KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc.Technology · Hardware, Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $322.04 · now $322.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KEYS has typically landed between $280.94 and $371.89 — a range of −12.8% to +15.5% from the issuance price $322.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,973 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-10-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($322.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KEYS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $322.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$280.94worst · -12.8%$371.89best · +15.5%
  • now $322.04 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $325.42 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $306.42–$344.41
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $280.94–$371.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,973 windows spanning 2014-10-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-07-26−24.4%−24.4%+0.0%
2023-07-24−23.5%−23.5%+0.5%
2023-07-25−23.1%−23.9%+0.0%
3 best
2026-01-29+41.6%−2.2%+41.6%
2026-01-23+41.6%+0.0%+41.6%
2026-01-26+41.0%+0.0%+41.0%

2,973 overlapping windows · 2014-10-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$54.5B
market cap
$6.07
EPS (TTM)
52.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-18
next earnings
Revenue$5.4B
'20'25
Net income$846M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.51
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $322.04$67.85$451.46
  • DCF (intrinsic)$94.30
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$207.62
  • Analyst target · range $376.00–$425.00$388.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$322.04

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
58%
+1.1%
n=12
Feb
67%
+4.7%
n=12
Mar
58%
−0.5%
n=12
Apr
33%
−0.3%
n=12
May
58%
+3.6%
n=12
Jun
58%
+1.4%
n=12
Jul
50%
+1.4%
n=12
Aug
67%
+2.5%
n=12
Sep
58%
+0.2%
n=12
Oct
73%
+2.3%
n=11
Nov
83%
+7.5%
n=12
Dec
42%
+0.3%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$373$1592026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $652K — Estrada Ingrid A2026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $958K — NYE JEAN MCCLUNG2026-08-20: 1 insider sale, $629K — Estrada Ingrid A2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $682K — Estrada Ingrid A2026-06-25: 1 insider sale, $183K — Dhanasekaran Satish2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — CULLEN JAMES2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $240K — HAMADA RICHARD P2026-03-24: 3 insider sales, $1.7M — Dougherty Neil, Li Jeffrey K, Dhanasekaran Satish2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $483K — Dhanasekaran Satish2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $8.6M — Nersesian Ronald S.2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $304K — JUSKIE JO ANN2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $475K — Estrada Ingrid A2025-12-30: 1 insider sale, $184K — YOON SUNG2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $204K — Dougherty Neil2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — PAGE JOHN2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $894K — Dhanasekaran Satish2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $790K — Li Jeffrey K2025-12-01: 4 insider sales, $4.7M — Dhanasekaran Satish, Estrada Ingrid A, NARAYANAN KAILASH, PAGE JOHN2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $5.9M — Nersesian Ronald S.2025-09-17: 2 insider sales, $373K — Estrada Ingrid A, POOLE LISA M.2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $373K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $5.9M2025-12: 9 open-market sales, $9.9M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $780K2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $11.0M2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $652K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Estrada Ingrid A — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradedirector NYE JEAN MCCLUNG — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Estrada Ingrid A — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Estrada Ingrid A — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dhanasekaran Satish — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CULLEN JAMES — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HAMADA RICHARD P — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dougherty Neil — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Li Jeffrey K — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dhanasekaran Satish — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dhanasekaran Satish — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nersesian Ronald S. — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer JUSKIE JO ANN — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Estrada Ingrid A — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer YOON SUNG — Sale on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dougherty Neil — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer PAGE JOHN — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dhanasekaran Satish — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Li Jeffrey K — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dhanasekaran Satish — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Estrada Ingrid A — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer NARAYANAN KAILASH — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer PAGE JOHN — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nersesian Ronald S. — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Estrada Ingrid A — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer POOLE LISA M. — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale2,000 @ $326.10$652K−1.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open101,861Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-21NYE JEAN MCCLUNGdirectorSale3,000 @ $319.22$958K−7.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open35,752Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale2,000 @ $314.66$629K−1.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open103,861Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-30Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale2,000 @ $340.87$682K−1.9% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open105,861Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-25Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorSale507 @ $361.32$183K−0.4% of holding−13.5%not yet — horizon still open121,391Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02CULLEN JAMESdirectorSale3,000 @ $346.58$1.0M−12.1% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open21,821Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-30HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorSale870 @ $275.78$240K−2.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open42,160Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-24Dougherty NeilofficerSale2,000 @ $298.37$597K−1.6% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open125,272Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-24Li Jeffrey KofficerSale2,000 @ $297.19$594K−5.5% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open34,499Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-24Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorSale1,667 @ $300.00$500K−1.3% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open122,398Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-19Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorSale1,667 @ $290.00$483K−1.3% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open124,065Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-17Nersesian Ronald S.directorSale30,000 @ $285.96$8.6M−15.5% of holding+9.9%−0.9%163,377Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27JUSKIE JO ANNofficerSale1,000 @ $304.42$304K−7.4% of holding−4.7%−8.6%12,552Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale2,000 @ $237.68$475K−1.8% of holding+23.3%+18.2%107,861Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-30YOON SUNGofficerSale889 @ $206.66$184K−5.0% of holding+4.3%+43.4%16,953Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-22Dougherty NeilofficerSale1,000 @ $203.72$204K−0.8% of holding+3.9%+69.0%127,833Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-12-10PAGE JOHNofficerSale15,000 @ $213.48$3.2M−41.2% of holding−3.3%+56.3%21,393Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorSale4,230 @ $211.43$894K−3.2% of holding−3.4%+52.9%128,131Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03Li Jeffrey KofficerSale3,934 @ $200.84$790K−9.7% of holding+0.2%+51.2%36,699Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorSale12,528 @ $196.42$2.5M−8.6% of holding+2.3%+65.9%132,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale4,827 @ $196.42$948K−4.2% of holding+2.3%+65.9%110,079Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01NARAYANAN KAILASHofficerSale3,201 @ $196.42$629K−6.8% of holding+2.3%+65.9%43,917Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01PAGE JOHNofficerSale3,175 @ $196.42$624K−8.0% of holding+2.3%+65.9%36,393Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-28Nersesian Ronald S.directorSale30,000 @ $196.88$5.9M−13.1% of holding+3.2%+63.3%198,389Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-17Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale2,000 @ $173.98$348K−1.8% of holding−6.6%+67.2%106,590Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-17POOLE LISA M.officerSale142 @ $173.56$25K−3.0% of holding−6.6%+67.2%4,646Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-30Dougherty NeilofficerSale12,215 @ $164.60$2.0M−9.6% of holding−0.4%+14.3%115,228Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-20Estrada Ingrid AofficerSale10,000 @ $158.97$1.6M−8.4% of holding−2.1%+11.1%108,590Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30PAGE JOHNofficerSale7,368 @ $157.78$1.2M−16.6% of holding−0.4%+9.4%36,986Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorSale658 @ $157.78$104K−0.6% of holding−0.4%+9.4%115,576Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29Stephens Kevin AdirectorPurchase280 @ $159.00$45K+3.0% of holding−1.7%+7.8%9,550Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorSale1,589 @ $162.00$257K−3.6% of holding−2.5%−7.6%42,160Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-27Dougherty NeilofficerSale3,632 @ $155.00$563K−3.1% of holding−4.4%−5.7%115,063Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-27Dougherty NeilofficerSale3,632 @ $155.00$563K−3.1% of holding−4.4%−5.7%115,063Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-30WALLACE Mark ADAMofficerSale6,000 @ $161.79$971K−6.5% of holding+8.3%−3.3%85,829Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-04Li Jeffrey KofficerSale4,412 @ $171.92$759K−12.6% of holding−2.4%−4.9%30,637Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-03Nersesian Ronald S.directorSale41,911 @ $170.41$7.1M−15.0% of holding−2.6%−5.1%236,805Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-03Gooi Soon ChaiofficerSale18,212 @ $171.34$3.1M−7.3% of holding−2.6%−5.1%230,787Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Reese ScottdirectorAward / grant435435Form 4
2026-08-01POOLE LISA M.officerWithheld for tax326,334Form 4
2026-07-06ALLOUCHE ARNAUDofficerAward / grant1,4741,474Form 4
2026-05-26JUSKIE JO ANNofficerWithheld for tax13612,486Form 4
2026-05-18Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorWithheld for tax500121,898Form 4
2026-03-20HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorAward / grant87043,030Form 4
2026-03-20Jensen KeithdirectorAward / grant8701,277Form 4
2026-03-20Olsen Joanne BethdirectorAward / grant87013,092Form 4
2026-03-20Holthaus Michelle JohnstondirectorAward / grant8708,483Form 4
2026-03-20Nersesian Ronald S.directorAward / grant870164,247Form 4
2026-03-20Stephens Kevin AdirectorAward / grant87010,420Form 4
2026-03-20CULLEN JAMESdirectorAward / grant87024,821Form 4
2026-03-20NYE JEAN MCCLUNGdirectorAward / grant87038,752Form 4
2026-03-20Dockendorff Charles JdirectorAward / grant87055,213Form 4
2026-01-12Nersesian Ronald S.directorWithheld for tax5,012193,377Form 4
2025-12-30YOON SUNGofficerGift50016,453Form 4
2025-12-30Dougherty NeilofficerGift561127,272Form 4
2025-12-11Dougherty NeilofficerWithheld for tax358128,833Form 4
2025-12-11Estrada Ingrid AofficerWithheld for tax218109,861Form 4
2025-12-11JUSKIE JO ANNofficerWithheld for tax20313,552Form 4
2025-12-11YOON SUNGofficerWithheld for tax15217,842Form 4
2025-12-11KARY JASON ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax11218,660Form 4
2025-12-11PAGE JOHNofficerWithheld for tax7021,173Form 4
2025-12-11Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorGift2,400125,732Form 4
2025-12-10NYE JEAN MCCLUNGdirectorGift48590Form 4
2025-12-10PAGE JOHNofficerGift15021,243Form 4
2025-12-04NYE JEAN MCCLUNGdirectorGift2,50037,882Form 4
2025-12-03Li Jeffrey KofficerGift20036,499Form 4
2025-11-21POOLE LISA M.officerWithheld for tax456,366Form 4
2025-11-20Dhanasekaran SatishdirectorWithheld for tax4,050144,889Form 4
2025-11-20Dougherty NeilofficerWithheld for tax1,549129,191Form 4
2025-11-20NARAYANAN KAILASHofficerWithheld for tax96647,118Form 4
2025-11-20Estrada Ingrid AofficerWithheld for tax959114,906Form 4
2025-11-20Li Jeffrey KofficerWithheld for tax93340,633Form 4
2025-11-20PAGE JOHNofficerWithheld for tax46539,568Form 4
2025-11-20KARY JASON ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax41518,772Form 4
2025-11-20YOON SUNGofficerWithheld for tax18517,994Form 4
2025-11-20POOLE LISA M.officerWithheld for tax1226,411Form 4
2025-11-20JUSKIE JO ANNofficerWithheld for tax10913,755Form 4
2025-11-20Jensen KeithdirectorAward / grant397407Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-22$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-17$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-11$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.