Issued 2026-09-16 at $243.59 · now $243.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JAZZ has typically landed between $217.72 and $278.87 — a range of −10.6% to +14.5% from the issuance price $243.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,831 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-06-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($243.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JAZZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $243.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $243.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $246.36 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $234.29–$258.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $217.72–$278.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,831 windows spanning 2007-06-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-17 | −70.4% | −70.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −69.1% | −69.1% | +1.6% |
| 2008-10-22 | −68.3% | −69.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-05-22 | +439.8% | +0.0% | +439.8% |
| 2009-05-13 | +379.7% | +0.0% | +379.7% |
| 2009-05-15 | +365.0% | +0.0% | +373.8% |
4,831 overlapping windows · 2007-06-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Feb
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
−0.8%
n=19
May
47%
+2.6%
n=19
Jun
58%
+15.5%
n=19
Jul
65%
+5.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
+2.2%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
37%
−2.9%
n=19
Nov
63%
+6.6%
n=19
Dec
53%
+2.5%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $240.94 | $289K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GALA RENEE D | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $243.03 | $486K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 143,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $250.13 | $1.5M | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 351,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 19,639 @ $250.60 | $4.9M | −20.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,245 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 18,113 @ $250.02 | $4.5M | −16.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 18,187 @ $247.86 | $4.5M | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 124,420 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 11,423 @ $248.67 | $2.8M | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,997 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 9,259 @ $251.95 | $2.3M | −12.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,986 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $252.76 | $76K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $252.98 | $1.5M | −1.6% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $240.47 | $1.4M | −1.6% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 366,682 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Smith Mark Douglas | director | Sale | 1,157 @ $230.55 | $267K | −10.7% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $231.83 | $278K | −2.3% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $235.12 | $1.4M | −1.6% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 372,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Pearce Samantha | officer | Sale | 6,907 @ $235.41 | $1.6M | −12.1% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,272 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 1,192 @ $236.97 | $282K | −2.2% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Winningham Rick E | director | Sale | 2,741 @ $241.57 | $662K | −22.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,567 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | McSharry Heather Ann | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $241.00 | $482K | −9.8% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,449 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $203.33 | $1.2M | −1.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,682 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 3,684 @ $190.22 | $701K | −0.9% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 386,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 2,292 @ $190.94 | $438K | −0.6% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 384,706 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 24 @ $191.74 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 384,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 1,287 @ $182.94 | $235K | −16.5% of holding | +5.7% | +16.0% | 6,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 3,159 @ $186.09 | $588K | −0.8% of holding | +4.3% | +18.0% | 408,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 2,608 @ $186.73 | $487K | −0.6% of holding | +4.3% | +18.0% | 406,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 233 @ $187.84 | $44K | −0.1% of holding | +4.3% | +18.0% | 405,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | RIEDEL NORBERT G | director | Sale | 3,415 @ $192.00 | $656K | −32.7% of holding | +4.0% | +15.9% | 7,024 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 1,117 @ $190.91 | $213K | −10.8% of holding | +4.0% | +15.9% | 9,235 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 16,602 @ $192.53 | $3.2M | −22.6% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 56,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 15,555 @ $190.28 | $3.0M | −18.5% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 68,391 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 11,529 @ $191.65 | $2.2M | −14.7% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 66,941 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Henderson Mary Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 5,343 @ $194.49 | $1.0M | −15.7% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 28,728 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 3,523 @ $193.58 | $682K | −5.3% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 63,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 2,916 @ $189.81 | $553K | −4.1% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 68,391 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 1,784 @ $191.88 | $342K | −2.9% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 60,024 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 1,253 @ $194.11 | $243K | −10.8% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 10,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 1,061 @ $190.00 | $202K | −1.7% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 62,357 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 1,009 @ $192.79 | $195K | −1.7% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 59,015 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 875 @ $192.07 | $168K | −1.5% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 56,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 549 @ $190.80 | $105K | −0.9% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 61,808 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Patil Neena M | director | Sale | 197 @ $193.60 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | +4.4% | +20.4% | 58,818 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Henderson Mary Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 2,238 @ $169.51 | $379K | −10.3% of holding | −2.6% | +36.9% | 19,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $171.20 | $770K | −39.1% of holding | −1.1% | +27.0% | 7,012 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 160 @ $171.11 | $27K | −2.2% of holding | −1.1% | +27.0% | 7,012 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 38,126 @ $177.27 | $6.8M | −8.8% of holding | −5.1% | +19.3% | 393,332 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 30,487 @ $178.06 | $5.4M | −6.5% of holding | −5.1% | +19.3% | 440,345 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 8,380 @ $179.23 | $1.5M | −1.9% of holding | −5.1% | +19.3% | 431,965 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 507 @ $179.79 | $91K | −0.1% of holding | −5.1% | +19.3% | 431,458 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | McSharry Heather Ann | director | Sale | 3,415 @ $177.78 | $607K | −14.3% of holding | −8.7% | +19.4% | 20,449 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 8,382 @ $180.88 | $1.5M | −2.1% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 397,060 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 5,517 @ $181.81 | $1.0M | −1.4% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 391,543 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Winningham Rick E | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $180.86 | $995K | −38.2% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 8,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 5,250 @ $182.07 | $956K | −42.8% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 7,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 3,384 @ $180.09 | $609K | −0.8% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 405,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 717 @ $182.60 | $131K | −0.2% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 390,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Carr Patricia | officer | Sale | 69 @ $181.66 | $13K | −1.0% of holding | −10.5% | +19.5% | 7,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Iannone Robert | director | Sale | 7,159 @ $168.26 | $1.2M | −9.0% of holding | −3.9% | +28.5% | 72,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $140.00 | $490K | −0.8% of holding | −2.9% | +37.8% | 408,826 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $131.78 | $264K | −0.5% of holding | −2.1% | +37.9% | 412,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $130.00 | $390K | −0.7% of holding | +0.9% | +37.9% | 429,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
174 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | GALA RENEE D | director | Withheld for tax | 1,967 | 145,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Henderson Mary Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,412 | 23,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Henderson Mary Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 15 | 23,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Henderson Mary Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,076 | 25,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McSharry Heather Ann | director | Withheld for tax | 1,840 | 18,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Kennedy Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 1,840 | 6,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 10,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Mark Douglas | director | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 9,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | ENRIGHT PATRICK G | director | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 21,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Hamill Laura | director | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 6,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Winningham Rick E | director | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 9,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | RIEDEL NORBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 6,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Withheld for tax | 1,209 | 357,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | LOVE TED W | director | Withheld for tax | 737 | 2,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Henderson Mary Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 16 | 25,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McSharry Heather Ann | director | Withheld for tax | 15 | 20,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Kennedy Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 15 | 8,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Mark Douglas | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 11,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | ENRIGHT PATRICK G | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 22,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | RIEDEL NORBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 8,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Winningham Rick E | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 9,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 12,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Hamill Laura | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 8,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Withheld for tax | 10 | 359,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | LOVE TED W | director | Withheld for tax | 6 | 3,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 27,584 | 139,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 26,116 | 111,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 2,916 | 142,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 884 | 112,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 2,916 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 26,116 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 27,584 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Iannone Robert | director | Option exercise | 884 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pearce Samantha | officer | Withheld for tax | 780 | 47,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kennedy Patrick | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 8,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Smith Mark Douglas | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 11,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | McSharry Heather Ann | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 20,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mulligan Seamus | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 1,184,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | COZADD BRUCE C | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 362,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Winningham Rick E | director | Award / grant | 1,605 | 11,172 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.