KAI · TickerCove

KAIKadant Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $270.00 · now $270.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KAI has typically landed between $235.83 and $309.08 — a range of −12.7% to +14.5% from the issuance price $270.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($270.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$270 · 23% of range

$246.63 low$346.51 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 11.2%

−12.7%worst (p90)+14.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where KAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $270 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $270 (+0.0%)
typical $271 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $255.87–$286.13
90% range $235.83–$309.08

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−46.0%	−46.0%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−44.7%	−44.7%	+0.0%
2011-07-21	−42.8%	−44.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11	+76.1%	+0.0%	+76.1%
2009-03-05	+63.8%	−5.2%	+68.2%
2009-03-06	+57.0%	−4.1%	+70.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

−0.7%

n=20

Feb

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Mar

55%

+2.6%

n=20

Apr

55%

+3.0%

n=20

May

70%

+3.2%

n=20

Jun

65%

+0.5%

n=20

Jul

60%

+1.5%

n=20

Aug

45%

−0.0%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.9%

n=20

Oct

70%

+3.8%

n=20

Nov

55%

+3.4%

n=20

Dec

55%

+1.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-27	KRAUSE STACY D.	officer	Sale	1,227 @ $334.17	$410K	−47.4% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,363	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18	Blanchard Thomas Andrew	officer	Sale	1,400 @ $322.04	$451K	−71.5% of holding	−7.1%	not yet — horizon still open	557	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	Russell Erin L	director	Sale	1,435 @ $282.36	$405K	−31.9% of holding	+1.8%	+0.9%	3,066	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Sale	357 @ $267.28	$95K	−23.8% of holding	+10.7%	+12.2%	1,141	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Sale	342 @ $266.52	$91K	−18.6% of holding	+10.7%	+12.2%	1,498	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Sale	415 @ $338.41	$140K	−8.9% of holding	−12.8%	−5.8%	4,250	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18	Blanchard Thomas Andrew	officer	Sale	714 @ $343.00	$245K	−37.5% of holding	−14.9%	−13.7%	1,188	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-13	Flynn Peter J.	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $320.00	$480K	−36.4% of holding	−2.4%	−22.0%	2,619	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-04	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Option exercise	128	256	Form 4
2026-07-04	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	128	256	Form 4
2026-07-04	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Option exercise	128	256	Form 4
2026-07-04	Painter Jonathan W	director	Option exercise	128	256	Form 4
2026-07-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	128	256	Form 4
2026-07-04	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Option exercise	128	1,529	Form 4
2026-07-04	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Option exercise	128	4,770	Form 4
2026-07-04	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	128	8,091	Form 4
2026-07-04	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Option exercise	128	4,770	Form 4
2026-07-04	Painter Jonathan W	director	Option exercise	128	9,005	Form 4
2026-07-04	Painter Jonathan W	director	Option exercise	128	9,005	Form 4
2026-07-04	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	128	8,091	Form 4
2026-07-04	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Option exercise	128	1,529	Form 4
2026-07-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	128	3,454	Form 4
2026-07-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	128	3,454	Form 4
2026-07-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	128	256	Form 4
2026-06-03	Powell Jeffrey L	director	Gift	12,282	0	Form 4
2026-04-04	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	129	384	Form 4
2026-04-04	Painter Jonathan W	director	Option exercise	129	384	Form 4
2026-04-04	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Option exercise	129	384	Form 4
2026-04-04	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Option exercise	129	384	Form 4
2026-04-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	129	384	Form 4
2026-04-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	129	3,326	Form 4
2026-04-04	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	129	7,963	Form 4
2026-04-04	Painter Jonathan W	director	Option exercise	129	8,877	Form 4
2026-04-04	Painter Jonathan W	director	Option exercise	129	8,877	Form 4
2026-04-04	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Option exercise	129	4,642	Form 4
2026-04-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	129	3,326	Form 4
2026-04-04	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Option exercise	129	1,401	Form 4
2026-04-04	Russell Erin L	director	Option exercise	129	384	Form 4
2026-04-04	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Option exercise	129	7,963	Form 4
2026-04-04	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Option exercise	129	1,401	Form 4
2026-04-04	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Option exercise	129	4,642	Form 4
2026-03-11	O'Mara Rebecca Martinez	director	Award / grant	513	513	Form 4
2026-03-11	Russell Erin L	director	Award / grant	513	513	Form 4
2026-03-11	ALBERTINE JOHN M	director	Award / grant	513	513	Form 4
2026-03-11	LEONARD THOMAS C	director	Award / grant	513	513	Form 4
2026-03-11	Painter Jonathan W	director	Award / grant	513	513	Form 4
2026-03-11	Powell Jeffrey L	director	Gift	48,667	12,282	Form 4
2026-03-10	Powell Jeffrey L	director	Withheld for tax	2,059	57,193	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i