Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.25 · now $16.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JANX has typically landed between $11.60 and $22.10 — a range of −28.6% to +36.0% from the issuance price $16.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,300 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JANX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.94 (-1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.83–$18.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.6–$22.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,300 windows spanning 2021-06-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-11-26 | −59.4% | −60.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | −59.4% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | −59.4% | −59.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-30 | +420.4% | −13.4% | +428.2% |
| 2024-02-01 | +409.3% | −6.6% | +469.8% |
| 2024-01-29 | +408.2% | −16.7% | +408.2% |
1,300 overlapping windows · 2021-06-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
+1.2%
n=5
Feb
40%
+85.7%
n=5
Mar
20%
−16.4%
n=5
Apr
80%
+14.6%
n=5
May
40%
−8.8%
n=5
Jun
60%
−1.5%
n=5
Jul
67%
+8.2%
n=6
Aug
50%
+0.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−4.4%
n=6
Oct
80%
+9.2%
n=5
Nov
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Dec
60%
−2.1%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Doyle Janeen Noel | officer | Sale | 4,059 @ $14.03 | $57K | −5.1% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Dobek Maria | officer | Sale | 2,038 @ $14.17 | $29K | −5.9% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Campbell David Alan | director | Sale | 8,072 @ $13.73 | $111K | −2.8% of holding | +0.2% | +8.3% | 284,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | McIver Zachariah | officer | Sale | 2,714 @ $13.73 | $37K | −10.4% of holding | +0.2% | +8.3% | 23,286 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | DiRaimondo Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,505 @ $13.73 | $34K | −2.0% of holding | +0.2% | +8.3% | 124,425 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Winter Charles M. | officer | Sale | 2,401 @ $13.73 | $33K | −3.0% of holding | +0.2% | +8.3% | 77,721 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 1,879 @ $13.73 | $26K | −2.2% of holding | +0.2% | +8.3% | 83,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Dobek Maria | officer | Sale | 1,462 @ $13.73 | $20K | −8.7% of holding | +0.2% | +8.3% | 15,373 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $32.85 | $89K | −3.1% of holding | −59.9% | −71.5% | 85,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 633 @ $33.52 | $21K | −0.7% of holding | −59.9% | −71.5% | 84,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 3,333 @ $30.00 | $100K | −3.8% of holding | −51.0% | −62.7% | 84,974 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-28 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 16,665 @ $30.06 | $501K | −16.9% of holding | +17.6% | −56.9% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 2,933 @ $31.95 | $94K | −3.4% of holding | −28.1% | −33.5% | 82,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 400 @ $32.60 | $13K | −0.5% of holding | −28.1% | −33.5% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 3,334 @ $30.00 | $100K | −3.9% of holding | −28.7% | −39.5% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 110,206 @ $31.02 | $3.4M | +1.1% of holding | −8.3% | −32.4% | 10,141,287 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 372,093 @ $30.78 | $11.5M | +3.9% of holding | −4.7% | −35.7% | 10,031,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 304,287 @ $30.56 | $9.3M | +3.3% of holding | −6.6% | −36.0% | 9,621,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 37,455 @ $31.30 | $1.2M | +0.4% of holding | −6.6% | −36.0% | 9,658,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 2,433 @ $31.88 | $78K | −2.8% of holding | −12.2% | −38.5% | 83,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 901 @ $32.85 | $30K | −1.1% of holding | −12.2% | −38.5% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 2,418 @ $42.08 | $102K | −2.8% of holding | −22.7% | −45.1% | 83,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 816 @ $42.77 | $35K | −1.0% of holding | −22.7% | −45.1% | 82,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 100 @ $43.60 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −22.7% | −45.1% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Campbell David Alan | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $60.00 | $300K | −1.7% of holding | −34.0% | −63.1% | 293,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 5,768 @ $54.51 | $314K | −6.2% of holding | −25.3% | −60.8% | 86,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 3,444 @ $55.76 | $192K | −4.0% of holding | −25.3% | −60.8% | 83,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 2,922 @ $53.76 | $157K | −3.1% of holding | −25.3% | −60.8% | 92,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $56.78 | $57K | −1.2% of holding | −25.3% | −60.8% | 82,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Sale | 200 @ $57.37 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | −25.3% | −60.8% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | Campbell David Alan | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $56.19 | $1.4M | −10.3% of holding | −25.9% | −62.2% | 217,054 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Campbell David Alan | director | Gift | 123,840 | 264,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Campbell David Alan | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 388,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Campbell David Alan | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 697,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | CAPPS VICKIE L | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 79,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | DOBMEIER ERIC | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 15,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hernday Natasha | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 11,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kung Winston | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 11,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kung Winston | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Simson Jake | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 11,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Simson Jake | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Barrett Ronald W | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 11,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Barrett Ronald W | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | CAPPS VICKIE L | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | DOBMEIER ERIC | director | Award / grant | 15,500 | 15,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hernday Natasha | director | Award / grant | 5,500 | 15,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Go William | officer | Award / grant | 154,000 | 154,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Go William | officer | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Winter Charles M. | officer | Award / grant | 100,100 | 100,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Campbell David Alan | director | Award / grant | 96,600 | 381,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Campbell David Alan | director | Award / grant | 338,100 | 338,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DiRaimondo Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 31,400 | 155,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DiRaimondo Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 109,900 | 109,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Dobek Maria | officer | Award / grant | 18,935 | 34,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Dobek Maria | officer | Award / grant | 42,600 | 42,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Winter Charles M. | officer | Award / grant | 28,600 | 106,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | McIver Zachariah | officer | Award / grant | 29,000 | 52,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | McIver Zachariah | officer | Award / grant | 101,500 | 101,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Doyle Janeen Noel | officer | Award / grant | 36,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Doyle Janeen Noel | officer | Award / grant | 126,000 | 126,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 88,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 114,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 88,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 118,101 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 98,804 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 9,999 | 92,138 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 9,999 | 77,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Meyer Andrew Hollman | officer | Option exercise | 6,666 | 121,434 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Barrett Ronald W | director | Award / grant | 11,667 | 11,667 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.