JHXJames Hardie Industries plcBasic Materials · Construction Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.84 · now $26.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JHX has typically landed between $22.22 and $31.55 — a range of −17.2% to +17.6% from the issuance price $26.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where JHX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.22worst · -17.2%$31.55best · +17.6%
  • now $26.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.2 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.9–$29.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.22–$31.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−53.0%−53.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−48.9%−48.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−47.1%−47.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-20+70.1%+0.0%+70.1%
2009-03-06+67.9%+0.0%+67.9%
2009-03-05+64.2%−2.2%+64.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−1.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Mar
60%
−1.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.1%
n=20
May
40%
−0.5%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.9%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.9%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.5%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Nov
55%
+3.9%
n=20
Dec
80%
+5.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$31$172026-08-25: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Skelly Jonathan …2026-08-24: 2 insider sales, $11.6M — Singh Jesse G …2026-08-21: 3 insider sales, $14.7M — Singh Jesse G …2026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $69K — Rowland Suzanne B2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $69K2026-08: 7 open-market sales, $28.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Skelly Jonathan — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Skelly Jonathan — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Singh Jesse G — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Rowland Suzanne B — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Skelly JonathanofficerSale50,000 @ $30.46$1.5M−13.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open309,906Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25Skelly JonathanofficerSale15,000 @ $30.45$457K−4.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open309,906Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24Singh Jesse GdirectorSale265,100 @ $30.23$8.0M−69.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open117,028Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24Singh Jesse GdirectorSale120,000 @ $30.08$3.6M−31.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open261,683Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21Singh Jesse GdirectorSale265,000 @ $30.19$8.0M−69.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open117,028Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-21Singh Jesse GdirectorSale118,057 @ $30.34$3.6M−23.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open381,683Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-21Singh Jesse GdirectorSale103,400 @ $30.22$3.1M−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02Rowland Suzanne BdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $22.91$69K+24.5% of holding+13.5%not yet — horizon still open15,225Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Skelly JonathanofficerOption exercise50,000359,906Form 4
2026-08-25Skelly JonathanofficerOption exercise50,000287,721Form 4
2026-08-24Singh Jesse GdirectorOption exercise265,100382,128Form 4
2026-08-24Singh Jesse GdirectorOption exercise265,1001,434,049Form 4
2026-08-21Singh Jesse GdirectorOption exercise265,000382,028Form 4
2026-08-21Singh Jesse GdirectorOption exercise265,0001,699,149Form 4
2026-08-20ERTER AARON MdirectorAward / grant60,588225,181Form 4
2026-08-20ERTER AARON MdirectorAward / grant75,49575,495Form 4
2026-08-17ERTER AARON MdirectorWithheld for tax25,217164,593Form 4
2026-08-17Kilcullen RyanofficerWithheld for tax2,14779,624Form 4
2026-08-17Beastrom TimothyofficerWithheld for tax1,38022,762Form 4
2026-08-17Hill David LawrenceofficerWithheld for tax91012,923Form 4
2026-08-17Beastrom TimothyofficerAward / grant4,50924,142Form 4
2026-08-17ERTER AARON MdirectorAward / grant59,972189,810Form 4
2026-08-17Kilcullen RyanofficerAward / grant7,32781,771Form 4
2026-07-15Hill David LawrenceofficerAward / grant3,80213,833Form 4
2026-06-16Lada RyanofficerWithheld for tax7,49570,014Form 4
2026-06-16Lada RyanofficerOption exercise7,70077,509Form 4
2026-06-16Lada RyanofficerOption exercise7,7000Form 4
2026-06-15Stein NigeldirectorAward / grant1,30141,033Form 4
2026-06-15Hendrickson Gary EdirectorAward / grant2,09925,174Form 4
2026-06-15HECKES HOWARD CdirectorAward / grant1,82427,883Form 4
2026-06-15PETERSON RENEE JdirectorAward / grant1,06941,862Form 4
2026-06-15Lada RyanofficerAward / grant14,23214,232Form 4
2026-06-15Pfeifer John CdirectorAward / grant1,0815,361Form 4
2026-06-15Rowland Suzanne BdirectorAward / grant1,07616,301Form 4
2026-06-15Lada RyanofficerAward / grant11,42269,809Form 4
2026-06-15Kilcullen RyanofficerAward / grant9,9009,900Form 4
2026-06-15Kilcullen RyanofficerAward / grant7,94574,444Form 4
2026-06-15Skelly JonathanofficerAward / grant14,23214,232Form 4
2026-06-15Skelly JonathanofficerAward / grant11,422324,906Form 4
2026-06-15Singh Jesse GdirectorAward / grant1,070117,028Form 4
2026-06-15Beastrom TimothyofficerAward / grant8,6638,663Form 4
2026-06-15Beastrom TimothyofficerAward / grant6,95219,633Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.