Issued 2026-09-16 at $140.47 · now $140.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JCI has typically landed between $125.27 and $159.10 — a range of −10.8% to +13.3% from the issuance price $140.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($140.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $140.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $140.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $142.54 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $134.94–$150.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $125.27–$159.1
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −44.2% | −44.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +0.5% |
| 2008-09-26 | −40.0% | −40.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +38.1% | +0.0% | +47.7% |
| 2016-10-26 | +32.2% | −0.7% | +32.2% |
| 2016-10-25 | +31.9% | −0.4% | +31.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$30.93
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$171.35
- Analyst target · range $130.00–$180.00$154.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$140.47
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Cohade Pierre E | director | Sale | 3,300 @ $147.79 | $488K | −23.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,775 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 20,917 @ $152.98 | $3.2M | −54.4% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $153.79 | $384K | −14.3% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Grabowski Todd M | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $146.20 | $263K | −6.4% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,215 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Grabowski Todd M | officer | Sale | 4,274 @ $145.50 | $622K | −13.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,015 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 48,070 @ $141.07 | $6.8M | −33.0% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,798 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 25,138 @ $140.51 | $3.5M | −30.3% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,959 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 14,701 @ $141.55 | $2.1M | −15.0% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,097 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 900 @ $141.27 | $127K | −1.6% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | MCCONEGHY DANIEL C | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $142.56 | $513K | −12.9% of holding | −0.2% | −11.8% | 24,273 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Grabowski Todd M | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $134.75 | $674K | −12.2% of holding | −0.8% | −2.4% | 35,886 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Grabowski Todd M | officer | Sale | 1,050 @ $135.59 | $142K | −2.9% of holding | −0.8% | −2.4% | 34,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Vergnano Mark | director | Purchase | 7,665 @ $131.94 | $1.0M | +25.6% of holding | +0.3% | +0.8% | 37,602 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Donofrio John | director | Sale | 21,595 @ $116.00 | $2.5M | −52.5% of holding | −4.9% | +17.5% | 19,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 32,031 @ $113.20 | $3.6M | −32.4% of holding | +2.3% | +8.0% | 66,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Sale | 10,500 @ $122.03 | $1.3M | −8.4% of holding | −7.9% | +5.8% | 115,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | MCCONEGHY DANIEL C | director | Sale | 5,917 @ $105.73 | $626K | −19.1% of holding | −0.7% | +24.7% | 25,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,422 @ $105.06 | $149K | −1.0% of holding | −1.5% | +25.4% | 139,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,422 @ $103.69 | $147K | −1.0% of holding | −3.5% | +3.8% | 140,881 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,022 @ $104.56 | $107K | −0.7% of holding | −2.0% | +4.5% | 142,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 400 @ $105.48 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | −2.0% | +4.5% | 141,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | RATHNINDE ANURUDDHA | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $103.13 | $1.5M | −26.1% of holding | −1.5% | −4.2% | 42,574 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,422 @ $100.90 | $143K | −1.0% of holding | +0.1% | −0.1% | 143,282 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-09 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $91.70 | $9.2M | −10.0% of holding | +5.1% | +14.4% | 904,305 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Vandiepenbeeck Marc | officer | Sale | 23,028 @ $90.96 | $2.1M | −13.5% of holding | +7.4% | +15.7% | 147,673 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-08 | Vandiepenbeeck Marc | officer | Sale | 5,261 @ $90.77 | $478K | −3.0% of holding | +7.4% | +15.7% | 170,701 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 822 @ $86.77 | $71K | −0.6% of holding | +8.9% | +9.4% | 145,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 400 @ $88.09 | $35K | −0.3% of holding | +8.9% | +9.4% | 144,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $85.16 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | +8.9% | +9.4% | 145,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,422 @ $79.72 | $113K | −1.0% of holding | +7.6% | +14.9% | 145,502 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 15,669 @ $77.49 | $1.2M | −1.5% of holding | +2.9% | +18.3% | 1,003,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-12 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $79.47 | $7.9M | −8.9% of holding | +3.2% | +19.8% | 1,019,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 84,331 @ $79.52 | $6.7M | −7.0% of holding | +3.2% | +19.8% | 1,119,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,422 @ $86.23 | $123K | −1.0% of holding | +2.7% | +19.1% | 146,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 49,476 @ $85.96 | $4.3M | −3.9% of holding | +1.5% | +20.3% | 1,203,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-25 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 64,145 @ $83.03 | $5.3M | −5.0% of holding | +3.1% | +21.1% | 1,214,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 54,263 @ $84.14 | $4.6M | −4.1% of holding | +3.1% | +21.1% | 1,278,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 10,855 @ $83.71 | $909K | −0.9% of holding | +3.1% | +21.1% | 1,203,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $83.89 | $6.3M | −5.9% of holding | +4.2% | +19.4% | 1,203,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 134,281 @ $89.22 | $12.0M | −9.8% of holding | −1.1% | +12.6% | 1,232,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-14 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 28,613 @ $89.55 | $2.6M | −2.3% of holding | −1.1% | +12.6% | 1,203,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-13 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 140,502 @ $88.35 | $12.4M | −10.3% of holding | −1.0% | +11.7% | 1,226,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 22,392 @ $89.06 | $2.0M | −1.8% of holding | −1.0% | +11.7% | 1,203,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 187,309 @ $89.09 | $16.7M | −13.3% of holding | −4.2% | +12.4% | 1,221,751 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-11 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 17,858 @ $89.60 | $1.6M | −1.5% of holding | −4.2% | +12.4% | 1,203,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-10 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 202,768 @ $89.06 | $18.1M | −13.8% of holding | −4.5% | +13.2% | 1,262,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $89.83 | $216K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | +13.2% | 1,260,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 200,274 @ $88.02 | $17.6M | −13.7% of holding | −4.7% | +15.1% | 1,265,421 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-07 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 4,894 @ $88.57 | $433K | −0.4% of holding | −4.7% | +15.1% | 1,260,527 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-06 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 163,076 @ $85.99 | $14.0M | −11.1% of holding | −3.9% | +15.2% | 1,302,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Donofrio John | director | Sale | 69,746 @ $87.15 | $6.1M | −71.0% of holding | −3.9% | +15.2% | 28,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 42,092 @ $86.89 | $3.7M | −3.2% of holding | −3.9% | +15.2% | 1,260,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | MCCONEGHY DANIEL C | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $87.73 | $171K | −7.3% of holding | −3.9% | +15.2% | 24,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | MANNING NATHAN D | officer | Sale | 1,421 @ $76.44 | $109K | −0.9% of holding | +9.2% | +31.6% | 148,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Vandiepenbeeck Marc | officer | Sale | 186 @ $78.60 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | −1.2% | +27.0% | 91,372 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 105,663 @ $83.18 | $8.8M | −7.6% of holding | −0.3% | +25.7% | 1,286,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 18,834 @ $83.64 | $1.6M | −1.5% of holding | −0.3% | +25.7% | 1,267,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | SULLIVAN MARLON | officer | Sale | 7,230 @ $83.35 | $603K | −18.3% of holding | −0.3% | +25.7% | 32,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Oliver George | director | Sale | 124,497 @ $82.67 | $10.3M | −8.9% of holding | −0.5% | +24.6% | 1,267,716 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Vandiepenbeeck Marc | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,760 | 125,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Withheld for tax | 18,625 | 38,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Scalia Christopher M | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,070 | 23,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Scalia Christopher M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,831 | 25,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ESTEVES IRENE M | director | Award / grant | 937 | 937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Option exercise | 37,753 | 120,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Option exercise | 25,018 | 145,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Option exercise | 25,018 | 25,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Schlitz Lei Zhang | director | Option exercise | 37,753 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | HEUER BRANDT JULIE M | director | Withheld for tax | 3,977 | 54,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | HEUER BRANDT JULIE M | director | Withheld for tax | 2,372 | 58,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Weidemanis Joakim | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,625 | 54,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Grabowski Todd M | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,547 | 32,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Dunbar Webster Roy | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 17,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Vergnano Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 30,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Cohade Pierre E | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 14,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Decker Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 2,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 4,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Tinggren Juergen | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 31,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | YOUNG JOHN D | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 17,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | HAGGERTY GRETCHEN R | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 22,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Blackwell Jean | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 10,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | KHANNA AYESHA | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 5,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kotagiri Seetarama | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 4,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | YOUNG JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 18,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | HAGGERTY GRETCHEN R | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 23,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Tinggren Juergen | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 32,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 5,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Blackwell Jean | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 11,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Dunbar Webster Roy | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 18,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | KHANNA AYESHA | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 6,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Cohade Pierre E | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 15,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kotagiri Seetarama | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 5,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Vergnano Mark | director | Award / grant | 1,285 | 31,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vergnano Mark | director | Gift | 4,600 | 33,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vergnano Mark | director | Gift | 4,600 | 4,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vergnano Mark | director | Gift | 3,065 | 29,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vergnano Mark | director | Gift | 3,065 | 3,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Vandiepenbeeck Marc | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,186 | 145,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hughes Susan Mckee | officer | Award / grant | 12,456 | 12,456 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-10-02 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $15–50K |
| Bruce Westerman | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-21 | $1–15K |
| Bruce Westerman | House | purchase | 2025-04-16 | 2025-03-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.