Issued 2026-09-16 at $96.84 · now $96.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KKR has typically landed between $81.62 and $114.46 — a range of −15.7% to +18.2% from the issuance price $96.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,562 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($96.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KKR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $96.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $96.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $98.51 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $91.13–$105.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $81.62–$114.46
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,562 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-11-03 | −59.3% | −60.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-05 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-14 | −58.3% | −58.3% | +3.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-13 | +95.2% | +0.0% | +95.2% |
| 2009-03-04 | +90.4% | +0.0% | +90.4% |
| 2009-03-12 | +90.1% | +0.0% | +90.1% |
4,562 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$89.2B
market cap
$2.98
EPS (TTM)
33.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$19.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.77
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$70.40
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$48.82
- Analyst target · range $112.00–$187.00$125.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$96.84
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+4.2%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.3%
n=19
May
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jun
63%
+4.7%
n=19
Jul
84%
+7.9%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.9%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | HOLMES DANE E | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $108.58 | $1.1M | −54.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | BARAKETT TIMOTHY R | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $94.47 | $4.7M | +21.3% of holding | +1.3% | +1.4% | 285,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Dillon Mary N | director | Purchase | 22,225 @ $90.96 | $2.0M | +81.2% of holding | +7.1% | +9.0% | 49,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $88.56 | $4.4M | +9.8% of holding | +10.7% | +11.4% | 559,257 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $87.81 | $4.4M | +0.3% of holding | +10.7% | +11.4% | 14,406,748 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Purchase | 90,127 @ $102.87 | $9.3M | +0.6% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 15,503,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Purchase | 63,467 @ $102.49 | $6.5M | +15.3% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 479,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Cohler Matt | director | Purchase | 43,872 @ $102.90 | $4.5M | +2733.5% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 45,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Purchase | 34,761 @ $102.13 | $3.6M | +0.2% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 15,413,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Purchase | 30,082 @ $103.17 | $3.1M | +6.3% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 509,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Purchase | 22,801 @ $100.39 | $2.3M | +5.9% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 407,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Purchase | 8,650 @ $101.30 | $876K | +2.1% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 415,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Purchase | 112 @ $103.41 | $12K | +0.0% of holding | −8.5% | −8.3% | 15,503,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | BARAKETT TIMOTHY R | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $104.93 | $5.2M | +27.0% of holding | −16.1% | −7.8% | 235,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | ROBERTS GEORGE R | director | Sale | 809,906 @ $144.25 | $116.8M | −1.0% of holding | −5.0% | −37.1% | 81,361,978 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | ROBERTS GEORGE R | director | Sale | 1,190,094 @ $119.80 | $142.6M | −1.4% of holding | +5.4% | −14.9% | 82,171,884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | KRAVIS HENRY R | director | Sale | 1,150,469 @ $119.80 | $137.8M | −1.6% of holding | +5.4% | −14.9% | 73,006,022 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | KRAVIS HENRY R | director | Sale | 130,925 @ $121.67 | $15.9M | −100.0% of holding | +5.4% | −14.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-22 | BARAKETT TIMOTHY R | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $117.92 | $4.1M | +23.3% of holding | +3.7% | −15.5% | 185,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | SCULLY ROBERT W | director | Purchase | 13,250 @ $113.49 | $1.5M | ownership Δ n/a | +0.2% | −17.2% | 13,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Gift | 122,403 | 2,211,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Gift | 345,849 | 1,607,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Lewin Robert H | officer | Gift | 10,000 | 1,186,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | HOLMES DANE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 390,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | HOLMES DANE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 18,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | HOLMES DANE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 18,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | HOLMES DANE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 18,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | HOLMES DANE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 18,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Sudol Kathryn King | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lewin Robert H | officer | Award / grant | 650,000 | 650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | BARAKETT TIMOTHY R | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 2,771 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Brown Adriane M | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 13,270 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gutierrez Arturo | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 14,385 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Ross Kimberly A. | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 5,872 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | SCULLY ROBERT W | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 95,464 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | ARNOLD CRAIG | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 1,847 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Spiegel Evan | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 12,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | NIEL XAVIER BRUNO | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 31,878 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Cohler Matt | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 1,605 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Dillon Mary N | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 1,605 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | RUSSO PATRICIA F | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 88,464 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | KRAVIS HENRY R | director | Gift | 350,000 | 5,460,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | ARNOLD CRAIG | director | Award / grant | 242 | 242 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Gift | 194,000 | 1,702,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Gift | 194,000 | 1,135,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Gift | 398,335 | 1,554,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Gift | 398,335 | 1,952,902 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | Lewin Robert H | officer | Gift | 2,500 | 1,196,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Other acquisition | 1,592 | 7,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Other acquisition | 1,592 | 7,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | ROBERTS GEORGE R | director | Gift | 200,000 | 1,200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Lewin Robert H | officer | Gift | 10,000 | 1,199,226 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Other acquisition | 3,184 | 7,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Gift | 47,001 | 1,497,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | NUTTALL SCOTT C | director | Gift | 47,001 | 1,497,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | KRAVIS HENRY R | director | Other acquisition | 250,377 | 1,549,369 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | BAE JOSEPH Y | director | Other acquisition | 3,184 | 7,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | KRAVIS HENRY R | director | Other acquisition | 250,377 | 1,549,369 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | BARAKETT TIMOTHY R | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 1,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | KRAVIS HENRY R | director | Gift | 208,676 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-05-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-12-29 | 2025-11-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.