ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $267.33 · now $267.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ITW has typically landed between $244.58 and $292.20 — a range of −8.5% to +9.3% from the issuance price $267.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($267.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ITW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $267.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$244.58worst · -8.5%$292.2best · +9.3%
  • now $267.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $269.21 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $258.99–$279.43
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $244.58–$292.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−37.7%−37.7%+0.0%
2008-09-26−35.8%−35.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−33.8%−33.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+32.7%+0.0%+35.9%
2009-03-05+25.1%+0.0%+25.6%
2022-07-14+23.6%+0.0%+23.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$81.4B
market cap
$10.77
EPS (TTM)
26.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$16.0B
'20'25
Net income$3.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr95.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.78
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $267.33$187.60$340.69
  • DCF (intrinsic)$198.16
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$330.13
  • Analyst target · range $254.00–$301.00$276.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$267.33

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.3%
n=19
May
58%
−0.4%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
94%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
44%
+1.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$297$2372026-08-19: 4 insider sales, $11.9M — SANTI ERNEST SCOTT …2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $80K — Pigozzo Matteo C.2026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Scanlon Jennifer F.2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $5.0M — Lawler Mary Katherine2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Beck Axel2026-02-04: 6 insider sales, $48.7M — SANTI ERNEST SCOTT …2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $1.7M — SMITH DAVID BYRON JR2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $373K — STROBEL PAMELA B2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL J2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $373K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $1.7M2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $55.0M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $200K2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $12.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Pigozzo Matteo C. — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Scanlon Jennifer F. — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lawler Mary Katherine — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Beck Axel — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SANTI ERNEST SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH DAVID BYRON JR — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STROBEL PAMELA B — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL J — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale22,471 @ $286.37$6.4M−7.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open285,248Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale8,928 @ $288.22$2.6M−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open268,178Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale8,142 @ $287.35$2.3M−2.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open277,106Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale1,890 @ $289.19$547K−0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open266,288Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13Pigozzo Matteo C.officerSale277 @ $289.22$80K−7.5% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open3,394Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02Scanlon Jennifer F.directorPurchase806 @ $247.99$200K+95.3% of holding+12.1%not yet — horizon still open1,652Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06Lawler Mary KatherinedirectorSale17,279 @ $291.90$5.0M−37.5% of holding−5.0%−11.0%28,781Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-05Beck AxelofficerSale4,223 @ $290.22$1.2M−42.2% of holding−4.2%−10.5%5,789Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale57,361 @ $292.72$16.8M−17.9% of holding−2.0%−9.3%262,697Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale47,885 @ $288.72$13.8M−11.2% of holding−2.0%−9.3%378,226Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale20,833 @ $290.65$6.1M−5.8% of holding−2.0%−9.3%339,529Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale19,471 @ $291.90$5.7M−5.7% of holding−2.0%−9.3%320,058Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale17,864 @ $289.85$5.2M−4.7% of holding−2.0%−9.3%360,362Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale3,931 @ $293.43$1.2M−1.5% of holding−2.0%−9.3%258,766Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10SMITH DAVID BYRON JRdirectorPurchase6,709 @ $250.13$1.7Mownership Δ n/a−0.4%−5.7%6,709Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05STROBEL PAMELA BdirectorSale1,521 @ $245.25$373K−3.7% of holding+0.7%−4.2%39,249Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-11SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL JofficerSale6,802 @ $265.08$1.8M−39.7% of holding−7.1%+0.2%10,314Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-02SMITH DAVID BYRON JRdirectorPurchase872 @ $241.16$210K+0.7% of holding+1.3%−12.2%122,884Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07O'HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER AdirectorSale43,017 @ $274.27$11.8M−41.5% of holding−6.6%−15.0%60,549Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07Larsen Michael MdirectorSale30,163 @ $271.53$8.2M−37.4% of holding−6.6%−15.0%50,502Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07Larsen Michael MdirectorSale11,309 @ $270.52$3.1M−12.3% of holding−6.6%−15.0%80,665Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07O'HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER AdirectorSale5,436 @ $275.11$1.5M−9.0% of holding−6.6%−15.0%55,113Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale48,195 @ $264.61$12.8M−14.8% of holding+2.0%−5.2%276,393Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale16,169 @ $265.44$4.3M−5.9% of holding+2.0%−5.2%260,224Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale9,089 @ $263.60$2.4M−2.7% of holding+2.0%−5.2%324,588Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale37,075 @ $263.08$9.8M−11.5% of holding+3.7%−4.3%286,604Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale26,380 @ $263.88$7.0M−9.2% of holding+3.7%−4.3%260,224Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorSale6,545 @ $262.20$1.7M−2.0% of holding+3.7%−4.3%323,679Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09SMITH DAVID BYRON JRdirectorPurchase635 @ $275.20$175K+0.5% of holding−6.4%−9.6%121,811Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

183 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorOption exercise41,431307,719Form 4
2026-08-19SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorOption exercise41,431124,295Form 4
2026-08-07SMITH DAVID BYRON JRdirectorAward / grant13030,372Form 4
2026-08-07SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorAward / grant118266,288Form 4
2026-08-07Scanlon Jennifer F.directorAward / grant1181,776Form 4
2026-08-07CROWN SUSANdirectorAward / grant5859,219Form 4
2026-05-08SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorAward / grant1,883266,128Form 4
2026-05-08SMITH DAVID BYRON JRdirectorAward / grant91730,242Form 4
2026-05-08Scanlon Jennifer F.directorAward / grant846846Form 4
2026-05-08CROWN SUSANdirectorAward / grant83359,034Form 4
2026-05-08IRICK JAIME AdirectorAward / grant7652,286Form 4
2026-05-08Henderson Jay LdirectorAward / grant76525,088Form 4
2026-05-08LENNY RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant76521,965Form 4
2026-05-08GRIFFITH JAMES WdirectorAward / grant76524,127Form 4
2026-05-08STROBEL PAMELA BdirectorAward / grant76539,374Form 4
2026-05-08Brutto Daniel JdirectorAward / grant76523,951Form 4
2026-05-08Grier Kelly JdirectorAward / grant7653,332Form 4
2026-05-08Ford Darrell LdirectorAward / grant7657,787Form 4
2026-02-13SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL JofficerAward / grant3,2253,225Form 4
2026-02-13Rauch Christopher P.officerAward / grant5,8505,850Form 4
2026-02-13Carbonell Javier GraciaofficerAward / grant10,12010,120Form 4
2026-02-13Beck AxelofficerAward / grant10,12010,120Form 4
2026-02-13Hartzell Patricia A.officerAward / grant10,43610,436Form 4
2026-02-13Escoe T. KennethdirectorAward / grant10,12010,120Form 4
2026-02-13Lawler Mary KatherinedirectorAward / grant12,33312,333Form 4
2026-02-13Larsen Michael MdirectorAward / grant27,83027,830Form 4
2026-02-13Szafranski SharondirectorAward / grant10,12010,120Form 4
2026-02-13O'HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER AdirectorAward / grant74,32074,320Form 4
2026-02-13Silva Guilherme de FigueiredoofficerAward / grant8,5388,538Form 4
2026-02-13Thibeault Mark A.officerAward / grant6,9576,957Form 4
2026-02-12SANTI ERNEST SCOTTdirectorWithheld for tax4,241264,216Form 4
2026-02-12O'HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER AdirectorWithheld for tax2,61059,527Form 4
2026-02-12Larsen Michael MdirectorWithheld for tax2,34854,578Form 4
2026-02-12Lawler Mary KatherinedirectorWithheld for tax1,21430,307Form 4
2026-02-12Beck AxelofficerWithheld for tax1,0637,124Form 4
2026-02-12Carbonell Javier GraciaofficerWithheld for tax9233,630Form 4
2026-02-12Szafranski SharondirectorWithheld for tax6318,663Form 4
2026-02-12Hartzell Patricia A.officerWithheld for tax5693,965Form 4
2026-02-12Escoe T. KennethdirectorWithheld for tax5688,150Form 4
2026-02-12SCHEUNEMAN RANDALL JofficerWithheld for tax25310,864Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Shelley Moore CapitoSenatesale2026-03-042026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-05$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-09-172023-03-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.