Issued 2026-09-16 at $297.24 · now $297.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JBL has typically landed between $256.34 and $355.81 — a range of −13.8% to +19.7% from the issuance price $297.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($297.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JBL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $297.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $297.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $305.05 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $283.9–$326.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $256.34–$355.81
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −51.4% | −51.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −50.3% | −50.3% | +1.2% |
| 2009-02-06 | −50.3% | −50.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-11 | +104.5% | +0.0% | +104.5% |
| 2009-03-24 | +94.6% | +0.0% | +94.6% |
| 2009-03-10 | +88.2% | +0.0% | +97.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$99.79
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$273.98
- Analyst target · range $426.00–$482.00$455.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$297.24
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Tyagarajan N. V. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $299.63 | $150K | +16.9% of holding | +18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,464 | Form 4 · filed 19 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 232 @ $320.59 | $74K | −0.6% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 209 @ $317.88 | $66K | −0.5% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 135 @ $319.11 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 115 @ $315.05 | $36K | −0.3% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 89 @ $316.45 | $28K | −0.2% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,585 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 76 @ $327.51 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 76 @ $325.81 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,674 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 66 @ $322.06 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 2 @ $330.00 | $660 | −0.0% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,892 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Crowley Matthew | officer | Sale | 94 @ $345.00 | $32K | −0.2% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $340.00 | $340K | −2.4% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,843 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Priestley Andrew | officer | Sale | 3,169 @ $330.00 | $1.0M | −5.3% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | BORGES STEVEN D | officer | Sale | 5,126 @ $317.51 | $1.6M | −6.7% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,398 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Yap May Yee | officer | Sale | 1,634 @ $306.74 | $501K | −6.4% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Renno Rafael | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $305.00 | $305K | −5.5% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Priestley Andrew | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $301.00 | $1.2M | −6.2% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,267 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | ANSARI ANOUSHEH | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $300.00 | $600K | −5.9% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,800 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Berry Adam E. | officer | Sale | 1,585 @ $301.23 | $477K | −8.8% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,335 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | BORGES STEVEN D | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $295.00 | $2.1M | −8.4% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,524 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 8,997 @ $286.49 | $2.6M | −3.4% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | BORGES STEVEN D | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $290.00 | $2.0M | −7.7% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Renno Rafael | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $288.00 | $288K | −5.2% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 470 @ $289.49 | $136K | −0.2% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 262,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Berry Adam E. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $272.80 | $273K | −5.3% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $278.33 | $278K | −2.4% of holding | +13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | ANSARI ANOUSHEH | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $270.00 | $270K | −2.9% of holding | +13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 115 @ $245.65 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 41,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 110 @ $244.67 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 41,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 60 @ $242.53 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 42,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 58 @ $241.15 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 42,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 42 @ $246.28 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 42,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 36 @ $238.61 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 42,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Sale | 1 @ $236.17 | $236 | −0.0% of holding | +6.4% | +28.4% | 42,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 8,038 @ $246.25 | $2.0M | −3.0% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 262,566 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 3,241 @ $247.11 | $801K | −1.2% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 270,604 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 2,373 @ $245.42 | $582K | −0.9% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 273,845 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 476 @ $254.91 | $121K | −0.2% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 276,218 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 442 @ $249.75 | $110K | −0.2% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 276,694 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 291 @ $256.74 | $75K | −0.1% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 277,136 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dastoor Michael | director | Sale | 139 @ $248.51 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | +7.8% | +20.0% | 277,427 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 13,756 @ $249.86 | $3.4M | −1.2% of holding | +4.5% | +18.2% | 1,111,459 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 3,444 @ $250.56 | $863K | −0.3% of holding | +4.5% | +18.2% | 1,125,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Berry Adam E. | officer | Sale | 1,596 @ $253.20 | $404K | −7.8% of holding | +4.5% | +18.2% | 18,920 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $255.17 | $714K | −0.2% of holding | +3.1% | +13.1% | 1,128,659 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | ANSARI ANOUSHEH | director | Sale | 500 @ $252.00 | $126K | −1.5% of holding | +3.1% | +13.1% | 33,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 4,223 @ $240.00 | $1.0M | −0.4% of holding | +6.7% | +16.6% | 1,131,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 15,777 @ $240.06 | $3.8M | −1.4% of holding | +7.2% | +20.1% | 1,135,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | ANSARI ANOUSHEH | director | Sale | 500 @ $240.00 | $120K | −1.4% of holding | +7.2% | +20.1% | 34,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 10,164 @ $236.26 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,151,459 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 4,164 @ $237.30 | $988K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,161,623 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 3,271 @ $235.53 | $770K | −0.3% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,165,787 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 1,177 @ $238.04 | $280K | −0.1% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,169,058 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 510 @ $234.15 | $119K | −0.0% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,170,235 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 485 @ $232.06 | $113K | −0.0% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,170,745 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 229 @ $231.21 | $53K | −0.0% of holding | +1.2% | +23.6% | 1,171,230 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | BORGES STEVEN D | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $235.00 | $2.4M | −9.9% of holding | +2.2% | +46.1% | 90,524 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $225.32 | $11.3M | −4.1% of holding | +6.7% | +55.8% | 1,171,459 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | McCoy Frederic E. | officer | Sale | 14,104 @ $225.15 | $3.2M | −12.3% of holding | +6.7% | +55.8% | 100,376 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | McCoy Frederic E. | officer | Sale | 5,412 @ $224.05 | $1.2M | −4.5% of holding | +6.7% | +55.8% | 114,480 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
133 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Renno Rafael | officer | Withheld for tax | 272 | 16,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | PLANT JOHN C | director | Award / grant | 600 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Tyagarajan N. V. | director | Award / grant | 600 | 2,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | RAYMUND STEVEN A | director | Gift | 5,120 | 63,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | HOLLAND CHRISTOPHER S | director | Gift | 960 | 11,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tyagarajan N. V. | director | Withheld for tax | 147 | 2,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Priestley Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 4,090 | 64,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | HOLLAND CHRISTOPHER S | director | Award / grant | 900 | 12,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Chandrasekaran Sujatha | director | Award / grant | 900 | 1,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Renno Rafael | officer | Award / grant | 1,540 | 16,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Renno Rafael | officer | Award / grant | 1,540 | 17,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Renno Rafael | officer | Award / grant | 1,530 | 19,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | EDMAN THOMAS T | director | Award / grant | 900 | 900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | ANSARI ANOUSHEH | director | Award / grant | 900 | 34,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Skillern Raejeanne | director | Award / grant | 900 | 900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | RAYMUND STEVEN A | director | Award / grant | 900 | 68,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Priestley Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 8,170 | 60,177 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | RAYMUND STEVEN A | director | Gift | 6,500 | 67,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Award / grant | 5,240 | 1,233,599 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Award / grant | 2,620 | 1,241,459 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Award / grant | 5,240 | 1,238,839 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | McCoy Frederic E. | officer | Gift | 1,000 | 122,387 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Dastoor Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 2,960 | 277,509 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | McCoy Frederic E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,481 | 123,387 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | BORGES STEVEN D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,481 | 100,524 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Withheld for tax | 1,184 | 1,248,359 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Hebard Gregory B | officer | Withheld for tax | 652 | 64,612 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Schick Gary K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 591 | 42,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Melachrino Kristine | officer | Withheld for tax | 591 | 40,297 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | McKay Francis | officer | Withheld for tax | 555 | 43,489 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Crowley Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 473 | 58,263 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Priestley Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 444 | 51,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Berry Adam E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 237 | 20,459 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | MONDELLO MARK T | director | Withheld for tax | 8,263 | 1,249,543 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Dastoor Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 1,698 | 280,469 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | BORGES STEVEN D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,529 | 103,005 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | McCoy Frederic E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,322 | 125,868 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Priestley Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 992 | 52,394 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | McKay Francis | officer | Withheld for tax | 868 | 44,044 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Crowley Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 660 | 65,211 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2024-09-11 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-05-06 | 2024-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2023-11-11 | 2023-10-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-12-06 | 2022-11-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.