JBIOJade Biosciences, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.65 · now $16.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JBIO has typically landed between $11.68 and $24.34 — a range of −29.9% to +46.2% from the issuance price $16.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,286 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where JBIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.68worst · -29.9%$24.34best · +46.2%
  • now $16.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.59 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.02–$19.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.68–$24.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,286 windows spanning 2021-06-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-05-16−93.6%−93.6%+12.4%
2024-05-17−92.9%−93.1%+19.7%
2024-06-14−92.6%−94.3%+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-27+97.5%−1.0%+100.5%
2026-03-26+92.5%−4.9%+92.5%
2026-03-24+90.1%+0.0%+91.4%

1,286 overlapping windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • January 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of JADE101 in Participants With Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−7.3%
n=5
Feb
40%
−0.5%
n=5
Mar
60%
+19.1%
n=5
Apr
40%
−14.8%
n=5
May
0%
−15.5%
n=5
Jun
80%
−2.6%
n=5
Jul
50%
−4.9%
n=6
Aug
67%
+6.2%
n=6
Sep
50%
−2.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
+0.5%
n=5
Nov
60%
+13.8%
n=5
Dec
80%
+21.3%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$7↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-05-16Frohlich TomdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $7.40$44Kownership Δ n/a+12.4%+32.0%6,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-25Eisner MarkdirectorAward / grant47,67547,675Form 4
2026-06-09CAIN CHRISTOPHER W.directorAward / grant34,84334,843Form 4
2026-06-09DOBMEIER ERICdirectorAward / grant34,84334,843Form 4
2026-06-09Fairmount Funds Management LLCdirectorAward / grant34,84334,843Form 4
2026-06-09Lavelle ErindirectorAward / grant34,84334,843Form 4
2026-06-09Klein Lawrence OttodirectorAward / grant34,84334,843Form 4
2026-02-12Balta ElizabethofficerAward / grant28,12528,125Form 4
2026-02-12Balta ElizabethofficerAward / grant168,750168,750Form 4
2026-02-12Dahms Bradford D.officerAward / grant37,81337,813Form 4
2026-02-12Dahms Bradford D.officerAward / grant226,875226,875Form 4
2026-02-12Frohlich TomdirectorAward / grant78,75086,331Form 4
2026-02-12Frohlich TomdirectorAward / grant472,500472,500Form 4
2026-02-12King Andrew JamesofficerAward / grant41,250386,113Form 4
2026-02-12King Andrew JamesofficerAward / grant247,500247,500Form 4
2025-10-06Fairmount Funds Management LLCdirectorAward / grant1,333,1261,897,677Form 4
2025-10-06Fairmount Funds Management LLCdirectorAward / grant855,047855,047Form 4
2025-07-14Dahms Bradford D.officerAward / grant526,000526,000Form 4
2025-04-29Klein Lawrence OttodirectorAward / grant23,01723,017Form 4
2025-04-29Fairmount Funds Management LLCdirectorAward / grant23,01723,017Form 4
2025-04-29Lavelle ErindirectorAward / grant23,01723,017Form 4
2025-04-29CAIN CHRISTOPHER W.directorAward / grant23,01723,017Form 4
2025-04-29DOBMEIER ERICdirectorAward / grant23,01723,017Form 4
2025-04-28RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorOther acquisition1,062,3261,287,858Form 4
2025-04-28RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorOther acquisition1,062,3261,287,858Form 4
2025-04-28RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorOther acquisition1,062,3261,287,858Form 4
2025-04-28RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorOther acquisition1,062,3261,287,858Form 4
2025-04-28RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorOther acquisition1,062,3261,287,858Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.