Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.46 · now $6.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IVR has typically landed between $5.33 and $7.36 — a range of −17.5% to +13.9% from the issuance price $6.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,309 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-06-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IVR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.47 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.11–$6.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.33–$7.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-04 | −88.8% | −88.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −86.4% | −88.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −86.0% | −86.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +112.8% | −4.1% | +112.8% |
| 2020-05-08 | +99.7% | −6.1% | +108.2% |
| 2020-05-13 | +93.8% | +0.0% | +121.8% |
4,309 overlapping windows · 2009-06-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Gregson Mark William | officer | Purchase | 1,750 @ $8.03 | $14K | ownership Δ n/a | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Waldner Robert | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $8.45 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.7% | −18.5% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Fleshman Robert L | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $24.72 | $49K | −100.0% of holding | +4.7% | +7.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Graham Peter M | director | Award / grant | 10,653 | 10,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fleshman Robert L | director | Award / grant | 13,157 | 32,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Day John | director | Disposition | 5,026 | 39,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kelley Katharine | director | Award / grant | 13,157 | 47,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | LIU DON H | director | Award / grant | 13,157 | 52,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | McMullan Wes | director | Award / grant | 13,157 | 35,391 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Fleshman Robert L | director | Award / grant | 13,689 | 19,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | LIU DON H | director | Award / grant | 13,689 | 39,086 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Day John | director | Award / grant | 13,689 | 44,594 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Handlon Carolyn B | director | Award / grant | 13,689 | 44,614 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Kelley Katharine | director | Award / grant | 13,689 | 34,243 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | McMullan Wes | director | Award / grant | 13,689 | 22,234 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-27 | Day John | director | Other acquisition | 5,300 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.