JOUTJohnson Outdoors Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Leisureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.25 · now $44.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JOUT has typically landed between $37.82 and $51.06 — a range of −14.5% to +15.4% from the issuance price $44.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where JOUT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.82worst · -14.5%$51.06best · +15.4%
  • now $44.25 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.45 (-1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.82–$46.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.82–$51.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-30−42.2%−42.2%+0.9%
2008-10-01−41.2%−41.2%+2.5%
2008-10-14−41.2%−41.2%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-30+67.1%+0.0%+67.1%
2008-12-24+49.4%−1.0%+49.4%
2009-07-31+49.1%+0.0%+51.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
+1.7%
n=20
Feb
55%
−2.4%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.7%
n=20
May
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.1%
n=20
Jul
65%
+4.2%
n=20
Aug
40%
+2.8%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
65%
−0.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+2.2%
n=20
Dec
40%
−1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$53$362026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $299K — Stevens Edward A2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $92K — FAHEY JOHN M JR2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $50K — FAHEY JOHN M JR2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $106K — FAHEY JOHN M JR2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $78K — FAHEY JOHN M JR2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $377K — Sheahan Richard Casey2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $55K — FAHEY JOHN M JR2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $88K — Lang Edward F2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $143K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $377K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $184K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $50K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $92K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $299K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Stevens Edward A — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FAHEY JOHN M JR — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed same daydirector FAHEY JOHN M JR — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector FAHEY JOHN M JR — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector FAHEY JOHN M JR — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed same daydirector Sheahan Richard Casey — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FAHEY JOHN M JR — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same daydirector Lang Edward F — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Stevens Edward AdirectorSale6,250 @ $47.86$299K−37.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open10,640Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorSale2,000 @ $45.80$92K−9.9% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open18,103Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorSale1,140 @ $43.85$50K−5.4% of holding+5.5%not yet — horizon still open20,103Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorSale2,368 @ $44.63$106K−10.0% of holding+6.8%−12.0%21,243Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorSale1,588 @ $49.07$78K−6.3% of holding−0.5%−19.7%23,611Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23Sheahan Richard CaseydirectorSale7,580 @ $49.77$377K−56.9% of holding−1.2%−17.1%5,739Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-19FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorSale1,240 @ $44.26$55K+5.7% of holding+5.7%−2.0%22,885Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17Lang Edward FdirectorSale2,000 @ $43.94$88K−5.9% of holding+0.9%−6.6%32,171Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Rahman AsadofficerAward / grant4,3984,398Form 4
2026-02-27Stevens Edward AdirectorAward / grant2,31416,890Form 4
2026-02-27Stutz Jeffrey MdirectorAward / grant2,31410,059Form 4
2026-02-27Zipfel Liliann AnniedirectorAward / grant2,31410,992Form 4
2026-02-27FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorAward / grant2,31425,119Form 4
2026-02-27Alexander Paul GarvindirectorAward / grant2,31410,992Form 4
2026-02-27Lang Edward FdirectorAward / grant2,31434,485Form 4
2026-02-27Sheahan Richard CaseydirectorAward / grant2,3148,053Form 4
2026-02-27BELL KATHERINE BUTTONdirectorAward / grant2,31416,917Form 4
2026-02-13JOHNSON LEIPOLD HELEN PdirectorOther acquisition96,39396,393Form 4
2026-02-13JOHNSON LEIPOLD HELEN PdirectorOther acquisition96,39396,393Form 4
2026-02-13JOHNSON LEIPOLD HELEN PdirectorOther acquisition96,393908,077Form 4
2026-02-13JOHNSON LEIPOLD HELEN PdirectorOther acquisition96,393908,077Form 4
2025-12-07Johnson David WdirectorWithheld for tax79047,424Form 4
2025-12-03Johnson David WdirectorAward / grant6,41548,214Form 4
2025-12-03JOHNSON LEIPOLD HELEN PdirectorAward / grant14,052321,396Form 4
2025-02-28BELL KATHERINE BUTTONdirectorAward / grant4,06712,179Form 4
2025-02-28Lang Edward FdirectorAward / grant4,06734,171Form 4
2025-02-28Alexander Paul GarvindirectorAward / grant4,0678,678Form 4
2025-02-28Zipfel Liliann AnniedirectorAward / grant4,0678,678Form 4
2025-02-28Stutz Jeffrey MdirectorAward / grant4,0677,745Form 4
2025-02-28FAHEY JOHN M JRdirectorAward / grant4,06724,125Form 4
2025-02-28Stevens Edward AdirectorAward / grant4,06714,576Form 4
2025-02-28Sheahan Richard CaseydirectorAward / grant4,06713,319Form 4
2024-12-09Johnson David WdirectorWithheld for tax90441,799Form 4
2024-12-04Johnson David WdirectorWithheld for tax78042,703Form 4
2024-12-03Johnson David WdirectorAward / grant7,92243,483Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.