KHCThe Kraft Heinz CompanyConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.73 · now $24.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KHC has typically landed between $22.53 and $27.19 — a range of −8.9% to +10.0% from the issuance price $24.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,796 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.53worst · -8.9%$27.19best · +10.0%
  • now $24.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.64 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.65–$25.63
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.53–$27.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,796 windows spanning 2015-07-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-02-12−32.9%−33.1%+0.3%
2019-02-05−32.9%−33.1%+0.3%
2019-02-21−32.2%−33.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-12+39.2%+0.0%+40.1%
2020-03-23+38.5%+0.0%+41.2%
2020-03-19+30.9%−6.8%+31.6%

2,796 overlapping windows · 2015-07-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$30.4B
market cap
$-4.83
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$24.9B
'20'25
Net income−$5.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-23.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-14.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.51
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $24.73$17.41$25.92
  • DCF (intrinsic)$25.33
  • Analyst target · range $18.00–$25.00$23.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$24.73

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Feb
45%
−3.9%
n=11
Mar
64%
+0.8%
n=11
Apr
64%
+2.5%
n=11
May
55%
−1.5%
n=11
Jun
55%
+0.2%
n=11
Jul
64%
+2.2%
n=11
Aug
42%
−3.1%
n=12
Sep
33%
−2.8%
n=12
Oct
36%
+2.2%
n=11
Nov
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Dec
55%
+0.3%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$212026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $427K — Frost Diana2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $5.0M — CAHILLANE STEVEN A2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $121K — Onell Cory2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $223K — Onell Cory2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Patricio Miguel2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Patricio Miguel2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $6.2M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $344K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $5.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $427K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Frost Diana — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CAHILLANE STEVEN A — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Onell Cory — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same dayofficer Onell Cory — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Patricio Miguel — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Patricio Miguel — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Frost DianadirectorSale18,502 @ $23.05$427K−15.3% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open102,667Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-12CAHILLANE STEVEN AdirectorPurchase213,106 @ $23.46$5.0M+50.5% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open635,160Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Onell CoryofficerSale4,991 @ $24.34$121K−2.5% of holding−3.1%−3.8%197,463Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Onell CoryofficerSale9,045 @ $24.61$223K−4.3% of holding−1.7%−5.6%202,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-18Patricio MigueldirectorSale125,000 @ $24.84$3.1M−18.2% of holding−11.1%−15.4%561,817Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17Patricio MigueldirectorSale125,000 @ $24.82$3.1M−15.4% of holding−5.2%−19.7%686,817Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-18Sceti Elio LeonidirectorSale25,000 @ $27.91$698K−38.5% of holding−4.5%−23.7%40,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-17Sceti Elio LeonidirectorSale25,000 @ $25.91$648K−27.8% of holding+2.7%−15.5%65,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-04Garlati VinceofficerSale4,261 @ $31.60$135K−7.6% of holding+0.4%−21.5%51,697Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Onell CoryofficerSale3,085 @ $31.60$97K−2.0% of holding+0.4%−21.5%150,711Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03Garlati VinceofficerSale12,270 @ $30.70$377K−18.0% of holding+1.8%−23.6%55,958Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Onell CoryofficerSale10,387 @ $30.68$319K−6.3% of holding+1.8%−23.6%153,796Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-14CAHILL JOHN TdirectorAward / grant13,085175,133Form 4
2026-05-14Fouche Lori DickersondirectorAward / grant7,93733,399Form 4
2026-05-14Sceti Elio LeonidirectorAward / grant7,93751,201Form 4
2026-05-14Cox L KevindirectorAward / grant7,9378,070Form 4
2026-05-14POPE JOHN CdirectorAward / grant7,93779,237Form 4
2026-05-14PALMER ANTHONY J.directorAward / grant7,9377,937Form 4
2026-05-14Alfonso Humberto PdirectorAward / grant7,93729,384Form 4
2026-05-14Kelley Mary LoudirectorAward / grant7,9377,937Form 4
2026-05-14Gherson Diane JdirectorAward / grant7,93724,113Form 4
2026-05-14Sceti Elio LeonidirectorAward / grant3,21856,625Form 4
2026-05-14Alfonso Humberto PdirectorAward / grant3,21834,048Form 4
2026-05-14Kelley Mary LoudirectorAward / grant7938,730Form 4
2026-05-14PALMER ANTHONY J.directorAward / grant7938,730Form 4
2026-03-01Patricio MigueldirectorWithheld for tax59,528166,489Form 4
2026-03-01Maciel AndreofficerWithheld for tax36,137583,364Form 4
2026-03-01Torres FlavioofficerWithheld for tax25,026292,125Form 4
2026-03-01Onell CoryofficerWithheld for tax19,696211,499Form 4
2026-03-01Camacho Rodolfo M.officerWithheld for tax13,255214,701Form 4
2026-03-01Frost DianadirectorWithheld for tax10,668119,469Form 4
2026-03-01Maciel AndreofficerAward / grant6,187581,330Form 4
2026-03-01Aydin Janelle MarieofficerWithheld for tax4,602124,535Form 4
2026-03-01Willis Angel SdirectorAward / grant4,127105,537Form 4
2026-03-01Asher ChrisofficerWithheld for tax3,34378,518Form 4
2026-03-01Aydin Janelle MarieofficerAward / grant2,881118,351Form 4
2026-03-01Camacho Rodolfo M.officerAward / grant2,618209,491Form 4
2026-03-01Asher ChrisofficerAward / grant1,98277,490Form 4
2026-03-01Maciel AndreofficerAward / grant86,348554,522Form 4
2026-03-01Maciel AndreofficerAward / grant20,621575,143Form 4
2026-03-01CAHILLANE STEVEN AdirectorAward / grant182,853414,530Form 4
2026-03-01AMAYA NICOLASofficerAward / grant48,25448,254Form 4
2026-03-01Frost DianadirectorAward / grant40,361116,943Form 4
2026-03-01Frost DianadirectorAward / grant13,194130,137Form 4
2026-03-01Onell CoryofficerAward / grant32,000210,326Form 4
2026-03-01Onell CoryofficerAward / grant20,869231,195Form 4
2026-03-01Aydin Janelle MarieofficerAward / grant10,786129,137Form 4
2026-03-01Aydin Janelle MarieofficerAward / grant9,603115,470Form 4
2026-03-01Asher ChrisofficerAward / grant9,14470,554Form 4
2026-03-01Asher ChrisofficerAward / grant4,95475,508Form 4
2026-03-01Asher ChrisofficerAward / grant4,37181,861Form 4
2026-03-01Camacho Rodolfo M.officerAward / grant40,940198,148Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatepurchase2026-06-112026-05-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132024-11-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.