Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.86 · now $3.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JRVR has typically landed between $2.93 and $4.47 — a range of −24.1% to +15.8% from the issuance price $3.86.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,935 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-12-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JRVR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.86 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.79 (-1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.52–$4.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.93–$4.47
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-17 | −43.4% | −43.4% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-18 | −42.9% | −42.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-11 | −39.7% | −39.7% | +5.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-14 | +44.1% | +0.0% | +44.1% |
| 2020-05-13 | +42.5% | −0.1% | +43.4% |
| 2020-05-15 | +40.4% | +0.0% | +40.4% |
2,935 overlapping windows · 2014-12-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-02 | Sutherland Todd Randell | officer | Purchase | 17,000 @ $5.87 | $100K | +228.0% of holding | −10.7% | −16.3% | 24,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Migliorato Peter B. | director | Purchase | 18,500 @ $5.46 | $101K | +89.4% of holding | +6.8% | −6.7% | 39,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | LaSala Christine | director | Purchase | 29,125 @ $5.23 | $152K | +92.1% of holding | +9.2% | −9.0% | 60,758 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $4.75 | $475K | +31.6% of holding | +24.3% | +3.8% | 416,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Basu Rajiv | director | Award / grant | 18,632 | 18,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sutherland Todd Randell | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,310 | 90,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Sutherland Todd Randell | officer | Withheld for tax | 937 | 95,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Withheld for tax | 14,128 | 546,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Hoffmann Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,939 | 120,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Doran Sarah C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,741 | 208,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | McCoy James Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,517 | 67,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Miller Jeanette L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,126 | 84,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Brown Thomas Lynn | director | Award / grant | 14,409 | 44,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | LaSala Christine | director | Award / grant | 21,613 | 82,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Crow Michael E | officer | Award / grant | 41,686 | 101,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Award / grant | 143,461 | 560,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Doran Sarah C. | officer | Award / grant | 42,446 | 216,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Cavaness Joel D | director | Award / grant | 14,409 | 19,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sutherland Todd Randell | officer | Award / grant | 28,818 | 96,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | McCoy James Paul | officer | Award / grant | 18,912 | 72,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Migliorato Peter B. | director | Award / grant | 14,409 | 53,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Miller Jeanette L | officer | Award / grant | 26,714 | 88,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Gould Kirstin | director | Award / grant | 14,409 | 44,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hoffmann Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 32,799 | 129,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Langwell Dennis J. | director | Award / grant | 14,409 | 35,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Withheld for tax | 4,793 | 417,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Doran Sarah C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,728 | 174,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hoffmann Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,853 | 96,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Miller Jeanette L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,054 | 61,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Award / grant | 13,597 | 421,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Doran Sarah C. | officer | Award / grant | 8,085 | 177,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Hoffmann Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 6,247 | 98,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Miller Jeanette L | officer | Award / grant | 3,122 | 62,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Withheld for tax | 6,030 | 408,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Hoffmann Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,357 | 92,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Doran Sarah C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,283 | 169,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | D'Orazio Frank | director | Withheld for tax | 2,332 | 414,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | McCoy James Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,771 | 53,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Miller Jeanette L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,550 | 59,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Hoffmann Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,274 | 95,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Doran Sarah C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,246 | 172,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Crow Michael E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,111 | 59,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Miller Jeanette L | officer | Withheld for tax | 482 | 61,038 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-09 | McCoy James Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,130 | 55,302 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.