JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.35 · now $47.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JEF has typically landed between $38.50 and $55.12 — a range of −18.7% to +16.4% from the issuance price $47.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where JEF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$38.5worst · -18.7%$55.12best · +16.4%
  • now $47.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.57 (+2.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.03–$52.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $38.5–$55.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-21−52.9%−52.9%+0.0%
2008-10-22−51.5%−51.5%+0.2%
2008-09-25−49.2%−49.6%+3.7%
3 best
2009-03-06+55.5%+0.0%+55.5%
2009-04-08+52.6%+0.0%+52.6%
2009-03-11+49.0%−3.8%+49.0%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.2%
n=18
Feb
53%
−1.0%
n=19
Mar
42%
−3.4%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.6%
n=19
May
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.6%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$69$362026-07-15: 1 insider purchase, $318.7M — SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.2026-05-06: 2 insider sales, $52 — FRIEDMAN BRIAN P …2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $310.0M — SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $310.0M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $522026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $318.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. — Purchase on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN BRIAN P — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN BRIAN P — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorPurchase5,906,542 @ $53.96$318.7M+222.1% of holding−9.5%not yet — horizon still open8,566,379Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06FRIEDMAN BRIAN PdirectorSale1 @ $51.91$38−0.0% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open2,061,442Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06FRIEDMAN BRIAN PdirectorSale0 @ $51.88$13−0.0% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open2,061,442Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorPurchase6,429,337 @ $48.22$310.0Mownership Δ n/a+5.5%not yet — horizon still open6,429,337Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

136 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28HANDLER RICHARD BdirectorAward / grant75,53112,625,397Form 4
2026-08-28FRIEDMAN BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant29,0162,037,263Form 4
2026-08-28Larson Matthew ScottofficerAward / grant74699,756Form 4
2026-08-28Sharp Michael J.officerAward / grant746168,409Form 4
2026-08-28O Kane Michael TdirectorAward / grant538133,030Form 4
2026-08-28BEYER ROBERT DdirectorAward / grant501113,257Form 4
2026-08-28Weiler MelissadirectorAward / grant16540,147Form 4
2026-08-28Ellis-Kirk MatricedirectorAward / grant16532,147Form 4
2026-08-07FRIEDMAN BRIAN PdirectorGift81,7342,008,247Form 4
2026-07-10SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise3,769,50040,579,081Form 4
2026-07-10SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise3,769,5002,659,837Form 4
2026-07-10SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise3,769,50040,579,081Form 4
2026-07-10SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise3,769,5002,659,837Form 4
2026-06-30SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise55,1250Form 4
2026-06-30SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise27,562,50036,809,581Form 4
2026-06-30SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise27,562,50036,809,581Form 4
2026-05-29HANDLER RICHARD BdirectorAward / grant97,13612,549,867Form 4
2026-05-29FRIEDMAN BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant29,0032,089,981Form 4
2026-05-29HANDLER RICHARD BdirectorWithheld for tax10,54512,452,731Form 4
2026-05-29Larson Matthew ScottofficerAward / grant74699,010Form 4
2026-05-29Sharp Michael J.officerAward / grant746167,663Form 4
2026-05-29O Kane Michael TdirectorAward / grant538132,492Form 4
2026-05-29BEYER ROBERT DdirectorAward / grant501112,756Form 4
2026-05-29Weiler MelissadirectorAward / grant16539,982Form 4
2026-05-29Ellis-Kirk MatricedirectorAward / grant16531,982Form 4
2026-05-28HANDLER RICHARD BdirectorDisposition48712,463,276Form 4
2026-05-28FRIEDMAN BRIAN PdirectorDisposition4642,060,978Form 4
2026-05-23HANDLER RICHARD BdirectorWithheld for tax1,440,30712,463,763Form 4
2026-04-27SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise9,247,0810Form 4
2026-04-27SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise9,247,0819,247,081Form 4
2026-04-27SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise9,247,0810Form 4
2026-04-27SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.directorOption exercise9,247,0819,247,081Form 4
2026-03-26Ellis-Kirk MatricedirectorAward / grant5,46131,817Form 4
2026-03-26Adamany LindadirectorAward / grant5,46184,759Form 4
2026-03-26O Kane Michael TdirectorAward / grant5,461131,954Form 4
2026-03-26BEYER ROBERT DdirectorAward / grant5,461112,255Form 4
2026-03-26Gilmartin MaryAnnedirectorAward / grant5,46157,293Form 4
2026-03-26JONES THOMAS WdirectorAward / grant5,46176,701Form 4
2026-03-26Katz Jacob MdirectorAward / grant5,46157,293Form 4
2026-03-26Weiler MelissadirectorAward / grant5,46139,817Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Zoe LofgrenHousesale2023-06-062023-05-26$1–15K
Cindy AxneHousesale2023-01-022022-12-23$1–15K
Cindy AxneHousesale2023-01-022022-12-23$1–15K
Cindy AxneHousesale2023-01-022022-12-23$1–15K
Cindy AxneHousepurchase2022-02-082022-01-13$1–15K
Cindy AxneHousepurchase2021-10-082019-02-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-11-122019-10-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-06-112019-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-02-122019-01-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.