KEELKeel Infrastructure Corp.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.40 · now $3.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KEEL has typically landed between $2.23 and $5.69 — a range of −34.5% to +67.5% from the issuance price $3.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,757 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-08-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KEEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.23worst · -34.5%$5.69best · +67.5%
  • now $3.4 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.23 (-4.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.66–$3.81
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.23–$5.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,757 windows spanning 2019-08-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-10-15−59.8%−59.8%+0.0%
2020-02-11−57.7%−57.7%+0.0%
2020-02-13−57.7%−57.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-12-11+672.5%+0.0%+672.5%
2020-12-09+583.7%+0.0%+583.7%
2020-12-10+520.4%−5.6%+520.4%

1,757 overlapping windows · 2019-08-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
43%
+19.8%
n=7
Feb
43%
+8.4%
n=7
Mar
29%
−12.0%
n=7
Apr
71%
+13.3%
n=7
May
43%
+6.7%
n=7
Jun
43%
−6.0%
n=7
Jul
86%
+15.1%
n=7
Aug
43%
−4.0%
n=7
Sep
25%
−2.3%
n=8
Oct
43%
+11.7%
n=7
Nov
57%
+14.7%
n=7
Dec
29%
+22.8%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$7$12026-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $129K — Gagnon Benjamin2026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $100K — WILSON LIAM DANIEL2026-08-17: 1 insider purchase, $100K — WILSON LIAM DANIEL2026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $196K — Gagnon Benjamin2026-08: 4 open-market purchases, $526K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Gagnon Benjamin — Purchase on 2026-08-21, filed same dayofficer WILSON LIAM DANIEL — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed same dayofficer WILSON LIAM DANIEL — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed same daydirector Gagnon Benjamin — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Gagnon BenjamindirectorPurchase38,888 @ $3.33$129K+2.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,386,624Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20WILSON LIAM DANIELofficerPurchase30,769 @ $3.25$100K+43.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open100,978Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17WILSON LIAM DANIELofficerPurchase26,472 @ $3.78$100K+60.5% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open70,209Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13Gagnon BenjamindirectorPurchase58,888 @ $3.33$196K+4.6% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open1,347,736Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

28 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10WILSON LIAM DANIELofficerWithheld for tax32,68743,737Form 4
2026-07-10Ammann Marc-AndreofficerWithheld for tax15,18313,297Form 4
2026-07-10Silverstein Rachel RoseofficerWithheld for tax6,83712,923Form 4
2026-07-10Gagnon BenjamindirectorOption exercise215,579431,159Form 4
2026-07-10Silverstein Rachel RoseofficerOption exercise18,37019,760Form 4
2026-07-10Silverstein Rachel RoseofficerOption exercise18,37036,739Form 4
2026-07-10WILSON LIAM DANIELofficerOption exercise76,42476,424Form 4
2026-07-10WILSON LIAM DANIELofficerOption exercise76,424152,849Form 4
2026-07-10Ammann Marc-AndreofficerOption exercise28,48028,480Form 4
2026-07-10Ammann Marc-AndreofficerOption exercise28,48056,961Form 4
2026-07-10Gagnon BenjamindirectorOption exercise215,5791,288,848Form 4
2026-07-09Aiyer GaneshofficerAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-07-09Aiyer GaneshofficerAward / grant259,516259,516Form 4
2026-06-27Gagnon BenjamindirectorDisposition500,0000Form 4
2026-06-27Gagnon BenjamindirectorAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2026-06-27Gagnon BenjamindirectorDisposition500,0000Form 4
2026-06-27Gagnon BenjamindirectorAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2026-04-02Hofmeister EdithdirectorAward / grant101,010101,010Form 4
2026-04-02Howlett BriandirectorAward / grant101,010101,010Form 4
2026-04-02Silverstein Rachel RoseofficerAward / grant267,638267,638Form 4
2026-04-02Freedman AmydirectorAward / grant101,010101,010Form 4
2026-04-02Gagnon BenjamindirectorAward / grant1,665,3001,665,300Form 4
2026-04-02Ammann Marc-AndreofficerAward / grant267,638267,638Form 4
2026-04-02WILSON LIAM DANIELofficerAward / grant743,438743,438Form 4
2026-04-02Mir JonathanofficerAward / grant743,438743,438Form 4
2026-04-02Chang AndrewdirectorAward / grant101,010101,010Form 4
2026-04-02Duso WaynedirectorAward / grant101,010101,010Form 4
2026-04-02Philip FannydirectorAward / grant101,010101,010Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.