KEYKeyCorpFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.72 · now $20.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KEY has typically landed between $17.95 and $24.17 — a range of −13.4% to +16.6% from the issuance price $20.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KEY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.95worst · -13.4%$24.17best · +16.6%
  • now $20.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.81 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.47–$22.16
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.95–$24.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−57.8%−57.8%+2.3%
2020-02-21−56.0%−58.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−53.6%−58.8%+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-09+74.9%+0.0%+111.3%
2008-10-10+60.5%+0.0%+100.0%
2009-03-05+52.7%−4.3%+63.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$24.4B
market cap
$1.72
EPS (TTM)
13.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$11.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.54
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $20.72$-36.77$32.99
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-31.96
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$28.18
  • Analyst target · range $23.00–$28.00$25.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$20.72

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
42%
+0.2%
n=19
Mar
47%
−2.9%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.8%
n=19
May
47%
−2.7%
n=19
Jun
58%
−1.5%
n=19
Jul
58%
+4.3%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Sep
26%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.9%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$24$162026-07-22: 1 insider sale, $569K — Ramani Mohit2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $500K — Gile Elizabeth R.2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $494K — Mago Angela G2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Paine Andrew J III2026-01-29: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Mago Angela G2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $711K — Evans Trina M2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $867K — Paine Andrew J III2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $881K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $867K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1.5M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $494K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $500K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $569K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Ramani Mohit — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gile Elizabeth R. — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mago Angela G — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Paine Andrew J III — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mago Angela G — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Evans Trina M — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Paine Andrew J III — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22Ramani MohitofficerSale25,000 @ $22.74$569K−45.6% of holding−7.5%not yet — horizon still open29,855Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03Gile Elizabeth R.directorSale23,946 @ $20.88$500K−53.0% of holding+12.3%not yet — horizon still open21,255Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Mago Angela GofficerSale22,826 @ $21.66$494K−7.5% of holding+3.4%not yet — horizon still open281,564Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Paine Andrew J IIIofficerSale65,961 @ $23.23$1.5M−28.4% of holding−12.1%−12.9%166,583Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29Mago Angela GofficerSale62,850 @ $21.55$1.4M−19.4% of holding−2.2%−1.7%261,415Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22Evans Trina MofficerSale32,695 @ $21.74$711K−35.8% of holding−1.6%−0.8%58,719Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09Paine Andrew J IIIofficerSale44,953 @ $19.29$867K−15.5% of holding−9.1%+0.4%245,044Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Brady Amy G.directorSale50,000 @ $17.61$881K−60.6% of holding+7.6%+24.0%32,523Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-24Evans Trina MofficerSale17,000 @ $18.67$317K−17.0% of holding+0.9%+7.4%82,719Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-23Gorman Christopher M.directorSale112,149 @ $18.86$2.1M−15.3% of holding−3.6%+8.0%619,895Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12Brady Amy G.directorSale19,000 @ $16.09$306K−18.7% of holding+7.7%+16.4%82,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Highsmith Carlton LdirectorSale5,000 @ $16.60$83K−11.9% of holding−4.7%−5.6%37,177Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

288 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-07BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition176,803157,470,114Form 4
2026-07-01CUTLER ALEXANDER MdirectorOption exercise26,89339,609Form 4
2026-07-01VASOS TODD JdirectorOption exercise27,38550,598Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise20,168150,043Form 4
2026-07-01CUTLER ALEXANDER MdirectorOption exercise26,893325,309Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise20,168113,108Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise1,52692,940Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise1,52692,940Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise20,168113,108Form 4
2026-07-01VASOS TODD JdirectorOption exercise27,38562,640Form 4
2026-07-01CUTLER ALEXANDER MdirectorOption exercise26,893325,309Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise1,5267,823Form 4
2026-07-01VASOS TODD JdirectorOption exercise27,38562,640Form 4
2026-07-01Snyder Barbara RdirectorOption exercise1,5267,823Form 4
2026-06-30BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition238,461157,646,917Form 4
2026-06-30CUTLER ALEXANDER MdirectorAward / grant73266,502Form 4
2026-06-30Hayes RobindirectorAward / grant1,35552,753Form 4
2026-06-30VASOS TODD JdirectorAward / grant1,84377,983Form 4
2026-06-30Rankin Devina AdirectorAward / grant1,35591,287Form 4
2026-06-23BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition205,976157,885,378Form 4
2026-06-16BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition277,182158,091,354Form 4
2026-06-09BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition355,338158,368,536Form 4
2026-05-27BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition162,692158,723,874Form 4
2026-05-19BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition220,354158,886,566Form 4
2026-05-14Tobin Richard JdirectorAward / grant7,35284,896Form 4
2026-05-14CUTLER ALEXANDER MdirectorAward / grant7,35265,174Form 4
2026-05-14VASOS TODD JdirectorAward / grant7,35275,450Form 4
2026-05-14Henson Christopher LdirectorAward / grant7,3527,352Form 4
2026-05-14Hipple Richard JdirectorAward / grant7,35226,777Form 4
2026-05-14Dallas H JamesdirectorAward / grant7,35226,777Form 4
2026-05-14Hayes RobindirectorAward / grant7,35250,933Form 4
2026-05-14Khanna SomeshdirectorAward / grant7,35216,551Form 4
2026-05-14Gile Elizabeth R.directorAward / grant7,352132,059Form 4
2026-05-14Rankin Devina AdirectorAward / grant7,35289,117Form 4
2026-05-14DeSpirito Antonio IIIdirectorAward / grant7,3527,352Form 4
2026-05-14Snyder Barbara RdirectorAward / grant7,352168,668Form 4
2026-05-14Allard JacquidirectorAward / grant7,35216,551Form 4
2026-05-12BANK OF NOVA SCOTIAdirectorDisposition235,628159,106,920Form 4
2026-05-11Snyder Barbara RdirectorDisposition9,05991,288Form 4
2026-05-11Dallas H JamesdirectorDisposition9,059138,769Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-12$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.