Issued 2026-09-25 at $405.18 · now $405.18 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ISRG has typically landed between $351.77 and $464.67 — a range of −13.2% to +14.7% from the issuance price $405.18.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($405.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ISRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $405.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $405.18 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $405.12 (-0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $378.68–$431.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $351.77–$464.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −40.0% | −40.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-07 | +64.5% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
| 2009-07-10 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +67.5% |
| 2009-07-09 | +60.4% | −0.6% | +66.4% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$126.14
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$241.20
- Analyst target · range $400.00–$651.00$500.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$405.18
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Sale | 546 @ $374.44 | $204K | −34.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Sale | 543 @ $374.44 | $203K | −34.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 25 @ $365.79 | $9K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 764 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 23 @ $347.66 | $8K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 23 @ $350.20 | $8K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 812 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 46 @ $361.23 | $17K | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 77 @ $375.57 | $29K | −8.0% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 881 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 77 @ $396.37 | $31K | −7.4% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 77 @ $394.26 | $30K | −6.9% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,035 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 77 @ $394.00 | $30K | −6.5% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 77 @ $390.67 | $30K | −6.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | GUTHART GARY S | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $400.00 | $4.0M | −0.8% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,245,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Ladd Amy L | director | Sale | 72 @ $393.10 | $28K | −28.7% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 179 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Ladd Amy L | director | Sale | 400 @ $379.00 | $152K | −61.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | LOEB GARY | officer | Sale | 400 @ $379.00 | $152K | −7.0% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-31 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 28 @ $351.00 | $10K | −2.2% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,266 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 28 @ $346.83 | $10K | −2.1% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 28 @ $360.21 | $10K | −2.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,322 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 28 @ $365.58 | $10K | −2.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 28 @ $344.00 | $10K | −2.0% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 25 @ $414.13 | $10K | −1.7% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 23 @ $412.16 | $9K | −1.6% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | LOEB GARY | officer | Sale | 400 @ $424.14 | $170K | −6.5% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,720 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 23 @ $424.14 | $10K | −1.6% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,454 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 23 @ $421.13 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 23 @ $420.12 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Jeddi Iman | officer | Sale | 5,625 @ $420.55 | $2.4M | −46.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 18 @ $439.80 | $8K | −1.2% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,523 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-21 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 18 @ $446.04 | $8K | −1.2% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 18 @ $440.38 | $8K | −1.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,559 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 18 @ $440.70 | $8K | −1.1% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 18 @ $422.47 | $8K | −1.1% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | LOEB GARY | officer | Sale | 400 @ $446.95 | $179K | −6.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | Ladd Amy L | director | Sale | 119 @ $463.50 | $55K | −49.8% of holding | −12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Ladd Amy L | director | Sale | 500 @ $473.46 | $237K | −67.7% of holding | −15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 105 @ $493.95 | $52K | −100.0% of holding | −7.0% | −40.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 645 @ $485.01 | $313K | −28.6% of holding | −6.3% | −42.6% | 1,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 648 @ $490.19 | $318K | −22.3% of holding | −5.9% | −40.3% | 2,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 648 @ $495.20 | $321K | −18.2% of holding | −5.9% | −39.6% | 2,906 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 2,362 @ $498.68 | $1.2M | −39.9% of holding | −5.8% | −38.1% | 3,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 4,728 @ $487.18 | $2.3M | −92.0% of holding | −3.2% | −38.3% | 409 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 648 @ $488.10 | $316K | −9.9% of holding | −3.2% | −38.3% | 5,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Sale | 118 @ $487.18 | $57K | −10.3% of holding | −3.2% | −38.3% | 1,026 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 125 @ $492.59 | $62K | −2.4% of holding | −2.1% | −36.4% | 5,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 2,345 @ $499.71 | $1.2M | −85.1% of holding | −2.5% | −38.7% | 409 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Sale | 249 @ $499.71 | $124K | −21.5% of holding | −2.5% | −38.7% | 909 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | WADORS PATRICIA L | director | Sale | 220 @ $499.71 | $110K | −100.0% of holding | −2.5% | −38.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 421 @ $494.96 | $208K | −50.7% of holding | −0.5% | −32.1% | 409 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Sale | 133 @ $494.96 | $66K | −16.8% of holding | −0.5% | −32.1% | 660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 105 @ $494.65 | $52K | −11.2% of holding | +0.6% | −31.2% | 830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 126 @ $520.02 | $66K | −100.0% of holding | −1.1% | −38.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | GUTHART GARY S | director | Sale | 24,500 @ $530.10 | $13.0M | −86.9% of holding | −2.6% | −38.2% | 3,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | GUTHART GARY S | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $531.53 | $744K | −8.2% of holding | −2.6% | −38.2% | 15,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | GUTHART GARY S | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $531.52 | $744K | −8.2% of holding | −2.6% | −38.2% | 15,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 125 @ $532.61 | $67K | −100.0% of holding | −2.6% | −38.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 105 @ $532.61 | $56K | −100.0% of holding | −2.6% | −38.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 464 @ $548.49 | $254K | −78.0% of holding | −5.2% | −37.6% | 131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 464 @ $548.49 | $254K | −51.2% of holding | −5.2% | −37.6% | 443 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Brosius Mark | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $547.36 | $2.5M | −83.2% of holding | −0.7% | −33.8% | 907 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Curet Myriam | director | Sale | 104 @ $559.90 | $58K | −100.0% of holding | +1.6% | −34.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
232 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Option exercise | 543 | 1,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Option exercise | 546 | 1,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Option exercise | 543 | 1,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Widman Fredrik | officer | Option exercise | 546 | 1,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Rosa David J. | director | Withheld for tax | 947 | 246,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Rosa David J. | director | Option exercise | 1,910 | 247,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Rosa David J. | director | Option exercise | 1,910 | 5,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rosa David J. | director | Withheld for tax | 674 | 245,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rosa David J. | director | Option exercise | 1,358 | 246,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rosa David J. | director | Option exercise | 1,358 | 1,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jeddi Iman | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 12,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jeddi Iman | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ladd Amy L | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kolli Sreelakshmi | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Reed Monica P | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Leonard Keith R | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Johnson Amal M | director | Option exercise | 531 | 13,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | GUTHART GARY S | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kolli Sreelakshmi | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | CHEW LEWIS | director | Option exercise | 531 | 1,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Johnson Amal M | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Leonard Keith R | director | Option exercise | 531 | 901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kolli Sreelakshmi | director | Option exercise | 531 | 1,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Leonard Keith R | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Beery Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ladd Amy L | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Reed Monica P | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | CHEW LEWIS | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | NACHTSHEIM JAMI K | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | NACHTSHEIM JAMI K | director | Option exercise | 531 | 6,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BARRATT CRAIG H | director | Option exercise | 750 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Reed Monica P | director | Option exercise | 531 | 2,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | NACHTSHEIM JAMI K | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Beery Joseph C | director | Award / grant | 554 | 554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Beery Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 531 | 3,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BARRATT CRAIG H | director | Award / grant | 643 | 643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | CHEW LEWIS | director | Option exercise | 531 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BARRATT CRAIG H | director | Option exercise | 750 | 27,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ladd Amy L | director | Option exercise | 531 | 651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Curet Myriam | director | Option exercise | 105 | 105 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.