Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.19 · now $52.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KFRC has typically landed between $45.30 and $59.72 — a range of −13.2% to +14.4% from the issuance price $52.19.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KFRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.19 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $52.17 (-0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $48.92–$55.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.3–$59.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-07-22 | −39.8% | −43.5% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-21 | −38.9% | −42.6% | +1.6% |
| 2011-07-08 | −38.6% | −38.6% | +8.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-27 | +61.7% | −0.5% | +61.7% |
| 2009-03-30 | +59.4% | +0.0% | +59.4% |
| 2026-03-30 | +58.4% | −4.3% | +58.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | SIMMONS N JOHN | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $54.90 | $110K | −7.9% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,424 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Purchase | 336 @ $32.71 | $11K | +18.9% of holding | −3.4% | +8.0% | 2,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Sale | 490 @ $40.83 | $20K | −21.6% of holding | +2.5% | −42.0% | 1,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $37.45 | $37K | +0.2% of holding | +3.0% | −37.3% | 521,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $37.47 | $112K | +0.6% of holding | +3.7% | −35.2% | 520,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $37.80 | $38K | +0.2% of holding | +4.3% | −55.3% | 517,329 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $38.16 | $191K | +1.0% of holding | −0.8% | −55.5% | 516,329 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | THOMAS ANDREW G | officer | Sale | 7,100 @ $51.79 | $368K | −6.9% of holding | +4.3% | −43.4% | 96,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
145 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | ROSEN ELAINE | director | Other acquisition | 331 | 42,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SIMMONS N JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 38 | 23,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Cloudman Catherine | director | Other acquisition | 64 | 10,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | THOMAS ANDREW G | officer | Other acquisition | 338 | 118,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | LIBERATORE JOSEPH J | director | Other acquisition | 1,728 | 342,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hackman Jeffrey B. | officer | Other acquisition | 470 | 118,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | KELLY DAVID M | officer | Other acquisition | 659 | 139,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | FURLONG MARK F | director | Other acquisition | 38 | 34,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Dunwoody Ann E. | director | Other acquisition | 82 | 10,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Other acquisition | 97 | 12,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Other acquisition | 83 | 10,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Other acquisition | 38 | 6,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Mehl Randall | director | Other acquisition | 235 | 30,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Dunwoody Ann E. | director | Code L | 160 | 23,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Cloudman Catherine | director | Other acquisition | 65 | 10,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | SIMMONS N JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 38 | 25,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Mehl Randall | director | Other acquisition | 237 | 29,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | THOMAS ANDREW G | officer | Other acquisition | 342 | 118,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Other acquisition | 38 | 6,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Other acquisition | 84 | 10,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Other acquisition | 100 | 12,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Dunwoody Ann E. | director | Other acquisition | 82 | 10,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | FURLONG MARK F | director | Other acquisition | 38 | 34,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Hackman Jeffrey B. | officer | Other acquisition | 478 | 118,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KELLY DAVID M | officer | Other acquisition | 672 | 138,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | LIBERATORE JOSEPH J | director | Other acquisition | 1,755 | 340,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | ROSEN ELAINE | director | Other acquisition | 335 | 42,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Mehl Randall | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 29,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | ROSEN ELAINE | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 41,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | DUNKEL DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 12,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Dunwoody Ann E. | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 10,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | FURLONG MARK F | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 34,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Brooks Derrick Dewan | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 6,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | SIMMONS N JOHN | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 25,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cloudman Catherine | director | Award / grant | 4,782 | 10,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunwoody Ann E. | director | Code L | 284 | 23,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Mehl Randall | director | Other acquisition | 360 | 24,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | SIMMONS N JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 48 | 20,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Dunwoody Ann E. | director | Other acquisition | 82 | 5,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | THOMAS ANDREW G | officer | Other acquisition | 617 | 117,848 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.