Issued 2026-09-16 at $236.73 · now $236.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JBHT has typically landed between $210.18 and $269.89 — a range of −11.2% to +14.0% from the issuance price $236.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($236.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JBHT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $236.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $236.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $238.47 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $224.36–$252.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $210.18–$269.89
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −34.0% | −34.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −29.4% | −29.4% | +4.7% |
| 2008-09-08 | −28.8% | −28.8% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +39.3% | −0.2% | +42.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +38.1% | −3.0% | +38.1% |
| 2020-03-16 | +33.7% | +0.0% | +33.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$54.06
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$216.41
- Analyst target · range $200.00–$370.00$300.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$236.73
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Webb Brian | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $284.01 | $426K | −8.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,881 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Keefauver David | officer | Sale | 703 @ $285.13 | $200K | −47.1% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 790 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Frazier Spencer | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $258.20 | $516K | −30.3% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,604 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Sale | 7,644 @ $261.91 | $2.0M | −24.2% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,982 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Field Darren P. | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $254.49 | $1.0M | −31.5% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Hobbs Nicholas | officer | Sale | 1,272 @ $250.75 | $319K | −1.4% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,736 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | THOMPSON JAMES K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $254.28 | $254K | −4.9% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BOATTINI JENNIFER | officer | Sale | 2,238 @ $232.00 | $519K | −11.8% of holding | −4.6% | −0.7% | 16,650 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | THOMPSON JAMES K | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $230.75 | $531K | −10.1% of holding | −8.8% | +9.8% | 20,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Delco Albert Brad | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $227.25 | $227K | −12.5% of holding | −3.3% | +4.5% | 6,983 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Sale | 4,028 @ $225.13 | $907K | −11.7% of holding | −4.3% | +4.8% | 30,395 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Kuhlow John | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $225.68 | $226K | −5.3% of holding | −4.3% | +4.8% | 17,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Woodruff Ronald Greer | officer | Sale | 331 @ $225.57 | $75K | −7.6% of holding | −4.3% | +4.8% | 4,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Field Darren P. | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $219.76 | $2.0M | −45.6% of holding | +4.0% | +11.6% | 10,736 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Sale | 3,919 @ $210.13 | $824K | −12.8% of holding | +6.5% | +29.5% | 26,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Woodruff Ronald Greer | officer | Sale | 1,391 @ $207.00 | $288K | −25.7% of holding | +9.4% | +30.3% | 4,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Hobbs Nicholas | officer | Sale | 3,038 @ $201.97 | $614K | −3.3% of holding | +10.1% | +33.3% | 90,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Webb Brian | officer | Sale | 796 @ $189.11 | $151K | −4.8% of holding | +7.1% | +44.3% | 15,697 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Keefauver David | officer | Sale | 1,588 @ $189.29 | $301K | −74.3% of holding | +7.0% | +41.7% | 550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Bracy Kevin | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $191.15 | $210K | −10.3% of holding | +7.0% | +41.7% | 9,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $190.04 | $380K | −6.2% of holding | +6.6% | +43.8% | 30,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Delco Albert Brad | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $179.54 | $180K | −12.4% of holding | +5.4% | +41.4% | 7,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Kuhlow John | officer | Sale | 3,225 @ $179.76 | $580K | −19.8% of holding | +7.6% | +44.9% | 13,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Frazier Spencer | officer | Purchase | 13 @ $161.69 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | +13.7% | +48.9% | 6,184 | Form 4 · filed 112 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
276 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | GARRISON EARL WAYNE | officer | Gift | 76,744 | 1,108,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hobbs Nicholas | officer | Gift | 6,204 | 85,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | ROBO JAMES L | director | Other acquisition | 37,856 | 80,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Delco Albert Brad | officer | Gift | 98 | 6,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | GASAWAY SHARILYN S | director | Award / grant | 1,399 | 33,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | ROBO JAMES L | director | Award / grant | 1,359 | 42,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Hill Thad | director | Award / grant | 1,320 | 10,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Edwardson Francesca M. | director | Award / grant | 1,241 | 32,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Lisboa Persio V | director | Award / grant | 1,241 | 7,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Biggs M. Brett | director | Award / grant | 855 | 2,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Simpson Shelley | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,754 | 83,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hobbs Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,100 | 93,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 943 | 31,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Webb Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 918 | 17,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kuhlow John | officer | Withheld for tax | 858 | 19,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Field Darren P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 412 | 12,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Keefauver David | officer | Withheld for tax | 193 | 1,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | ROBERTS JOHN N | director | Withheld for tax | 172 | 335,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Webb Brian | officer | Option exercise | 1,338 | 17,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Keefauver David | officer | Option exercise | 420 | 1,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Keefauver David | officer | Option exercise | 575 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | ROBERTS JOHN N | director | Option exercise | 7,316 | 335,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | ROBERTS JOHN N | director | Option exercise | 10,009 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Simpson Shelley | officer | Option exercise | 3,954 | 85,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Simpson Shelley | officer | Option exercise | 5,410 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Option exercise | 2,174 | 32,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hicks Bradley W. | officer | Option exercise | 2,975 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Field Darren P. | officer | Option exercise | 2,372 | 13,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Field Darren P. | officer | Option exercise | 3,246 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hobbs Nicholas | officer | Option exercise | 2,372 | 94,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hobbs Nicholas | officer | Option exercise | 3,246 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kuhlow John | officer | Option exercise | 1,977 | 19,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kuhlow John | officer | Option exercise | 2,705 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Scott Stuart Lockard | officer | Option exercise | 1,878 | 54,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Scott Stuart Lockard | officer | Option exercise | 2,570 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Webb Brian | officer | Option exercise | 519 | 18,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Webb Brian | officer | Option exercise | 710 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Webb Brian | officer | Option exercise | 1,338 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Frazier Spencer | officer | Option exercise | 420 | 6,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Frazier Spencer | officer | Option exercise | 575 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-06-12 | 2023-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-08-09 | 2022-07-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-07-07 | 2022-06-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.