Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.05 · now $13.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KBDC has typically landed between $12.14 and $13.95 — a range of −7.0% to +6.9% from the issuance price $13.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
560 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-05-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KBDC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.11 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.75–$13.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.14–$13.95
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-09-02 | −10.3% | −10.3% | +1.2% |
| 2025-08-29 | −9.5% | −10.2% | +0.7% |
| 2025-08-28 | −9.4% | −9.4% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-16 | +10.1% | −0.3% | +10.1% |
| 2025-09-29 | +10.1% | −0.5% | +10.1% |
| 2026-03-27 | +10.0% | +0.0% | +10.5% |
560 overlapping windows · 2024-05-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | ROBO JAMES L | director | Purchase | 340,000 @ $13.04 | $4.4M | +566.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 400,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | ROBO JAMES L | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $13.02 | $781K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MARUCCI GEORGE E JR | director | Purchase | 9,000 @ $13.74 | $124K | +900.0% of holding | +7.1% | −10.7% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | MARUCCI GEORGE E JR | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $13.96 | $14K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.5% | −8.9% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Smith Rhonda Scott | director | Purchase | 365 @ $13.68 | $5K | +29.2% of holding | +6.5% | +11.4% | 1,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | ROBO JAMES L | director | Purchase | 43,020 @ $15.84 | $681K | +2.7% of holding | −5.4% | −13.0% | 1,616,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 43,020 @ $15.84 | $681K | −100.0% of holding | −5.4% | −13.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.76 | $158K | −6.6% of holding | −4.2% | −14.0% | 141,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.71 | $79K | −3.9% of holding | −4.2% | −14.0% | 121,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.65 | $78K | −3.5% of holding | −4.2% | −14.0% | 136,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.63 | $78K | −3.7% of holding | −4.2% | −14.0% | 131,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.57 | $78K | −3.8% of holding | −4.2% | −14.0% | 126,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-22 | Rabil Albert | director | Sale | 314,465 @ $15.90 | $5.0M | −67.5% of holding | −4.7% | −14.5% | 151,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | SCHNABEL SUSAN C | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.40 | $82K | +61.6% of holding | +10.6% | −13.2% | 13,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | SCHNABEL SUSAN C | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.54 | $41K | +44.7% of holding | +0.3% | −2.9% | 8,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.