An article discussed whether JPMorgan Chase & Co. qualifies as a top momentum stock pick.
Read →Issued 2026-08-13 at $363.11 · now $363.11 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, JPM has typically landed between $328.40 and $402.76 — a range of −9.6% to +10.9% from the issuance price $363.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($363.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JPM has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $363.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $363.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $369.67 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $352.82–$386.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $328.4–$402.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-12-17 | −42.5% | −42.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −41.8% | −41.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-23 | −40.0% | −40.0% | +11.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +77.3% | −0.2% | +84.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +76.7% | −4.2% | +76.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +71.7% | +0.0% | +84.5% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$946.4B
market cap
$23.21
EPS (TTM)
15.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-13
next earnings
Revenue$279.7B
'20'25
Net income$57.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$100.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.60
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$730.30
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$380.23
- Analyst target · range $305.00–$420.00$370.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$363.11
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
42%
+0.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.0%
n=19
May
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Jul
89%
+5.5%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
56%
+0.7%
n=18
Oct
67%
+3.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
8 award/RSU grants excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-21 | $15–50K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Elizabeth Fletcher | House | sale | 2026-05-01 | 2026-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
What's happening · recap
claude-sonnet-5Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
Recent coverage of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on 2026-07-24 largely consists of Zacks commentary on the stock's momentum and long-term standing, along with reports on institutional investors adjusting their equity stakes, and remarks from CEO Jamie Dimon about global and fiscal risks. A separate 2026-07-23 piece compared a traditional financial-sector ETF's one-year return of 28.40% to a leveraged fund's 7.81% return over the same period.
In the news
An article examined how Wall Street analysts' published assessments of JPMorgan Chase & Co. might inform investment decisions.
Read →An article described JPMorgan Chase & Co. as included in a list of long-term stock picks maintained by Zacks' Focus List.
Read →CEO Jamie Dimon made cautious remarks in a CNBC interview about global and fiscal risks that markets may be underestimating.
Read →Decker Wealth Management LLC disclosed acquiring a new stake of 2,241 shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co., valued at about $659,000, in the first quarter per an SEC filing.
Read →Dimensional Fund Advisors LP disclosed raising its stake in JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 3.3% in the first quarter, owning 18,968,884 shares, per an SEC filing.
Read →Balefire LLC disclosed increasing its stake in JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 18.6% in the first quarter, owning 11,836 shares, per a Form 13F filing.
Read →A comparison of financial-sector ETFs noted that the traditional fund FTXO returned 28.40% over one year with lower costs versus 7.81% for the leveraged fund UYG.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.