ITGartner, Inc.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $191.57 · now $191.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IT has typically landed between $164.32 and $216.82 — a range of −14.2% to +13.2% from the issuance price $191.57.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($191.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $191.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$164.32worst · -14.2%$216.82best · +13.2%
  • now $191.57 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $191.77 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $181.28–$202.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $164.32–$216.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−46.3%−46.3%+0.3%
2020-02-18−45.4%−45.4%+1.8%
2020-02-21−45.3%−46.5%+0.0%
3 best
2026-07-22+46.6%+0.0%+46.6%
2026-07-23+46.5%+0.0%+46.5%
2026-07-10+45.0%−0.9%+45.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$9.4B
market cap
$10.12
EPS (TTM)
13.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$6.5B
'20'25
Net income$729M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr227.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr11.31
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $191.57$97.01$430.38
  • DCF (intrinsic)$407.39
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$346.15
  • Analyst target · range $120.00–$240.00$167.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$191.57

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
42%
−2.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.6%
n=19
May
68%
+3.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
79%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
47%
+2.7%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
44%
+0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$264$1262026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $644K — Kranich Robin B2026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $141K — Jain Akhil2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $229K — Genovese Yvonne2026-08-07: 2 insider sales, $357K — Herkes Claire, FUCHS ANNE SUTHERLAND2026-02-05: 1 insider purchase, $8K — Rinello John J2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $100K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $26K2025-12: 7 open-market purchases, $9.9M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $135K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $8K2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $1.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kranich Robin B — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Jain Akhil — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Genovese Yvonne — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Herkes Claire — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FUCHS ANNE SUTHERLAND — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rinello John J — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Kranich Robin BofficerSale3,278 @ $196.50$644K−13.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open20,358Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-24Jain AkhilofficerSale700 @ $201.73$141K−7.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,130Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Genovese YvonneofficerSale1,205 @ $190.06$229K−16.3% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open6,208Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Herkes ClaireofficerSale1,039 @ $190.71$198K−16.5% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open5,252Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07FUCHS ANNE SUTHERLANDdirectorSale860 @ $184.30$159K−9.6% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open8,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-05Rinello John JofficerPurchase50 @ $154.13$8Kownership Δ n/a+9.3%+7.4%50Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

294 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11GRABE WILLIAM OdirectorGift6721,896Form 4
2026-08-31Kranich Robin BofficerOther acquisition3120,389Form 4
2026-08-31HALL EUGENE AdirectorOther acquisition311,188,228Form 4
2026-08-31Rupani AltafofficerOther acquisition191,199Form 4
2026-08-31Safian CraigofficerOther acquisition1883,090Form 4
2026-07-01Serra EileendirectorAward / grant2153,362Form 4
2026-07-01FERGUSON DIANA SUEdirectorAward / grant201282Form 4
2026-07-01Bisson PeterdirectorAward / grant1964,053Form 4
2026-07-01Bousa Edward PeterdirectorAward / grant196313Form 4
2026-07-01BRESSLER RICHARD JdirectorAward / grant19621,559Form 4
2026-07-01CESAN RAUL EdirectorAward / grant1871,250Form 4
2026-07-01PAGLIUCA STEPHEN GdirectorAward / grant1871,855Form 4
2026-07-01GRABE WILLIAM OdirectorAward / grant18247,379Form 4
2026-07-01Rus Daniela LdirectorAward / grant182290Form 4
2026-07-01DYKSTRA KAREN EdirectorAward / grant138646Form 4
2026-07-01GUTIERREZ JOSE MdirectorAward / grant112338Form 4
2026-07-01FUCHS ANNE SUTHERLANDdirectorAward / grant10029,677Form 4
2026-07-01GRABE WILLIAM OdirectorOther acquisition18247,197Form 4
2026-07-01CESAN RAUL EdirectorOther acquisition18754,083Form 4
2026-07-01PAGLIUCA STEPHEN GdirectorOther acquisition187112,602Form 4
2026-07-01GRABE WILLIAM OdirectorOther acquisition1821,224Form 4
2026-07-01FUCHS ANNE SUTHERLANDdirectorOther acquisition10029,577Form 4
2026-07-01FUCHS ANNE SUTHERLANDdirectorOther acquisition1008,957Form 4
2026-07-01GUTIERREZ JOSE MdirectorOther acquisition1122,951Form 4
2026-07-01CESAN RAUL EdirectorOther acquisition1871,063Form 4
2026-07-01FERGUSON DIANA SUEdirectorOther acquisition2012,807Form 4
2026-07-01PAGLIUCA STEPHEN GdirectorOther acquisition1871,668Form 4
2026-07-01FERGUSON DIANA SUEdirectorOther acquisition20181Form 4
2026-07-01GUTIERREZ JOSE MdirectorOther acquisition112226Form 4
2026-06-30Rinello John JofficerWithheld for tax223,724Form 4
2026-06-30Rinello John JofficerOption exercise7171Form 4
2026-06-30Rinello John JofficerOption exercise713,746Form 4
2026-06-08Serra EileendirectorOption exercise1,7444,076Form 4
2026-06-08Serra EileendirectorOption exercise1,7440Form 4
2026-06-01Serra EileendirectorOption exercise7050Form 4
2026-06-01Serra EileendirectorOption exercise7052,332Form 4
2026-05-29van Ham DickofficerOther acquisition38902Form 4
2026-05-29HALL EUGENE AdirectorOther acquisition381,188,197Form 4
2026-05-29Kranich Robin BofficerOther acquisition3823,636Form 4
2026-05-29Rupani AltafofficerOther acquisition231,180Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.