4,512 @ $1794.00 | $8.1M | −5.6% of holding | +33.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,895 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Hanley Jeneanne Michelle | director | Sale | 550 @ $1874.71 | $1.0M | −13.4% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 297 @ $1879.02 | $558K | −13.2% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 2,254 @ $1237.01 | $2.8M | −6.6% of holding | +26.0% | +101.8% | 32,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 10,803 @ $1203.10 | $13.0M | −11.7% of holding | +3.9% | +49.3% | 81,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Sale | 4,564 @ $900.00 | $4.1M | −16.7% of holding | +21.9% | +53.0% | 22,808 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Sale | 13,716 @ $881.50 | $12.1M | −33.4% of holding | +20.1% | +59.7% | 27,372 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 2,301 @ $878.53 | $2.0M | −6.3% of holding | +14.6% | +62.1% | 34,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 10,801 @ $913.68 | $9.9M | −10.4% of holding | +0.4% | +50.5% | 92,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 8,049 @ $913.68 | $7.4M | −41.2% of holding | +0.4% | +50.5% | 11,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 1,022 @ $913.00 | $933K | −11.6% of holding | −1.5% | +48.5% | 7,802 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 338 @ $913.00 | $309K | −13.0% of holding | −1.5% | +48.5% | 2,254 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 1,920 @ $917.00 | $1.8M | −44.4% of holding | −4.3% | +38.6% | 2,403 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 511 @ $917.00 | $469K | −30.5% of holding | −4.3% | +38.6% | 1,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 763 @ $896.75 | $684K | −11.7% of holding | −9.6% | +38.7% | 5,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 320 @ $896.75 | $287K | −13.1% of holding | −9.6% | +38.7% | 2,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 39 @ $891.50 | $35K | −1.5% of holding | −3.9% | +21.9% | 2,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $891.16 | $1.2M | −15.7% of holding | +0.6% | +29.3% | 7,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $766.46 | $781K | −3.5% of holding | +11.5% | +31.6% | 27,779 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 10,802 @ $683.30 | $7.4M | −12.1% of holding | +10.7% | +54.9% | 78,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 7,008 @ $724.62 | $5.1M | −19.6% of holding | +0.5% | +33.2% | 28,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 14,306 @ $663.01 | $9.5M | −13.7% of holding | −3.7% | +19.4% | 90,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Sale | 9,676 @ $818.51 | $7.9M | −23.1% of holding | −11.2% | −14.7% | 32,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-07 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 5,361 @ $740.63 | $4.0M | −13.0% of holding | −3.3% | −8.9% | 35,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-07 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 2,038 @ $740.63 | $1.5M | −12.2% of holding | −3.3% | −8.9% | 14,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 17,437 @ $705.01 | $12.3M | −14.2% of holding | −3.4% | −10.0% | 105,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-06 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 1,291 @ $705.01 | $910K | −7.2% of holding | −3.4% | −10.0% | 16,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-06 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 814 @ $705.01 | $574K | −23.7% of holding | −3.4% | −10.0% | 2,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-05 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 2,369 @ $649.84 | $1.5M | −19.9% of holding | −0.4% | −9.1% | 9,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-05 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 825 @ $649.84 | $536K | −16.3% of holding | −0.4% | −9.1% | 4,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-05 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 709 @ $649.84 | $461K | −3.4% of holding | −0.4% | −9.1% | 19,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-05 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Sale | 242 @ $675.00 | $163K | −2.5% of holding | −0.4% | −9.1% | 9,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-02 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 44 @ $819.40 | $36K | −0.3% of holding | −8.8% | −32.0% | 14,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-02 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Sale | 44 @ $819.40 | $36K | −1.2% of holding | −8.8% | −32.0% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-23 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $788.58 | $804K | −3.1% of holding | +3.0% | −30.4% | 31,356 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-21 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Sale | 7,833 @ $760.00 | $6.0M | −19.6% of holding | +3.9% | −30.9% | 32,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-07 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Sale | 14,009 @ $716.63 | $10.0M | −13.1% of holding | +5.9% | −18.0% | 93,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | Lorig Brian | officer | Sale | 3,537 @ $699.16 | $2.5M | −19.9% of holding | +6.0% | −18.3% | 14,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-26 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Sale | 7,018 @ $705.04 | $4.9M | −17.8% of holding | +0.7% | +2.0% | 32,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
224 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Withheld for tax | 12,762 | 866,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,532 | 339,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,532 | 271,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Lorig Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,876 | 137,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,208 | 60,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Withheld for tax | 521 | 16,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Withheld for tax | 87,481 | 791,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Withheld for tax | 46,467 | 838,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,975 | 343,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,975 | 275,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,671 | 244,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,671 | 312,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Lorig Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,389 | 140,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,520 | 61,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Lorig Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,854 | 127,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,355 | 47,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,365 | 16,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Award / grant | 62,476 | 306,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Award / grant | 87,420 | 334,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Award / grant | 62,476 | 374,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Award / grant | 352,875 | 878,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Award / grant | 93,721 | 884,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Award / grant | 40,841 | 879,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Award / grant | 25,440 | 52,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Award / grant | 24,987 | 72,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Lorig Brian | officer | Award / grant | 39,735 | 137,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Lorig Brian | officer | Award / grant | 24,987 | 152,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Award / grant | 9,540 | 19,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Award / grant | 87,420 | 265,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Lorig Brian | officer | Award / grant | 15,961 | 97,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Award / grant | 24,411 | 246,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wilkinson Mary Beth | officer | Award / grant | 5,070 | 27,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kirloskar Virendra A | officer | Award / grant | 1,549 | 9,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Award / grant | 24,411 | 178,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Withheld for tax | 89,787 | 525,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,278 | 154,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Higgins Bren D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,170 | 222,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | WALLACE RICHARD P | director | Withheld for tax | 19,951 | 615,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lorig Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,081 | 81,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Khan Ahmad A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,759 | 177,375 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Elizabeth Fletcher | House | sale | 2026-05-01 | 2026-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-18 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-04-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-07-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.