Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.78 · now $24.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KE has typically landed between $20.76 and $28.87 — a range of −16.2% to +16.5% from the issuance price $24.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,963 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.52 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.84–$26.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.76–$28.87
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-03 | −33.1% | −33.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −32.9% | −32.9% | +2.9% |
| 2020-02-21 | −30.9% | −34.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-01 | +59.1% | +0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2025-08-05 | +57.6% | +0.0% | +57.6% |
| 2025-08-06 | +56.8% | +0.0% | +56.8% |
2,963 overlapping windows · 2014-11-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Korn Steven T | officer | Gift | 4,000 | 132,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Korn Steven T | officer | Gift | 1,000 | 131,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Phillips Richard D | director | Withheld for tax | 30,391 | 46,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Korn Steven T | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,660 | 136,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Croom Jana T | director | Withheld for tax | 9,838 | 47,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Hass Douglas | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,751 | 29,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thomson Kathy R | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,743 | 42,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | DeLorenzo Jessica L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,498 | 35,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Regrut Andrew Donald | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,153 | 8,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Baumann Adam M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,533 | 9,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Phillips Richard D | director | Award / grant | 36,277 | 77,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Phillips Richard D | director | Option exercise | 40,953 | 51,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Phillips Richard D | director | Award / grant | 58,206 | 109,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Baumann Adam M | officer | Option exercise | 2,438 | 9,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Baumann Adam M | officer | Award / grant | 1,202 | 11,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Baumann Adam M | officer | Option exercise | 2,438 | 3,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Baumann Adam M | officer | Award / grant | 3,849 | 7,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | DeLorenzo Jessica L | officer | Option exercise | 6,783 | 36,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | DeLorenzo Jessica L | officer | Award / grant | 3,438 | 39,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thomson Kathy R | officer | Option exercise | 10,486 | 44,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Croom Jana T | director | Option exercise | 16,727 | 49,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Croom Jana T | director | Award / grant | 8,303 | 57,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Croom Jana T | director | Option exercise | 16,727 | 20,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Croom Jana T | director | Award / grant | 23,453 | 44,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Regrut Andrew Donald | officer | Option exercise | 1,878 | 7,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Regrut Andrew Donald | officer | Award / grant | 3,623 | 10,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Regrut Andrew Donald | officer | Option exercise | 1,878 | 3,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Regrut Andrew Donald | officer | Award / grant | 4,104 | 7,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Phillips Richard D | director | Option exercise | 40,953 | 40,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Hass Douglas | officer | Award / grant | 13,831 | 32,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thomson Kathy R | officer | Award / grant | 3,874 | 48,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thomson Kathy R | officer | Option exercise | 10,486 | 13,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thomson Kathy R | officer | Award / grant | 13,531 | 27,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Korn Steven T | officer | Option exercise | 25,153 | 136,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Korn Steven T | officer | Award / grant | 20,065 | 156,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Korn Steven T | officer | Option exercise | 25,153 | 36,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Korn Steven T | officer | Award / grant | 23,679 | 60,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | DeLorenzo Jessica L | officer | Option exercise | 6,783 | 8,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | DeLorenzo Jessica L | officer | Award / grant | 8,219 | 16,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Hass Douglas | officer | Option exercise | 12,132 | 32,379 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.