ITUBItaú Unibanco Holding S.A.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.29 · now $8.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ITUB has typically landed between $7.27 and $9.73 — a range of −12.3% to +17.4% from the issuance price $8.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ITUB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$7.27worst · -12.3%$9.73best · +17.4%
  • now $8.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.43 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.89–$8.97
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.27–$9.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−55.9%−55.9%+3.1%
2008-09-26−53.2%−55.1%+5.0%
2008-09-24−46.3%−46.3%+7.9%
3 best
2020-05-07+56.6%−1.5%+56.6%
2016-02-18+52.5%+0.0%+52.5%
2016-02-19+51.9%+0.0%+52.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.9%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.8%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.7%
n=20
May
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
70%
+4.1%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Oct
65%
+3.1%
n=20
Nov
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$62026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $626K — Orestes Vanzo Carlos2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $494K — Orestes Vanzo Carlos2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $376K — Guillinet Fajerman Sergio2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $189K — Guillinet Fajerman Sergio2026-04-14: 1 insider sale, $469K — Guillinet Fajerman Sergio2026-04-08: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Teixeira Rodrigues Andre Luis2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $494K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $626K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Orestes Vanzo Carlos — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Orestes Vanzo Carlos — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Guillinet Fajerman Sergio — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Guillinet Fajerman Sergio — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Guillinet Fajerman Sergio — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Teixeira Rodrigues Andre Luis — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Orestes Vanzo CarlosofficerSale74,643 @ $8.38$626K−7.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open933,371Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07Orestes Vanzo CarlosofficerSale60,000 @ $8.24$494K−5.6% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open1,008,014Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17Guillinet Fajerman SergioofficerSale39,477 @ $9.53$376K−3.2% of holding−19.8%not yet — horizon still open1,205,642Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-15Guillinet Fajerman SergioofficerSale20,000 @ $9.45$189K−1.6% of holding−20.5%not yet — horizon still open1,245,119Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-14Guillinet Fajerman SergioofficerSale50,000 @ $9.38$469K−3.8% of holding−22.5%not yet — horizon still open1,265,119Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-08Teixeira Rodrigues Andre LuisofficerSale182,800 @ $8.82$1.6M−10.0% of holding−15.4%not yet — horizon still open1,637,511Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08Santana Maria Helena dos Santos Fernandes dedirectorAward / grant20,998203,415Form 4
2026-05-08Lutz Marcos MdirectorAward / grant20,99851,503Form 4
2026-05-08Villela Marino RicardodirectorAward / grant48,460248,758Form 4
2026-05-08Gon Cesar NivaldodirectorAward / grant20,998162,106Form 4
2026-05-08Antunes Veras PaulodirectorAward / grant20,99879,488Form 4
2026-05-08Bloisi Rocha FabriciodirectorAward / grant20,99879,488Form 4
2026-05-08Bodin de Moraes Pedro LuizdirectorAward / grant20,998724,792Form 4
2026-05-08Bracher CandidodirectorAward / grant20,9987,007,491Form 4
2026-05-08Moreira Salles JoaodirectorAward / grant20,998319,759Form 4
2026-05-08Moreira Salles PedrodirectorAward / grant75,92312,214,047Form 4
2026-05-08Egydio Setubal AlfredodirectorAward / grant20,9981,510,088Form 4
2026-05-08Egydio Setubal RobertodirectorAward / grant75,9231,181,004Form 4
2026-05-08de Mattos Barretto Villela Ana LuciadirectorAward / grant20,998277,809Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.