KALUKaiser Aluminum CorporationBasic Materials · Aluminumas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $152.38 · now $152.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KALU has typically landed between $124.74 and $185.17 — a range of −18.1% to +21.5% from the issuance price $152.38.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($152.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KALU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $152.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$124.74worst · -18.1%$185.17best · +21.5%
  • now $152.38 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $154.16 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $141.09–$167.23
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $124.74–$185.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-11-04−50.2%−57.7%+0.0%
2008-09-18−49.7%−49.7%+2.3%
2008-09-16−48.7%−48.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-17+64.1%+0.0%+64.1%
2009-03-05+63.7%−0.2%+63.7%
2009-03-12+63.5%+0.0%+63.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
70%
+6.0%
n=20
May
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.1%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+3.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$195$722026-04-29: 2 insider sales, $786K — Harvey Keith, Grimley Richard P.2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $866K — West Neal E2026-04-27: 4 insider sales, $11.4M — Harvey Keith, Wilcox Brett, DONNAN JOHN MALCOLM, Gheorghe Iulian2026-02-23: 2 insider sales, $2.9M — DONNAN JOHN MALCOLM, West Neal E2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $813K — Tiffany Blain2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $813K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-04: 7 open-market sales, $13.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Harvey Keith — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Grimley Richard P. — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Neal E — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Harvey Keith — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Wilcox Brett — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DONNAN JOHN MALCOLM — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gheorghe Iulian — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DONNAN JOHN MALCOLM — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Neal E — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tiffany Blain — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-29Harvey KeithdirectorSale3,031 @ $173.13$525K−3.1% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open94,308Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-29Grimley Richard P.directorSale1,524 @ $171.52$261K−25.0% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open4,578Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28West Neal EofficerSale5,000 @ $173.29$866K−20.8% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open19,091Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27Harvey KeithdirectorSale47,001 @ $175.09$8.2M−32.6% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open97,339Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Wilcox BrettdirectorSale15,000 @ $174.44$2.6M−60.3% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open9,887Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerSale2,743 @ $178.20$489K−8.5% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open29,700Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Gheorghe IulianofficerSale175 @ $174.22$30K−3.8% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open4,448Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerSale18,461 @ $125.08$2.3M−45.4% of holding−5.4%+9.8%22,205Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23West Neal EofficerSale5,000 @ $121.72$609K−28.1% of holding−5.4%+9.8%12,775Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Tiffany BlainofficerSale8,656 @ $93.92$813K−24.8% of holding+8.1%+77.9%26,275Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-04STEBBINS DONALD JdirectorAward / grant63115,407Form 4
2026-06-04HOFFMAN JAMES DONALDdirectorAward / grant5893,760Form 4
2026-06-04MINOR GLENDA JdirectorAward / grant3354,516Form 4
2026-06-04Wilcox BrettdirectorAward / grant3283,019Form 4
2026-06-04MINOR GLENDA JdirectorAward / grant7864,181Form 4
2026-06-04Wilcox BrettdirectorAward / grant7862,691Form 4
2026-06-04STEBBINS DONALD JdirectorAward / grant78614,776Form 4
2026-06-04arnold michael cdirectorAward / grant78611,445Form 4
2026-06-04Foster David AdirectorAward / grant78624,332Form 4
2026-06-04Glas Kimberly ThompsondirectorAward / grant7863,466Form 4
2026-06-04Grimley Richard P.directorAward / grant7865,364Form 4
2026-06-04HOFFMAN JAMES DONALDdirectorAward / grant7863,171Form 4
2026-04-28DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerGift1,50028,200Form 4
2026-03-05Harvey KeithdirectorWithheld for tax17,722151,199Form 4
2026-03-05Harvey KeithdirectorWithheld for tax6,859144,340Form 4
2026-03-05West Neal EofficerWithheld for tax3,69431,467Form 4
2026-03-05DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerWithheld for tax3,44134,112Form 4
2026-03-05West Neal EofficerWithheld for tax1,76129,706Form 4
2026-03-05DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerWithheld for tax1,66932,443Form 4
2026-03-05Narayan VijaiofficerWithheld for tax4827,614Form 4
2026-03-05Gheorghe IulianofficerWithheld for tax2164,623Form 4
2026-03-05Narayan VijaiofficerWithheld for tax977,517Form 4
2026-03-05DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerAward / grant3,69925,904Form 4
2026-03-05DONNAN JOHN MALCOLMofficerAward / grant11,64937,553Form 4
2026-03-05Narayan VijaiofficerAward / grant7338,096Form 4
2026-03-05West Neal EofficerAward / grant3,90522,865Form 4
2026-03-05West Neal EofficerAward / grant12,29635,161Form 4
2026-03-05Robb Thomas H.officerAward / grant2,95417,898Form 4
2026-03-05Barger Hugh J. IIIofficerAward / grant1,6865,711Form 4
2026-03-05Harvey KeithdirectorAward / grant17,795121,026Form 4
2026-03-05Gheorghe IulianofficerAward / grant8524,839Form 4
2026-03-05Harvey KeithdirectorAward / grant47,895168,921Form 4
2026-02-23Robb Thomas H.officerAward / grant44014,944Form 4
2026-02-19Gheorghe IulianofficerWithheld for tax763,987Form 4
2025-11-21Harvey KeithdirectorDisposition33,000103,231Form 4
2025-11-07Narayan VijaiofficerWithheld for tax1637,363Form 4
2025-09-18HOFFMAN JAMES DONALDdirectorAward / grant1,0222,385Form 4
2025-09-18HOFFMAN JAMES DONALDdirectorAward / grant1,3631,363Form 4
2025-08-12Walsh JasonofficerWithheld for tax7,23642,770Form 4
2025-08-12Tiffany BlainofficerWithheld for tax6,98234,931Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.