Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.21 · now $13.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JACK has typically landed between $10.39 and $16.21 — a range of −21.3% to +22.7% from the issuance price $13.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JACK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.94 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.66–$14.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.39–$16.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −78.8% | −78.8% | +1.4% |
| 2020-02-14 | −73.5% | −73.5% | +1.2% |
| 2020-02-19 | −73.2% | −78.9% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +203.4% | +0.0% | +203.4% |
| 2020-03-19 | +129.2% | −0.2% | +138.8% |
| 2020-03-17 | +126.5% | −20.1% | +126.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+2.3%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
65%
−2.4%
n=20
Apr
45%
+3.2%
n=20
May
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
50%
+2.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.7%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Nov
45%
+2.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.6%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | King Mark James | director | Sale | 5,647 @ $18.59 | $105K | −3.0% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,905 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-21 | King Mark James | director | Sale | 5,626 @ $14.70 | $83K | −2.9% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,552 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | King Mark James | director | Sale | 5,911 @ $12.53 | $74K | −3.0% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,178 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | DIAZ GUILLERMO JR | director | Purchase | 5,962 @ $11.51 | $69K | +40.5% of holding | +45.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,692 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | DIAZ GUILLERMO JR | director | Purchase | 5,962 @ $0.00 | $0 | +40.5% of holding | +45.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,692 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 1,841 @ $12.10 | $22K | −3.4% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | MOUNT CARL | officer | Sale | 1,142 @ $12.10 | $14K | −2.7% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 1,025 @ $12.10 | $12K | −2.5% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 922 @ $12.10 | $11K | −2.2% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | HOOPER DAWN E | officer | Sale | 738 @ $12.10 | $9K | −2.0% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Tucker Lance F. | director | Sale | 1,678 @ $21.83 | $37K | −0.8% of holding | −17.3% | −28.7% | 205,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-28 | Tucker Lance F. | director | Sale | 1,472 @ $21.83 | $32K | −0.7% of holding | −17.3% | −28.7% | 204,068 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-30 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 581 @ $19.46 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | +9.8% | −18.4% | 79,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-30 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 434 @ $19.46 | $8K | −0.8% of holding | +9.8% | −18.4% | 53,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-30 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 292 @ $19.46 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | +9.8% | −18.4% | 41,155 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-30 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 254 @ $19.46 | $5K | −0.6% of holding | +9.8% | −18.4% | 41,067 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 315 @ $20.27 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | +4.7% | −53.3% | 80,056 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 211 @ $20.27 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | +4.7% | −53.3% | 54,076 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 177 @ $20.27 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | +4.7% | −53.3% | 41,447 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 163 @ $20.27 | $3K | −0.4% of holding | +4.7% | −53.3% | 41,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | HOOPER DAWN E | officer | Sale | 236 @ $19.06 | $4K | −1.6% of holding | +17.3% | −44.1% | 14,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Ingram Van | officer | Sale | 127 @ $19.06 | $2K | −2.5% of holding | +17.3% | −44.1% | 4,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 1,732 @ $19.08 | $33K | −3.1% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 53,503 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 1,278 @ $19.08 | $24K | −2.4% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 51,509 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 1,027 @ $19.08 | $20K | −3.0% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 33,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 868 @ $19.08 | $17K | −3.0% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 28,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 758 @ $19.08 | $14K | −2.7% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 27,786 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 716 @ $19.08 | $14K | −1.3% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 52,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 639 @ $19.08 | $12K | −1.9% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 32,640 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 541 @ $19.08 | $10K | −2.0% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 27,193 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | MOUNT CARL | officer | Sale | 518 @ $19.08 | $10K | −2.7% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 18,782 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | HOOPER DAWN E | officer | Sale | 512 @ $19.08 | $10K | −3.3% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 15,087 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 470 @ $19.08 | $9K | −1.7% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 27,053 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 448 @ $19.08 | $9K | −1.3% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 33,279 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 378 @ $19.08 | $7K | −1.3% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 27,734 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 263 @ $19.08 | $5K | −0.9% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 27,523 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Ingram Van | officer | Sale | 204 @ $19.08 | $4K | −3.9% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 5,052 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | HOOPER DAWN E | officer | Sale | 179 @ $19.08 | $3K | −1.1% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 15,599 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Ingram Van | officer | Sale | 147 @ $19.08 | $3K | −2.7% of holding | −5.3% | −51.5% | 5,256 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | MOUNT CARL | officer | Sale | 1,393 @ $19.00 | $26K | −6.7% of holding | +3.2% | −48.7% | 19,300 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Tucker Lance F. | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $17.29 | $86K | +6.3% of holding | +6.5% | −46.9% | 84,555 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $17.55 | $18K | +2.0% of holding | +6.5% | −46.9% | 50,489 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 154 @ $16.38 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | +14.3% | −26.0% | 26,168 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-10 | MOUNT CARL | officer | Sale | 589 @ $19.74 | $12K | −2.8% of holding | −2.6% | −32.2% | 20,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 152 @ $29.07 | $4K | −0.6% of holding | −28.1% | −59.6% | 25,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-20 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 328 @ $39.16 | $13K | −1.1% of holding | −16.6% | −58.0% | 29,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | HARRIS DARIN S | director | Sale | 9,141 @ $40.52 | $370K | −6.0% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 144,333 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | HARRIS DARIN S | director | Sale | 3,701 @ $40.52 | $150K | −2.6% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 138,803 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | HARRIS DARIN S | director | Sale | 1,829 @ $40.52 | $74K | −1.3% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 142,504 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 1,566 @ $40.52 | $63K | −4.9% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 30,541 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 1,045 @ $40.52 | $42K | −5.6% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 17,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 880 @ $40.52 | $36K | −5.0% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 16,706 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 803 @ $40.52 | $33K | −4.7% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 16,213 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | LINDERMAN TIMOTHY T | officer | Sale | 749 @ $40.52 | $30K | −4.5% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 15,855 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 579 @ $40.52 | $23K | −1.9% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 29,648 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Sale | 433 @ $40.52 | $18K | −2.5% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 16,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Sale | 314 @ $40.52 | $13K | −1.0% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 30,227 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Sale | 292 @ $40.52 | $12K | −1.8% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 16,237 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | Piano Steven | officer | Sale | 253 @ $40.52 | $10K | −1.6% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 15,799 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-23 | LINDERMAN TIMOTHY T | officer | Sale | 248 @ $40.52 | $10K | −1.6% of holding | +0.7% | −61.5% | 15,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | MYERS JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 1,494 | 50,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MYERS JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 2,196 | 48,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | King Mark James | director | Award / grant | 186,901 | 199,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Tucker Lance F. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,889 | 197,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | King Mark James | director | Award / grant | 12,188 | 12,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | MYERS JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 45,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | KLEINER MADELEINE | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 34,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | MURPHY MICHAEL W | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 85,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | YEUNG MAN WEIN VIVIEN | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 26,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ramirez Enrique | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 13,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DIAZ GUILLERMO JR | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 14,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Smolinisky Alan | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 197,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | GOEBEL DAVID | director | Award / grant | 8,235 | 47,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | MYERS JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 1,355 | 46,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Tucker Lance F. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,434 | 202,634 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Smolinisky Alan | director | Exercise | 20,000 | 160,646 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Smolinisky Alan | director | Exercise | 200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Smolinisky Alan | director | Code E | 237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Smolinisky Alan | director | Code E | 95 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Smolinisky Alan | director | Code E | 32 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Award / grant | 28,862 | 80,371 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | HOOPER DAWN E | officer | Award / grant | 21,647 | 36,498 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Award / grant | 21,647 | 54,287 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Award / grant | 14,431 | 41,624 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Tucker Lance F. | director | Award / grant | 122,663 | 207,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | MOUNT CARL | officer | Award / grant | 23,090 | 41,872 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Ingram Van | officer | Award / grant | 14,431 | 19,356 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Piano Steven | officer | Award / grant | 14,431 | 41,484 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Award / grant | 2,812 | 34,754 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Award / grant | 2,812 | 28,980 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | Piano Steven | officer | Award / grant | 2,812 | 28,544 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Award / grant | 4,746 | 55,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Award / grant | 20,169 | 49,489 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Ostrom Ryan Lee | officer | Award / grant | 20,169 | 20,169 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | SUPER SARAH L | officer | Award / grant | 15,127 | 31,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Award / grant | 10,085 | 26,322 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | COOK RICHARD D | officer | Award / grant | 10,085 | 10,085 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | LINDERMAN TIMOTHY T | officer | Award / grant | 10,085 | 25,541 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | LINDERMAN TIMOTHY T | officer | Award / grant | 10,085 | 10,085 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | MOUNT CARL | officer | Award / grant | 10,085 | 21,282 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.