KGKestrel Group Ltdas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.87 · now $5.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KG has typically landed between $3.84 and $7.69 — a range of −34.7% to +30.9% from the issuance price $5.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

306 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-05-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.84worst · -34.7%$7.69best · +30.9%
  • now $5.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.44 (-7.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.7–$6.18
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.84–$7.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 306 windows spanning 2025-05-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-10-24−46.5%−46.5%+0.2%
2025-10-21−45.7%−45.7%+1.1%
2025-10-22−45.0%−45.9%+0.8%
3 best
2026-01-28+52.1%+0.0%+52.1%
2026-01-29+51.4%+0.0%+51.4%
2026-01-26+49.7%+0.0%+49.7%

306 overlapping windows · 2025-05-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+15.9%
n=1
Feb
100%
+29.7%
n=1
Mar
0%
−29.8%
n=1
Apr
0%
−10.0%
n=1
May
100%
+15.6%
n=1
Jun
50%
−7.7%
n=2
Jul
100%
+2.9%
n=2
Aug
0%
−11.8%
n=2
Sep
50%
−7.8%
n=2
Oct
0%
−27.4%
n=1
Nov
0%
−24.9%
n=1
Dec
0%
−31.2%
n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$30$6↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10Cohen ErikdirectorAward / grant5,7188,055Form 4
2026-06-10Hotchkiss MichaeldirectorAward / grant5,7188,055Form 4
2026-06-10Weissmann JeffreydirectorAward / grant5,7188,055Form 4
2026-06-10NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant5,71822,055Form 4
2026-06-10Brecher JosephdirectorAward / grant5,71813,555Form 4
2026-03-18Ledbetter Terry LeedirectorDisposition12,749133,039Form 4
2026-03-18LEDBETTER BRADFORD LUKEdirectorWithheld for tax12,749133,039Form 4
2026-03-18Haveron Patrick JofficerWithheld for tax12,749221,618Form 4
2026-03-18Ledbetter Terry LeedirectorAward / grant97,19297,192Form 4
2026-03-18LEDBETTER BRADFORD LUKEdirectorAward / grant48,596145,788Form 4
2026-03-18Haveron Patrick JofficerAward / grant48,596270,214Form 4
2026-03-18LEDBETTER BRADFORD LUKEdirectorAward / grant97,19297,192Form 4
2026-03-18Haveron Patrick JofficerAward / grant97,192234,367Form 4
2026-03-18Ledbetter Terry LeedirectorAward / grant48,596145,788Form 4
2026-03-14Haveron Patrick JofficerWithheld for tax6,724137,175Form 4
2025-09-05NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant2,33716,337Form 4
2025-09-05Brecher JosephdirectorAward / grant2,3377,837Form 4
2025-09-05Cohen ErikdirectorAward / grant2,3372,337Form 4
2025-09-05Hotchkiss MichaeldirectorAward / grant2,3372,337Form 4
2025-09-05Weissmann JeffreydirectorAward / grant2,3372,337Form 4
2025-05-27NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant600600Form 4
2025-05-27Haveron Patrick JofficerAward / grant17,086143,899Form 4
2025-05-27Brecher JosephdirectorAward / grant5,5005,500Form 4
2025-05-27METZ LAWRENCE F.officerAward / grant91,17791,177Form 4
2025-05-27METZ LAWRENCE F.officerAward / grant11,420102,597Form 4
2025-05-27NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant12,24012,240Form 4
2025-05-27NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant1,76014,000Form 4
2025-05-27LEDBETTER BRADFORD LUKEdirectorAward / grant905,882905,882Form 4
2025-05-27Ledbetter Terry LeedirectorAward / grant905,882905,882Form 4
2025-05-27Haveron Patrick JofficerAward / grant17,086143,899Form 4
2025-05-27Ledbetter Terry LeedirectorAward / grant905,882905,882Form 4
2025-05-27Brecher JosephdirectorAward / grant5,5005,500Form 4
2025-05-27Haveron Patrick JofficerAward / grant126,813126,813Form 4
2025-05-27METZ LAWRENCE F.officerAward / grant91,17791,177Form 4
2025-05-27METZ LAWRENCE F.officerAward / grant11,420102,597Form 4
2025-05-27LEDBETTER BRADFORD LUKEdirectorAward / grant905,882905,882Form 4
2025-05-27NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant12,24012,240Form 4
2025-05-27Haveron Patrick JofficerAward / grant126,813126,813Form 4
2025-05-27NIGRO STEVEN HAROLDdirectorAward / grant1,76014,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.