KARDKardigan, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $14.79 · now $14.79 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, KARD has typically landed between $11.41 and $16.62 — a range of −22.9% to +12.4% from the issuance price $14.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

48 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-06-18 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($14.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KARD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $14.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.41worst · -22.9%$16.62best · +12.4%
  • now $14.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.84 (-6.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.88–$14.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.41–$16.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 48 windows spanning 2026-06-18 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-08-25−31.2%−31.2%+4.8%
2026-08-26−30.2%−32.1%+3.5%
2026-08-24−29.7%−29.7%+6.2%
3 best
2026-08-04+7.0%−4.3%+7.7%
2026-07-29+5.4%+0.0%+11.8%
2026-08-07+5.4%−4.4%+7.6%

48 overlapping windows · 2026-06-18 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Efficacy and Safety of Tonlamarsen in Participants With a Recent Hospitalization and a Concurrent Episode of Acute Severe Hypertension (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Danicamtiv in Participants With Symptomatic Genetic and Familial Dilated Cardiomyopathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2028-08-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Ataciguat for Slowing the Progression of Moderate Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis: A Randomized, Placebo Controlled Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$26$142026-06-22: 3 insider purchases, $90.0M — HRTG GPE, LLC, BERNS PAUL L, ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLC2026-06: 3 open-market purchases, $90.0M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner HRTG GPE, LLC — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BERNS PAUL L — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLC — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-22HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,125,000 @ $16.00$50.0M+26.6% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open14,866,868Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22BERNS PAUL LdirectorPurchase1,250,000 @ $16.00$20.0M+9.1% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open15,042,035Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorPurchase1,250,000 @ $16.00$20.0M+9.1% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open15,042,035Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-17Edelberg JayofficerAward / grant47,784183,327Form 4
2026-06-17Meeker David PdirectorAward / grant20,70620,706Form 4
2026-06-17Pasternak AndydirectorAward / grant79,64079,640Form 4
2026-06-17Jahn BrianneofficerAward / grant79,64079,640Form 4
2026-06-17Giordano Douglas E.directorAward / grant20,70620,706Form 4
2026-06-17Walbert Timothy PdirectorAward / grant20,70620,706Form 4
2026-06-17Walbert Timothy PdirectorAward / grant57,57357,573Form 4
2026-06-17Popovits Kimberly JdirectorAward / grant20,70620,706Form 4
2026-06-17PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLCdirectorAward / grant20,70620,706Form 4
2026-06-17Moriarty John BofficerAward / grant47,78447,784Form 4
2026-06-17BERNS PAUL LdirectorAward / grant20,70620,706Form 4
2026-06-17BERNS PAUL LdirectorConversion5,148,5870Form 4
2026-06-17BERNS PAUL LdirectorConversion1,204,0000Form 4
2026-06-17BERNS PAUL LdirectorConversion2,306,4010Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion13,792,03513,792,035Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion5,148,5870Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion1,204,0000Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion2,306,4010Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion13,792,03513,792,035Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion5,148,5870Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion1,204,0000Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion2,306,4010Form 4
2026-06-17Edelberg JayofficerConversion97,587135,543Form 4
2026-06-17Edelberg JayofficerConversion61,2680Form 4
2026-06-17GIANAKAKOS ANASTASIOSdirectorConversion28,7025,665,090Form 4
2026-06-17GIANAKAKOS ANASTASIOSdirectorConversion41,0012,422,520Form 4
2026-06-17GIANAKAKOS ANASTASIOSdirectorConversion498,692498,692Form 4
2026-06-17GIANAKAKOS ANASTASIOSdirectorConversion18,0200Form 4
2026-06-17GIANAKAKOS ANASTASIOSdirectorConversion25,7420Form 4
2026-06-17GIANAKAKOS ANASTASIOSdirectorConversion313,0920Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion13,792,03513,792,035Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion5,148,5870Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion1,204,0000Form 4
2026-06-17ARCH Venture Partners XIII, LLCdirectorConversion2,306,4010Form 4
2026-06-17HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion2,050,1662,050,166Form 4
2026-06-17HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion6,150,5026,150,502Form 4
2026-06-17HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion3,242,9939,393,495Form 4
2026-06-17HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion2,348,37311,741,868Form 4
2026-06-17HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion1,287,1460Form 4
2026-06-17HRTG GPE, LLCtenPercentOwnerConversion3,861,4400Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.