Issued 2026-09-16 at $267.28 · now $267.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JNJ has typically landed between $249.34 and $292.16 — a range of −6.7% to +9.3% from the issuance price $267.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($267.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JNJ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $267.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $267.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $269.15 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $259.64–$278.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $249.34–$292.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −25.4% | −25.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −21.5% | −21.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −19.2% | −19.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +37.7% | +0.0% | +37.7% |
| 2020-03-24 | +30.5% | +0.0% | +30.5% |
| 2020-03-25 | +29.7% | +0.0% | +30.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$634.1B
market cap
$8.63
EPS (TTM)
30.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-13
next earnings
Revenue$94.2B
'20'25
Net income$26.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$19.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr28.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr32.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.59
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$314.88
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$236.81
- Analyst target · range $220.00–$305.00$272.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$267.28
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.1%
n=19
May
58%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Oct
67%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Dec
72%
+0.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Sale | 22,527 @ $274.74 | $6.2M | −47.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Sale | 11,070 @ $274.74 | $3.0M | −30.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Taubert Jennifer L | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $263.36 | $4.0M | −7.2% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 102,315 @ $261.00 | $26.7M | −27.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 275,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 20,976 @ $262.00 | $5.5M | −5.3% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Forminard Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 9,344 @ $257.75 | $2.4M | −28.4% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Forminard Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 6,574 @ $255.93 | $1.7M | −27.9% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 41,957 @ $258.06 | $10.8M | −12.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 6,523 @ $258.74 | $1.7M | −2.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 275,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Broadhurst Vanessa | director | Sale | 23,054 @ $251.27 | $5.8M | −50.1% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Wengel Kathryn E | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $241.15 | $2.4M | −8.0% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Decker Robert J | officer | Sale | 4,075 @ $247.87 | $1.0M | −14.7% of holding | +5.2% | −4.2% | 23,682 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Sale | 1,322 @ $245.66 | $325K | −4.9% of holding | +2.3% | +0.5% | 25,447 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Sale | 13,625 @ $244.20 | $3.3M | −33.7% of holding | +1.4% | −0.4% | 26,769 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Sale | 8,998 @ $244.53 | $2.2M | −25.2% of holding | +1.4% | −0.4% | 26,769 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Wolk Joseph J | director | Sale | 33,386 @ $242.75 | $8.1M | −46.1% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 38,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | REED JOHN C | director | Sale | 29,927 @ $243.00 | $7.3M | −69.8% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 12,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Wolk Joseph J | director | Sale | 24,961 @ $242.68 | $6.1M | −64.1% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 14,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | REED JOHN C | director | Sale | 21,721 @ $243.00 | $5.3M | −62.7% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 12,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Swanson James D. | officer | Sale | 20,521 @ $242.70 | $5.0M | −44.4% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 25,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Wolk Joseph J | director | Sale | 19,241 @ $242.99 | $4.7M | −33.1% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 38,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Wolk Joseph J | director | Sale | 12,066 @ $242.87 | $2.9M | −23.6% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 38,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Broadhurst Vanessa | director | Sale | 6,197 @ $243.39 | $1.5M | −21.2% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 23,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | REED JOHN C | director | Sale | 2,283 @ $243.00 | $555K | −17.6% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 10,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Swanson James D. | officer | Sale | 22,191 @ $243.71 | $5.4M | −47.0% of holding | −0.1% | −5.0% | 25,020 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Swanson James D. | officer | Sale | 19,368 @ $243.76 | $4.7M | −43.6% of holding | −0.1% | −5.0% | 25,020 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 51,218 @ $220.99 | $11.3M | −39.1% of holding | +11.2% | +14.2% | 79,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 48,782 @ $221.48 | $10.8M | −61.3% of holding | +11.2% | +14.2% | 30,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | MORIKIS JOHN G | director | Purchase | 1,250 @ $206.15 | $258K | +208.9% of holding | −1.5% | −3.4% | 1,849 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | REED JOHN C | director | Sale | 21,721 @ $192.71 | $4.2M | −67.1% of holding | +3.1% | +11.8% | 10,658 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Taubert Jennifer L | director | Sale | 56,471 @ $177.81 | $10.0M | −24.1% of holding | +2.1% | +31.9% | 178,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Duato Joaquin | director | Sale | 125,824 @ $179.21 | $22.5M | −31.3% of holding | −3.8% | +32.9% | 275,967 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Wolk Joseph J | director | Sale | 16,820 @ $176.91 | $3.0M | −54.6% of holding | −1.9% | +32.9% | 14,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | REED JOHN C | director | Sale | 19,137 @ $163.55 | $3.1M | −64.2% of holding | +5.9% | +25.7% | 10,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
266 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | director | Award / grant | 181 | 16,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Woods Eugene A. | director | Award / grant | 136 | 6,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pinto Daniel E | director | Award / grant | 113 | 2,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 22,527 | 47,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 11,070 | 36,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 11,070 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schmid Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 22,527 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Taubert Jennifer L | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 209,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Taubert Jennifer L | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 28,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Duato Joaquin | director | Option exercise | 123,291 | 399,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Duato Joaquin | director | Option exercise | 123,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Forminard Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 9,344 | 32,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Forminard Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 9,344 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Broadhurst Vanessa | director | Option exercise | 11,925 | 46,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Broadhurst Vanessa | director | Option exercise | 11,129 | 34,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Broadhurst Vanessa | director | Option exercise | 11,129 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Broadhurst Vanessa | director | Option exercise | 11,925 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Wengel Kathryn E | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 124,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Wengel Kathryn E | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 32,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | director | Award / grant | 215 | 15,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Woods Eugene A. | director | Award / grant | 161 | 6,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Pinto Daniel E | director | Award / grant | 134 | 2,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | REED JOHN C | director | Withheld for tax | 11,002 | 24,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | REED JOHN C | director | Option exercise | 25,255 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | REED JOHN C | director | Option exercise | 25,255 | 35,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | MORIKIS JOHN G | director | Award / grant | 1,540 | 1,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Pinto Daniel E | director | Award / grant | 1,712 | 2,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beckerle Mary C | director | Award / grant | 975 | 16,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | director | Award / grant | 975 | 15,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | WEINBERGER MARK A | director | Award / grant | 975 | 12,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Doudna Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 975 | 10,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Johnson Paula A | director | Award / grant | 975 | 5,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Joly Hubert | director | Award / grant | 975 | 9,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | McClellan Mark B. | director | Award / grant | 975 | 21,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | West Nadja | director | Award / grant | 975 | 7,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Woods Eugene A. | director | Award / grant | 975 | 6,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | director | Award / grant | 206 | 14,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Woods Eugene A. | director | Award / grant | 155 | 5,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Pinto Daniel E | director | Award / grant | 129 | 462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Decker Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 4,075 | 27,757 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-29 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Lloyd Doggett | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2026-04-14 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-04-13 | 2026-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.