KBH · TickerCove

KBHKB Homeas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.67 · now $48.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KBH has typically landed between $41.82 and $56.62 — a range of −14.1% to +16.3% from the issuance price $48.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$48.67 · 16% of range

$45.04 low$67.08 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 13.7%

−14.1%worst (p90)+16.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

7 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 3 sells · 3 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where KBH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $48.67 (+0.0%)
typical $49.03 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $45.71–$52.36
90% range $41.82–$56.62

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−72.1%	−72.1%	+1.0%
2020-02-21	−71.5%	−72.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−69.8%	−72.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+91.7%	+0.0%	+104.2%
2009-03-05	+81.3%	+0.0%	+85.0%
2020-03-23	+81.1%	+0.0%	+98.8%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+4.8%

n=18

Feb

47%

+0.5%

n=19

Mar

63%

+1.4%

n=19

Apr

53%

+3.6%

n=19

May

37%

−1.5%

n=19

Jun

53%

+1.0%

n=19

Jul

58%

+1.3%

n=19

Aug

53%

+0.6%

n=19

Sep

47%

+0.5%

n=19

Oct

39%

−1.9%

n=18

Nov

72%

+3.7%

n=18

Dec

50%

+0.6%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	Collins Arthur Reginald	director	Sale	4,000 @ $56.96	$228K	−30.4% of holding	−13.6%	not yet — horizon still open	9,157	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05	PRAW ALBERT Z	officer	Sale	22,015 @ $58.70	$1.3M	−17.5% of holding	−13.6%	not yet — horizon still open	104,062	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Sale	30,008 @ $56.70	$1.7M	−1.6% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,894,234	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-15	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Sale	21,010 @ $56.24	$1.2M	−1.1% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,924,242	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-14	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Sale	89,858 @ $54.87	$4.9M	−4.4% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,933,438	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Sale	39,204 @ $55.45	$2.2M	−2.0% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,894,234	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-13	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Sale	82,047 @ $54.95	$4.5M	−4.1% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	1,907,059	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13	McGibney Robert V.	director	Sale	20,621 @ $55.31	$1.1M	−9.9% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	188,705	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Sale	12,825 @ $55.81	$716K	−0.7% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	1,894,234	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04	PRAW ALBERT Z	officer	Sale	20,284 @ $60.08	$1.2M	−16.3% of holding	+4.5%	−27.1%	104,062	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-15	McGibney Robert V.	director	Sale	14,000 @ $53.52	$749K	−15.2% of holding	+15.6%	+5.5%	78,345	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	Collins Arthur Reginald	director	Sale	5,000 @ $54.38	$272K	−32.8% of holding	−8.6%	−3.5%	10,262	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-28	Kaminski Jeff	officer	Sale	26,472 @ $68.75	$1.8M	−42.7% of holding	−7.2%	−24.2%	35,501	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28	Kaminski Jeff	officer	Sale	1,028 @ $69.41	$71K	−2.9% of holding	−7.2%	−24.2%	34,473	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-15	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Option exercise	51,018	1,945,252	Form 4
2026-07-15	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Option exercise	51,018	0	Form 4
2026-07-14	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Option exercise	129,062	2,023,296	Form 4
2026-07-14	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Option exercise	129,062	51,018	Form 4
2026-07-13	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Option exercise	94,872	1,989,106	Form 4
2026-07-13	McGibney Robert V.	director	Option exercise	20,621	209,326	Form 4
2026-07-13	McGibney Robert V.	director	Option exercise	20,621	0	Form 4
2026-07-13	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Option exercise	94,872	180,080	Form 4
2026-04-23	Eltife Kevin Paul	director	Award / grant	2,895	23,326	Form 4
2026-04-23	McGibney Robert V.	director	Award / grant	53,438	188,705	Form 4
2026-04-23	Barra Jose Miguel	director	Award / grant	5,077	17,143	Form 4
2026-04-23	Gabriel Stuart A	director	Award / grant	2,895	44,020	Form 4
2026-04-23	Gilligan Thomas W.	director	Award / grant	2,895	54,256	Form 4
2026-04-23	HENRY CHERYL JANET	director	Award / grant	2,895	7,057	Form 4
2026-04-23	Collins Arthur Reginald	director	Award / grant	2,895	13,157	Form 4
2026-04-23	Dominguez Dorene	director	Award / grant	2,895	30,201	Form 4
2026-04-23	Kozlak Jodee A	director	Award / grant	3,269	30,597	Form 4
2026-04-17	Dillard Robert R	officer	Withheld for tax	2,297	17,057	Form 4
2026-02-20	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Withheld for tax	106,699	1,894,234	Form 4
2026-02-20	McGibney Robert V.	director	Withheld for tax	42,680	135,267	Form 4
2026-02-20	PRAW ALBERT Z	officer	Withheld for tax	22,805	126,077	Form 4
2026-02-20	Woram Brian J	officer	Withheld for tax	21,538	214,569	Form 4
2026-02-20	HOLLINGER WILLIAM R	officer	Withheld for tax	13,303	146,946	Form 4
2026-02-20	PRAW ALBERT Z	officer	Award / grant	44,820	148,882	Form 4
2026-02-20	Woram Brian J	officer	Award / grant	42,330	236,107	Form 4
2026-02-20	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Award / grant	249,005	2,000,933	Form 4
2026-02-20	HOLLINGER WILLIAM R	officer	Award / grant	26,145	160,249	Form 4
2026-02-20	McGibney Robert V.	director	Award / grant	99,602	177,947	Form 4
2026-01-25	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Withheld for tax	3,164	1,751,928	Form 4
2026-01-25	Woram Brian J	officer	Withheld for tax	172	193,777	Form 4
2026-01-19	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Withheld for tax	8,644	1,755,092	Form 4
2026-01-19	Woram Brian J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,052	193,949	Form 4
2026-01-19	HOLLINGER WILLIAM R	officer	Withheld for tax	318	134,104	Form 4
2026-01-18	MEZGER JEFFREY T	director	Withheld for tax	4,038	1,763,736	Form 4
2026-01-18	Woram Brian J	officer	Withheld for tax	97	195,001	Form 4
2025-07-15	McGibney Robert V.	director	Option exercise	14,000	92,345	Form 4
2025-07-15	McGibney Robert V.	director	Option exercise	14,000	0	Form 4
2025-04-17	HENRY CHERYL JANET	director	Award / grant	3,144	4,162	Form 4
2025-04-17	Gabriel Stuart A	director	Award / grant	3,144	41,125	Form 4
2025-04-17	Gilligan Thomas W.	director	Award / grant	3,144	51,361	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-08-13	2025-06-17	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-08-13	2025-06-09	$1–15K
Susie Lee	House	sale	2022-11-14	2022-10-27	$1–15K
Susan A. Davis	House	sale	2016-12-29	2016-11-30	$15–50K
Susan A. Davis	House	purchase	2016-05-19	2016-04-29	$15–50K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i