Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.91 · now $1.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JELD has typically landed between $1.31 and $2.48 — a range of −31.2% to +29.7% from the issuance price $1.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,401 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-01-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JELD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.86 (-2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.62–$2.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.31–$2.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,401 windows spanning 2017-01-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-14 | −67.5% | −67.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −67.2% | −67.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −64.1% | −66.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-24 | +126.4% | +0.0% | +126.4% |
| 2026-07-28 | +112.3% | +0.0% | +118.4% |
| 2026-07-23 | +109.1% | +0.0% | +109.1% |
2,401 overlapping windows · 2017-01-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+7.6%
n=9
Feb
40%
−6.6%
n=10
Mar
30%
−9.1%
n=10
Apr
70%
+4.3%
n=10
May
30%
−1.7%
n=10
Jun
60%
+0.8%
n=10
Jul
80%
+7.9%
n=10
Aug
40%
+1.5%
n=10
Sep
50%
−3.7%
n=10
Oct
33%
−6.1%
n=9
Nov
56%
+4.1%
n=9
Dec
56%
−3.3%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Sale | 1,208 @ $1.47 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,186 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Livingston Wendy A. | officer | Sale | 2,435 @ $1.44 | $4K | −1.4% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,437 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TATEN BRUCE M. | director | Sale | 19,483 @ $1.66 | $32K | −18.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 119,553 @ $4.26 | $509K | +0.9% of holding | −14.0% | −52.0% | 13,250,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,366 @ $4.26 | $48K | +0.9% of holding | −14.0% | −52.0% | 1,259,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,840 @ $4.26 | $33K | +0.9% of holding | −14.0% | −52.0% | 868,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,520 @ $4.26 | $32K | +0.9% of holding | −14.0% | −52.0% | 833,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,721 @ $4.26 | $16K | +0.9% of holding | −14.0% | −52.0% | 412,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,005 @ $5.10 | $102K | +0.2% of holding | −42.7% | −33.8% | 13,131,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,902 @ $5.10 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | −42.7% | −33.8% | 1,248,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,312 @ $5.10 | $7K | +0.2% of holding | −42.7% | −33.8% | 861,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,258 @ $5.10 | $6K | +0.2% of holding | −42.7% | −33.8% | 825,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 623 @ $5.10 | $3K | +0.2% of holding | −42.7% | −33.8% | 408,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,277 @ $5.10 | $12K | +0.0% of holding | −42.1% | −33.4% | 13,111,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 216 @ $5.10 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | −42.1% | −33.4% | 1,246,540 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 149 @ $5.10 | $760 | +0.0% of holding | −42.1% | −33.4% | 859,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 143 @ $5.10 | $729 | +0.0% of holding | −42.1% | −33.4% | 824,692 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 71 @ $5.10 | $362 | +0.0% of holding | −42.1% | −33.4% | 408,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,051 @ $5.06 | $106K | +0.2% of holding | −41.1% | −40.8% | 13,109,018 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-21 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,001 @ $5.06 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | −41.1% | −40.8% | 1,246,324 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-21 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,380 @ $5.06 | $7K | +0.2% of holding | −41.1% | −40.8% | 859,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-21 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,324 @ $5.06 | $7K | +0.2% of holding | −41.1% | −40.8% | 824,549 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-21 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 655 @ $5.06 | $3K | +0.2% of holding | −41.1% | −40.8% | 408,132 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-17 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 79,703 @ $5.15 | $410K | +0.6% of holding | −38.8% | −38.0% | 13,087,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,577 @ $5.15 | $39K | +0.6% of holding | −38.8% | −38.0% | 1,244,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,226 @ $5.15 | $27K | +0.6% of holding | −38.8% | −38.0% | 858,198 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,013 @ $5.15 | $26K | +0.6% of holding | −38.8% | −38.0% | 823,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,481 @ $5.15 | $13K | +0.6% of holding | −38.8% | −38.0% | 407,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,850 @ $5.11 | $204K | +0.3% of holding | −33.7% | −35.5% | 13,008,264 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,789 @ $5.11 | $19K | +0.3% of holding | −33.7% | −35.5% | 1,236,746 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,613 @ $5.11 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −33.7% | −35.5% | 852,972 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,507 @ $5.11 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −33.7% | −35.5% | 818,212 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,241 @ $5.11 | $6K | +0.3% of holding | −33.7% | −35.5% | 404,996 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,851 @ $5.14 | $205K | +0.3% of holding | −32.4% | −33.0% | 12,968,414 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-15 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,789 @ $5.14 | $19K | +0.3% of holding | −32.4% | −33.0% | 1,232,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-15 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,613 @ $5.14 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −32.4% | −33.0% | 850,359 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-15 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,506 @ $5.14 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −32.4% | −33.0% | 815,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-15 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,241 @ $5.14 | $6K | +0.3% of holding | −32.4% | −33.0% | 403,755 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-14 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,850 @ $5.15 | $205K | +0.3% of holding | −32.8% | −36.7% | 12,928,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,789 @ $5.15 | $20K | +0.3% of holding | −32.8% | −36.7% | 1,229,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,613 @ $5.15 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −32.8% | −36.7% | 847,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,507 @ $5.15 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −32.8% | −36.7% | 813,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,241 @ $5.15 | $6K | +0.3% of holding | −32.8% | −36.7% | 402,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 59,776 @ $5.14 | $307K | +0.5% of holding | −25.2% | −41.7% | 12,888,713 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,683 @ $5.14 | $29K | +0.5% of holding | −25.2% | −41.7% | 1,225,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,920 @ $5.14 | $20K | +0.5% of holding | −25.2% | −41.7% | 845,133 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,760 @ $5.14 | $19K | +0.5% of holding | −25.2% | −41.7% | 810,692 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,861 @ $5.14 | $10K | +0.5% of holding | −25.2% | −41.7% | 401,273 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,850 @ $5.16 | $205K | +0.3% of holding | −27.3% | −44.0% | 12,828,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,789 @ $5.16 | $20K | +0.3% of holding | −27.3% | −44.0% | 1,219,696 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,613 @ $5.16 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −27.3% | −44.0% | 841,213 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,507 @ $5.16 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −27.3% | −44.0% | 806,932 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,241 @ $5.16 | $6K | +0.3% of holding | −27.3% | −44.0% | 399,412 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-08 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,850 @ $5.26 | $209K | +0.3% of holding | −36.5% | −45.4% | 12,789,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,789 @ $5.26 | $20K | +0.3% of holding | −36.5% | −45.4% | 1,215,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,613 @ $5.26 | $14K | +0.3% of holding | −36.5% | −45.4% | 838,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,507 @ $5.26 | $13K | +0.3% of holding | −36.5% | −45.4% | 804,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,241 @ $5.26 | $7K | +0.3% of holding | −36.5% | −45.4% | 398,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 79,702 @ $5.46 | $435K | +0.6% of holding | −37.8% | −50.5% | 12,749,237 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-07 | Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,578 @ $5.46 | $41K | +0.6% of holding | −37.8% | −50.5% | 1,212,118 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Michel Christian | officer | Award / grant | 140,319 | 140,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | WYNNE STEVEN E | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 143,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Elliott Rachael B. | officer | Award / grant | 121,019 | 236,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Marshall Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 106,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Meier Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 74,522 | 127,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | NORD DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 113,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Livingston Wendy A. | officer | Award / grant | 105,095 | 174,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Joubert Tracey | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 106,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | TATEN BRUCE M. | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 126,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Halligan Catherine Ann | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 103,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Hayes James S | officer | Award / grant | 127,388 | 212,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Christensen William | director | Award / grant | 562,766 | 906,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Wendt Roderick | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 118,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Franzen Antonella B | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 84,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Hilton Michael F | director | Award / grant | 38,216 | 89,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Award / grant | 150,955 | 243,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,634 | 92,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Hayes James S | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,554 | 85,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Christensen William | director | Withheld for tax | 22,373 | 343,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,834 | 98,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Hayes James S | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,982 | 89,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Livingston Wendy A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,153 | 69,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Meier Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,933 | 52,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Christensen William | director | Withheld for tax | 9,570 | 365,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Hayes James S | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,380 | 93,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,156 | 103,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Livingston Wendy A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,987 | 72,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Meier Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,395 | 55,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Embt Jeffrey Donald | officer | Award / grant | 73,529 | 73,529 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Elliott Rachael B. | officer | Award / grant | 115,207 | 115,207 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-01 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,284 | 106,063 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,199 | 107,347 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Livingston Wendy A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,363 | 74,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | Stoddard Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,900 | 108,546 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Franzen Antonella B | director | Award / grant | 37,974 | 46,483 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Halligan Catherine Ann | director | Award / grant | 37,974 | 65,675 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | NORD DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 37,974 | 75,312 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Marshall Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 37,974 | 67,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Wendt Roderick | director | Award / grant | 37,974 | 80,396 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | WYNNE STEVEN E | director | Award / grant | 37,974 | 104,844 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.