KBRKBR, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.60 · now $36.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KBR has typically landed between $32.10 and $40.92 — a range of −12.3% to +11.8% from the issuance price $36.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KBR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$32.1worst · -12.3%$40.92best · +11.8%
  • now $36.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.66 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.86–$38.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.1–$40.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−56.4%−56.4%+3.7%
2020-02-19−54.5%−57.2%+1.7%
2020-02-13−54.5%−54.5%+1.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+51.7%+0.0%+60.4%
2020-03-18+50.9%+0.0%+70.0%
2020-05-13+42.5%+0.0%+54.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−1.1%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.1%
n=19
May
53%
+2.8%
n=19
Jun
37%
−0.8%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.2%
n=19
Sep
42%
−3.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.7%
n=18
Nov
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$51$302026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $126K — MOORE JACK B2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $471K — Sabater Carlos A.2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $92K — Von Thaer Lewis2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $256K — Evans Shad E.2026-05: 4 open-market purchases, $945K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MOORE JACK B — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sabater Carlos A. — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Von Thaer Lewis — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Evans Shad E. — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20MOORE JACK BdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $31.44$126K+7.9% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open54,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Sabater Carlos A.directorPurchase14,500 @ $32.47$471K+68.4% of holding+1.5%not yet — horizon still open35,705Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14Von Thaer LewisdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $30.77$92K+40.8% of holding+12.4%not yet — horizon still open10,358Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13Evans Shad E.officerPurchase8,375 @ $30.60$256K+23.7% of holding+17.6%not yet — horizon still open43,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-18Bradie StuartdirectorSale20,000 @ $52.81$1.1M−2.4% of holding−18.4%−31.2%802,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Conlon Gregory SeanofficerSale19,000 @ $50.59$961K−23.0% of holding+3.8%−21.2%63,533Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

146 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Taylor Jennefer ThaiofficerWithheld for tax584,263Form 4
2026-07-15Dugle Lynn AdirectorAward / grant5128,232Form 4
2026-07-15Dominguez JosephdirectorAward / grant3413,479Form 4
2026-07-15Vigeveno Huibert HansdirectorAward / grant3410,813Form 4
2026-05-08Kavanaugh MarkofficerWithheld for tax8111,840Form 4
2026-05-08Hill Douglas SofficerWithheld for tax638,882Form 4
2026-04-15Dugle Lynn AdirectorAward / grant10528,281Form 4
2026-04-15Vigeveno Huibert HansdirectorAward / grant3310,779Form 4
2026-04-15Dominguez JosephdirectorAward / grant3313,445Form 4
2026-03-02Etta NchachadirectorAward / grant4,21210,449Form 4
2026-03-02Sabater Carlos A.directorAward / grant4,21221,205Form 4
2026-03-02Von Thaer LewisdirectorAward / grant4,2127,358Form 4
2026-03-02Dominguez JosephdirectorAward / grant7,22113,412Form 4
2026-03-02Dugle Lynn AdirectorAward / grant4,21228,176Form 4
2026-03-02Hill Douglas SofficerAward / grant3,8528,945Form 4
2026-03-02GALINDO SONIAofficerAward / grant7,38138,756Form 4
2026-03-02Conlon Gregory SeanofficerAward / grant5,13571,250Form 4
2026-03-02Ibrahim JalalofficerAward / grant8,665127,164Form 4
2026-03-02Myles JenniferofficerAward / grant6,09853,188Form 4
2026-03-02Evans Shad E.officerAward / grant8,02435,350Form 4
2026-03-02Bradie StuartdirectorAward / grant54,553858,102Form 4
2026-03-02Kavanaugh MarkofficerAward / grant3,85211,921Form 4
2026-03-02Taylor Jennefer ThaiofficerAward / grant1,2844,321Form 4
2026-03-02SOPP MARK WofficerAward / grant11,874200,609Form 4
2026-03-02MOORE JACK BdirectorAward / grant4,21250,159Form 4
2026-03-02Vigeveno Huibert HansdirectorAward / grant7,22110,746Form 4
2026-03-02Pickard Ann DarlenedirectorAward / grant4,21258,926Form 4
2026-03-02Manzoni John Alexander KCBdirectorAward / grant4,21217,546Form 4
2026-03-02Masiello Wendy MotlongdirectorAward / grant4,21249,703Form 4
2026-02-27Bradie StuartdirectorWithheld for tax9,205803,549Form 4
2026-02-27SOPP MARK WofficerWithheld for tax1,675188,735Form 4
2026-02-27Ibrahim JalalofficerWithheld for tax1,223118,499Form 4
2026-02-27Myles JenniferofficerWithheld for tax1,02947,090Form 4
2026-02-27GALINDO SONIAofficerWithheld for tax87731,375Form 4
2026-02-27Evans Shad E.officerWithheld for tax31427,326Form 4
2026-02-27Kavanaugh MarkofficerWithheld for tax2958,069Form 4
2026-02-27Hill Douglas SofficerWithheld for tax2235,093Form 4
2026-02-27Taylor Jennefer ThaiofficerWithheld for tax353,037Form 4
2026-02-26Bradie StuartdirectorWithheld for tax11,032812,754Form 4
2026-02-26SOPP MARK WofficerWithheld for tax2,035190,410Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-04-192023-03-16$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-04-192023-03-16$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-02-152023-01-10$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-02-152023-01-10$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-06-142022-05-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-06-142022-05-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2022-03-172022-02-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2022-03-172022-02-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-02-232022-01-28$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-02-232022-01-28$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-01-272021-12-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-01-272021-12-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.