Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.43 · now $77.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KFY has typically landed between $68.50 and $86.59 — a range of −11.5% to +11.8% from the issuance price $77.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KFY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $77.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $78.16 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $73.94–$82.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $68.5–$86.59
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −47.4% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-10 | +47.8% | +0.0% | +47.8% |
| 2009-07-09 | +46.7% | −0.6% | +46.7% |
| 2016-11-08 | +46.5% | +0.0% | +46.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | MARTINEZ ANGEL R | director | Sale | 3,740 @ $79.00 | $295K | −11.7% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,260 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | Uren Lesley | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $78.75 | $158K | −6.2% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,109 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Distefano Michael | officer | Sale | 3,370 @ $74.55 | $251K | −4.0% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Robinson Lori Jean | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $69.44 | $139K | −8.1% of holding | −9.1% | −11.3% | 22,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-09 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 16,864 @ $70.01 | $1.2M | −7.8% of holding | −8.4% | −11.6% | 198,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 31,784 @ $70.59 | $2.2M | −12.9% of holding | −7.6% | −14.5% | 215,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 28,352 @ $70.61 | $2.0M | −10.3% of holding | −7.3% | −10.2% | 247,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Distefano Michael | officer | Sale | 9,605 @ $72.25 | $694K | −15.0% of holding | −3.9% | −18.1% | 54,271 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 28,058 @ $74.21 | $2.1M | −13.9% of holding | −7.1% | −20.3% | 173,118 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 9,629 @ $73.74 | $710K | −4.6% of holding | −7.1% | −20.3% | 201,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 53,173 @ $73.86 | $3.9M | −19.5% of holding | −5.8% | −19.5% | 219,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Sale | 9,140 @ $74.68 | $683K | −4.2% of holding | −5.8% | −19.5% | 210,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $73.00 | $1.5M | −19.0% of holding | −5.2% | −21.4% | 85,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $72.52 | $1.5M | −15.9% of holding | −5.2% | −21.4% | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Arian Mark | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $72.24 | $1.4M | −22.5% of holding | +0.1% | −3.7% | 68,869 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | MacDonald Jeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 507 | 45,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Withheld for tax | 77,343 | 348,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Withheld for tax | 31,427 | 316,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,507 | 168,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Distefano Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,200 | 89,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,984 | 158,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Distefano Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,926 | 83,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | MacDonald Jeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,701 | 46,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Distefano Michael | officer | Award / grant | 35,770 | 107,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Award / grant | 152,010 | 425,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Award / grant | 62,590 | 195,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Award / grant | 75,200 | 273,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Distefano Michael | officer | Award / grant | 16,750 | 71,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | MacDonald Jeanne | officer | Award / grant | 16,750 | 50,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Uren Lesley | officer | Award / grant | 13,700 | 32,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Award / grant | 28,030 | 132,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Shimer Peter A | director | Award / grant | 1,660 | 1,660 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Gift | 22,470 | 104,834 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Robinson Lori Jean | director | Award / grant | 2,720 | 24,540 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | ESPE MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 2,720 | 9,160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Beneby Doyle N | director | Award / grant | 2,720 | 42,660 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Bishop Laura M | director | Award / grant | 2,720 | 15,060 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Hagey Russell | director | Award / grant | 4,010 | 7,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | MARTINEZ ANGEL R | director | Award / grant | 2,720 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Leamon Jerry | director | Award / grant | 2,720 | 22,072 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | MacDonald Jeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 506 | 33,375 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Withheld for tax | 62,328 | 298,179 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Withheld for tax | 22,737 | 275,442 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,347 | 134,624 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,320 | 127,304 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | Distefano Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,188 | 63,876 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | Distefano Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,667 | 68,064 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | MacDonald Jeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,448 | 35,850 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | MacDonald Jeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,969 | 33,881 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | Distefano Michael | officer | Award / grant | 7,220 | 71,731 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Award / grant | 43,320 | 152,971 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | Distefano Michael | officer | Award / grant | 13,590 | 64,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Award / grant | 67,960 | 237,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | BURNISON GARY D | director | Award / grant | 122,740 | 360,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | ROZEK ROBERT P | officer | Award / grant | 25,150 | 109,651 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.