KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholicas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.80 · now $31.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KDP has typically landed between $29.23 and $34.90 — a range of −8.1% to +9.8% from the issuance price $31.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,605 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-04-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KDP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.23worst · -8.1%$34.9best · +9.8%
  • now $31.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.9 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.7–$33.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.23–$34.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,605 windows spanning 2008-04-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-11-04−40.8%−40.8%+0.0%
2008-11-05−35.6%−38.7%+1.4%
2008-11-07−35.3%−39.2%+0.5%
3 best
2009-03-05+52.8%−1.5%+52.8%
2009-03-06+51.3%−2.5%+51.3%
2009-03-09+50.5%+0.0%+55.2%

4,605 overlapping windows · 2008-04-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$40.4B
market cap
$1.35
EPS (TTM)
22.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$16.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.63
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $31.80$25.93$55.94
  • DCF (intrinsic)$53.87
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$33.00
  • Analyst target · range $28.00–$39.00$37.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$31.80

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.8%
n=18
Feb
44%
+0.0%
n=18
Mar
83%
+5.7%
n=18
Apr
72%
+2.9%
n=18
May
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.5%
n=19
Aug
37%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
68%
+1.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Dec
72%
+3.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$252026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $388K — DeNooyer Mary Beth2026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $391K — DeNooyer Mary Beth2026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $311K — Stephens Angela A.2026-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Alt Aaron E2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $295K — Stephens Angela A.2025-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $254K — Gorli Eric2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $273K — Gamgort Robert James2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $7.1M2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $254K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $295K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer DeNooyer Mary Beth — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DeNooyer Mary Beth — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Stephens Angela A. — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Alt Aaron E — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Stephens Angela A. — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gorli Eric — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Gamgort Robert James — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $32.30$388K−14.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open72,171Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $32.55$391K−12.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open84,171Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-03Stephens Angela A.officerSale9,500 @ $32.70$311K−14.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open55,786Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25Alt Aaron EdirectorPurchase7,862 @ $31.83$250Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,862Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-12Stephens Angela A.officerSale10,000 @ $29.52$295K−15.6% of holding−5.5%−0.4%54,200Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-11Gorli EricofficerPurchase9,175 @ $27.69$254K+12.9% of holding−5.2%−0.2%80,432Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale7,601 @ $35.91$273K−0.3% of holding−27.2%−23.3%2,284,568Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-01Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale208,000 @ $32.90$6.8M−8.3% of holding−16.2%−28.7%2,292,169Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-29Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale208,000 @ $33.18$6.9M−7.7% of holding−14.0%−29.8%2,500,169Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-17DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $33.66$404K−12.7% of holding+0.2%−27.1%82,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale11,889 @ $33.64$400K−11.2% of holding−5.1%−27.3%94,622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale111 @ $34.05$4K−0.1% of holding−5.1%−27.3%94,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $33.64$404K−10.1% of holding−4.5%−29.1%106,511Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-04Van de Ven Michael GdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $33.20$498Kownership Δ n/a−0.7%−27.7%15,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $32.92$395K−9.2% of holding−1.5%−27.9%118,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale208,000 @ $33.10$6.9M−7.3% of holding−2.5%−29.3%2,638,490Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-22DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $33.21$399K−8.4% of holding−2.7%−28.8%130,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Stephens Angela A.officerSale14,500 @ $34.24$496K−18.9% of holding−10.5%−41.7%62,411Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $34.11$409K−7.8% of holding−10.7%−42.7%142,511Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale208,000 @ $34.12$7.1M−6.8% of holding−8.5%−39.8%2,846,490Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale208,000 @ $33.96$7.1M−6.4% of holding−8.7%−39.0%3,054,490Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-17DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $35.59$427K−7.2% of holding−17.4%−46.5%154,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $34.78$417K−6.7% of holding−2.2%−45.4%166,511Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-20DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $33.39$401K−6.3% of holding+15.2%−36.2%178,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorSale416,000 @ $34.29$14.3M−11.4% of holding+7.1%−24.5%3,237,066Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04DeNooyer Mary BethofficerSale12,000 @ $34.05$409K−6.0% of holding+7.1%−24.5%187,537Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Stephens Angela A.officerSale7,350 @ $34.17$251K−9.0% of holding+6.7%−24.5%74,587Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26JAB BevCo B.V.tenPercentOwnerSale83,950,000 @ $32.65$2.7B−38.5% of holding+5.9%−20.1%134,113,479Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-29JAB BevCo B.V.tenPercentOwnerPurchase3,619,600 @ $33.34$120.7M+1.7% of holding+6.5%−1.7%218,063,479Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

247 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Shoemaker AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax23,833177,014Form 4
2026-09-14Gorli EricofficerWithheld for tax1,306100,304Form 4
2026-09-14Shoemaker AnthonyofficerOption exercise59,781200,062Form 4
2026-09-14Gorli EricofficerOption exercise3,3173,316Form 4
2026-09-14Shoemaker AnthonyofficerOption exercise7850Form 4
2026-09-14Sandler Debra A.directorOption exercise2,2852,285Form 4
2026-09-14Sandler Debra A.directorOption exercise2,2850Form 4
2026-09-14Shoemaker AnthonyofficerOption exercise59,7810Form 4
2026-09-14Gorli EricofficerOption exercise3,317101,610Form 4
2026-09-14Shoemaker AnthonyofficerOption exercise785200,847Form 4
2026-06-01Stephens Angela A.officerWithheld for tax1,16165,286Form 4
2026-06-01Stephens Angela A.officerOption exercise2,95066,447Form 4
2026-06-01Stephens Angela A.officerOption exercise2,9508,850Form 4
2026-05-20Cofer Timothy P.directorWithheld for tax34,67053,436Form 4
2026-05-20Cofer Timothy P.directorOption exercise88,10688,106Form 4
2026-05-20Cofer Timothy P.directorOption exercise88,10666,079Form 4
2026-04-27OLIVEIRA RAFAELofficerAward / grant177,620177,620Form 4
2026-03-05Cofer Timothy P.directorWithheld for tax12,187458,852Form 4
2026-03-05Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorWithheld for tax5,5401,951,412Form 4
2026-03-05DeNooyer Mary BethofficerWithheld for tax3,40496,171Form 4
2026-03-05Johnson Roger FrederickofficerWithheld for tax2,659135,381Form 4
2026-03-05Shoemaker AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax2,659140,281Form 4
2026-03-05Gorli EricofficerWithheld for tax2,65998,293Form 4
2026-03-05Lemire OlivierofficerWithheld for tax1,23942,626Form 4
2026-03-05Stephens Angela A.officerWithheld for tax90063,497Form 4
2026-03-05Gorli EricofficerOption exercise6,75720,271Form 4
2026-03-05Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorOption exercise14,0771,956,952Form 4
2026-03-05Gamgort Robert JamesdirectorOption exercise14,07742,230Form 4
2026-03-05Johnson Roger FrederickofficerOption exercise6,757138,040Form 4
2026-03-05Gorli EricofficerOption exercise6,757100,952Form 4
2026-03-05Cofer Timothy P.directorOption exercise30,969471,039Form 4
2026-03-05Cofer Timothy P.directorOption exercise30,96992,905Form 4
2026-03-05Lemire OlivierofficerOption exercise2,3947,179Form 4
2026-03-05DeNooyer Mary BethofficerOption exercise6,75799,575Form 4
2026-03-05DeNooyer Mary BethofficerOption exercise6,75720,271Form 4
2026-03-05Lemire OlivierofficerOption exercise2,39443,865Form 4
2026-03-05Shoemaker AnthonyofficerOption exercise6,75720,271Form 4
2026-03-05Shoemaker AnthonyofficerOption exercise6,757142,940Form 4
2026-03-05Stephens Angela A.officerOption exercise2,3947,179Form 4
2026-03-05Stephens Angela A.officerOption exercise2,39464,397Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-11$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-05-312025-05-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.